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NFL Week 5 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below, I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone with a TD this week (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my results from the 2022 and 2023 seasons to date (assuming one unit per prop).

(Data per Fantasy Points Data | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

Season Week Units ROI Record
All Time -9.3 -5.4% 79 – 139
2022  All +8.8 5.2% 68 – 102
2023 1  -2.2  -16.5% 4 – 9 
2023 2 -1.9 -15.4% 4 – 8
2023 3 -3.1 -25.8% 3 – 9
2023 4 -11.0 -100% 0 – 11

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Best NFL Week 5 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

The Bengals offense continued to struggle last week in a 27-3 loss to the Titans as they dropped to 1-3. They are scoring 12.3 points per game on the season, second worst in the NFL. Burrow’s calf injury can partially be to blame for the slow start. That said, the Bengals are still 3-point favorites on the road in Arizona. Expect the Bengals to lean on the ground game this week. The Cardinals are tied for the worst in the league in total rushing TDs allowed and are giving up 132 yards per game on the ground (24th in the NFL). Mixon has been the clear lead back, averaging 17 touches per game through 4 weeks.

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons

Bijan draws a favorable matchup this week against a Texans defense that has allowed the third most rushing TDs to RBs in the league. Robinson has been the focal point of the offense for the Falcons this season. He already has two 100+ yard games on the ground and leads the team with 19 receptions. He hasn’t scored since Week 1, but will be a consistent threat every week given his workload.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid is still looking for his first TD of his career as the Bills meet up with the Jaguars in London this week. The Bills are coming off a big win at home against the Dolphins, where the offense erupted for 48 points. Kincaid did not show up big in the box score, but his route participation spiked to 75.9%, up from 57.1% the week prior. This could signal that better production is to come for the first round pick and the Bills are in need of secondary pass catchers to step up behind Stefon Diggs. The Jags have allowed the third most catches and receiving yards to TEs this season.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions

Detroit’s offense continued to roll in Lambeau Field last Thursday night. Montgomery, coming off a thigh injury, dominated the backfield, receiving 32 rushing attempts. He converted three of those attempts for touchdowns and has now scored in every game he has played in for the Lions. He gets another great matchup this week against a Panthers defense that has allowed the third most rushing yards per game to RBs and second most rushing TDs. The Lions are 9-point favorites at home, so we can expect them to be in the red zone a few times. There was no threat to Montgomery’s red zone work last week, receiving all eight of the team’s rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Hopkins was not needed much last week in the win against the Bengals. The Titans were able to rush for 173 yards in a game they lead throughout. This game projects to be close, as the Titans are 1.5-point underdogs in Indianapolis. Hopkins has nearly double the targets (31) as the next closest receiver on the team, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but no TDs to show for it. He also leads the team in end zone targets (3), so it seems only a matter of time before Hopkins is able to find his first TD with his new team. The matchup against the Colts secondary is good as well. Colts have allowed five receiving TDs to WRs this season and rank 26th in both catches and yards allowed to WRs.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

It has been a disappointing start to the season for Goedert. He only has 13 catches for 88 yards across four games. The passing game has funneled through AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, despite Goedert running a route on 85% of Hurts’ dropbacks. Together Brown and Smith have accounted for four of the five passing touchdowns as well. The Rams have been below average at defending the TE position this year and are coming off a week where they gave up over 100 yards and 2 TDs to the Colts trio of TEs.

New York Giants at Miami Dolphins

I am going back to Waddle this week after a disappointing performance in his return from a concussion last week. We shouldn’t expect Braxton Berrios to be the most productive Dolphins receiver again, as he was against the Bills. The Dolphins have the highest implied team total (29.0) this week and we can expect them to revert back to their target share from last year. Over 50% of the targets went to Waddle and Tyreek in 2022. Waddle has not had a blow up game yet this season, but the 1-3 Giants present a chance to change that.

Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings

Rice has been limited as far as snap count share to start the year but the targets he has seen when on the field are encouraging. Through four games, he has seen five or more targets in three of them and is second on the team only to Kelce. This includes last week where Mahomes targeted Rice three times when in the red zone, two more than any other receiver. The Chiefs are still looking for a WR to step up and this will be a good chance to against a Vikings defense allowing the second most reception to WRs in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

There is not much to like offensively in this game that features two offenses averaging less than 15 points per game. That said, I’ll lean towards Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson broke out last season but has been disappointing to start the year. The workload has been there, averaging 18 touches a game. He also has been featured in the red zone getting seven of eight rushing attempts for the Patriots.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee has continued to lead the backfield last week, seeing 14 of 22 rushing attempts. Warren will continue to be a threat in the passing game, but Harris is the preferred runner through four weeks. This is another game where it should be a poor scoring environment. The total sits at 38 points, which is the lowest on the week. Even so, there should be a few touchdowns scored and Najee was able to find the end zone in both meetings against the Ravens last season.

New York Jets at Denver Broncos

Hall has had a slow start to the season, seeing less than 50% of the snaps in all four games. There were rumblings this week that Breece is no longer on a snap count. I’m not certain that means that Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter won’t still be involved, but the Jets need to win this week to avoid falling to 1-4. That means getting the ball in their best playmaker hands outside of Garrett Wilson. The matchup could not be better against a Denver defense ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards (153.3) and TDs (7) allowed to RBs.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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