NFL Week 4 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Sunday Night Football (Chiefs vs. Buccaneers)
The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers in a Super Bowl rematch on Sunday Night Football. It doesn't get much better than Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes. Here are my favorite prop bets for Thursday night's game.
Mike Evans Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-113 FanDuel)
Mike Evans has been extremely productive as Tom Brady's top receiving target during their time together. Evans has exceeded 68.5 receiving yards in 12 of his last 20 games played. Throughout Evans' nine-year NFL career, he averages 76.1 receiving yards per game. Additionally, Kansas City is 18th in the NFL in yards allowed to wide receivers with an average of 159.0. Brady and the Buccaneers are scarce at the wide receiver position at the current moment, so Evans should receive a lot of volume. I'll be betting the over on Evans' receiving yards prop.
Jerick McKinnon Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-117 Caesars)
Whether Jerick McKinnon is actually good or the Chiefs backfield is really that bad, McKinnon has earned a share of the carries. In his last seven games as a Chief, Mckinnon has surpassed 17.5 rushing yards in six of them (85.7%). I understand that the Buccaneers’ defense is elite at stopping the run; however, McKinnon only needs four to five carries to hit the 18 rushing yards mark. McKinnon should be capable of providing a few explosive carries when given the opportunity in Sunday night's game. I will be taking over 17.5 rushing yards for Jerick McKinnon.
Travis Kelce Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-117 BetRivers)
Travis Kelce is the undeniable premier receiving option on this Chiefs team. Kelce has averaged 71.0 receiving yards per game over his career and averaged over 67.5 in each of the last seven seasons. Kelce's target share has also improved from the 2021 season to now, increasing from 22.3% to 22.9%. So far this season, the Buccaneers rank 23rd in the NFL for receiving yards given up to the tight end position. Kelce will look to take advantage of a Buc's defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL when guarding tight ends. I will be betting over 67.5 receiving yards for Kelce in Sunday Night Football.
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