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NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: Cowboys vs. Giants

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Welcome to the ultimate Week 4 NFL sports betting breakdown from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to navigating every twist and turn on the Week 4 NFL slate. As we kick off Week 4, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated NFC East showdown on Thursday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to get your season started with a bang. This is just a taste of what's coming when the FULL BettingPros Week 4 Primer drops later this week. Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Boys vs. the G-Men.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Primer

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Sides:

  • The Cowboys have won 13 of their last 14 games against the Giants.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games following a loss.
  • In seven of the Cowboys’ last eight games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Giants are 7-4 ATS over their last 11 games.
  • The Giants were the 6th-best team ATS at home in 2023 (5-2-1). They are 0-1 ATS at home this season.

Totals:

  • Each of the Cowboys’ last five games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • 12 of the Cowboys' last 17 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 11 of 15 games through the air.
  • These teams have averaged just under 46 points in three games played this season.
  • Seven of the Giants' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in six of their last nine games.
  • The team is 5-6 toward the over in the Giants' last 11 games.

Overall:

Do the Dallas Cowboys know they don't have to play in blowouts? Because three weeks into the season, that's all we have seen them do. Don't let last week's late comeback fool you. Big D was being dominated at home, but the Baltimore Ravens took their foot off the gas. The score was 28-6 at the start of the fourth quarter. The score should have been 31-6 had it not been for a missed Justin Tucker field goal.

Still, this Mike Zimmer-led defense has a long way to go, especially against the run. And opposing teams know this because they are running right at the teeth of this defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, opposing offenses have called run plays against the Cowboys on a league-high 51% of plays this season, +11.4% more often than expected (4th-highest in the NFL). The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 54.4% success rate against designed runs and +24.3 rushing EPA, more than triple the next closest team (Rams: +6.1).

The Giants are going to try and run the ball with Devin Singletary to keep the Cowboys' No.1-ranked pressure rate away from quarterback Daniel Jones.

But that's easier said than done if the Giants’ defense can't stop the Cowboys’ passing game. Because I'm confident that's exactly what Dak Prescott is going to do. Dallas won't be looking to run.

They can't run the ball with their current stable of RBs. Ezekiel Elliott is cooked, and Rico Dowdle hasn't shown enough in his limited sample size. Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys have generated the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected (-82 RYOE) and the 3rd-fewest yards after contact per carry (2.4) in the NFL this season.

The Cowboys are built to play from ahead, and that's how they will approach this matchup.

If Big Blue finds themselves down quickly, they might not have options other than abandoning the run game. And that's how this game turns into a blowout, at the expense of the G-Men.

Entering Week 3, the Giants pass defense was allowing an 80% completion rate. After facing Deshaun Watson in Week 3 that number fell to 70%. I'm not sure last week's performance is truly indicative of what the Giants' pass defense is. Against Sam Darnold and rookie Jayden Daniels, they were overmatched.

And let's not overstate New York's offense either.

The Giants got shut out in the second half of last week's win. After their third touchdown score in Week 3 (because of a Browns red-zone turnover) they proceeded to fumble, miss a FG, and punt five consecutive times.

Last note. There's no bigger discrepancy with kickers than in this matchup. The Cowboys have the No. 1 kicker in the NFL who can nail a three-pointer from virtually anywhere. Meanwhile, the Giants have newly acquired kicker Greg Joseph, who missed his only attempt versus the Browns.

When I first looked ahead to this matchup, I was heavily on the side of Dallas -4.5. The line has since moved closer to DAL -6 which I think is correct. I projected this as a DAL-7 game in my BettingPros projections.

This game invites chaos from both sides. Dallas can't stop the run, but the Giants' OL isn't necessarily known for great run-blocking.

Per Next Gen Stats, Giants rushers have been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 46.7% of carries this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

Chaos is coming, and I think that will negatively impact New York more than Dallas.

Give me the Cowboys to win in a rout against one of the worst teams in the NFL. A simple points-per-game comparison.

  • Dallas - 26 (6th)
  • New York - 15 (29th)

If we get the "average" performances from these teams, it's no contest.

As for the total, I'll opt for the under. Prime time under trend and a potential one-sided effort isn't a recipe for massive points. Especially with value at a number as high as 45.5 (below the average of these teams scoring this season).

Player Props:

Per DraftKings Sportsbook

  • CeeDee Lamb has scored at least one touchdown in nine of the Cowboys' last 10 games as favorites. Lamb has recorded 90+ receiving yards in each of the Cowboys' last four games as favorites.
  • Lamb had a low target share in Week 3, finishing with four catches for 67 yards on seven targets (14% target share). He was visibly upset about his lack of involvement, and I'd bet they get him more involved from the get-go against the Giants. And that includes him as a potential first-TD candidate.
  • Devin Singletary has scored a touchdown in five of his six previous appearances against NFC East opponents.
  • Brandin Cooks has scored a touchdown in each of the Cowboys' last three road games. He saw several red-zone targets last week to no avail.
  • As I mentioned earlier, Zeke is cooked. Last week, Rico Dowdle led the team in rushing with eight carries for 32 yards. Elliot had just three carries for six yards. Dowdle was used more as a receiver, with five targets and three catches for 24 yards. He led the backfield with a 46% snap rate. Elliott fell to third in the pecking order of snaps - at just a 19% snap rate. It has dropped for three straight weeks. Slam the rushing yards under.
  • Per Next Gen Stats, Daniel Jones has recorded the 5th-most designed QB rushes this season (9), resulting in the 4th-most such yards (40). The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 83 yards to designed QB rushes this season (+28 RYOE, also the most in the NFL). If he's running for his life, he is bound to pick up some rushing yards along the way.
  • Rookie tight end Theo Johnson's usage remained near elite (80% route participation), and he came close to a red zone touchdown from Jones in Week 3. If the Giants get close to scoring in the red zone, we could see the rookie TE punch it in.

My Picks:

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