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NFL Week 5 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 5 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you’ll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 5 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 5 games on Sunday.

NFL Week 5 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Jaguars -3

Top Underdogs:

  • Panthers +4
  • Cardinals +7.5
  • Giants +7

Top Totals:

  • CIN/BAL over 48.5
  • BUF/HOU under 47.5
  • CLE/WAS over 43.5
  • MIA/NE under 35.5
  • GB/LA under 49.0
  • SEA/NYG under 42.5
  • DAL/PIT over 43.5

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears

Sides:

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Panthers have lost 12 of their last 14 games.
  • The Bears have won each of their last seven home games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Bears’ last nine games.
  • The Bears are 7-4-1 ATS and 7-5 straight up in their last 12 games.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Panthers’ last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Bears’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-2-1 toward the under in their last 10 games.
  • Ten of the Bears’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

For all the flack Caleb Williams has received in the first month of the season, he has shown signs of growth as the Bears continue to find their identity on offense. Chicago relied on the rushing attack and short passing game to succeed against the Rams.

Given the injuries across the offensive line, whether Da Bears can carry over the rushing success remains to be seen. But the matchup is there for the taking against the Panthers’ terrible run defense. Carolina’s pass defense has also struggled underneath, allowing the fifth-highest EPA/pass on attempts under 10 air yards.

As for the Panthers’ offense, Chicago is by far the toughest test they have faced under Andy Dalton. Per Next Gen Stats, the Bears have generated a 40.0% pressure rate in the second half this season (5th), compared to 25.4% in the first half (28th).

But Dave Canales’ in-rhythm passing is getting the ball out of Dalton’s hands FAST. Per Next Gen Stats, Dalton has the 2nd-most yards on quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) with 331.

Sure, the Bears can generate pressure, but the ball might be gone by that point. However, the Bears have been the best defense AGAINST the short passing game (under 10 air yards). They are No. 1 in EPA/pass attempt (-0.33). They rank in the middle of the pack in pass attempts under 2.5 seconds.

Both teams seem likely to approach this game similarly. Get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly and run the ball effectively.

It is worth noting that we saw Canales face Matt Eberflus’ defense in Week 2 of last season when Canales’ Buccaneers offense posted 400 yards of offense and 27 points at home. I don’t expect nearly that type of offensive production for the road Panthers playing against a solid Bears defense, but they should be able to hold their own in this spot.

I jumped on these early Monday, with the Panthers +4 and the under at 44. Since then, the under has moved to 41 – more in line with the BettingPros consensus projections at 41.3.

But I still like the under. As I said, the Bears are BY FAR the best defense Dalton has faced this season. And I’m still not sold this Bears offense under Shane Waldron will be able to exploit the Panthers’ weaknesses.  The Bears are 2-0 at home and ATS by the slimmest of margins. They’ve been out-gained in both games but have won going 5-1 in the turnover battle.

Take the under and the Panthers +4. Canales went 8-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield on the road in 2023 and is 1-0 in that category this season with Dalton. He gets the most out of his offense playing away from home.

Props:

I expect the Bears to utilize a short-passing game, which lends itself to Keenan Allen being heavily involved. He’s averaged 3.5 catches in two games this season, but his catch rate has been low despite seven targets per game. The over has hit for the last four WRs most comparable to Allen against the Panthers this season.

Chuba Hubbard has rushed for at least 62 rushing yards in three straight games and seven of his last 10 contests (70%). Every running back that has faced Chicago this season has gone over their projected rushing total.

My Picks:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Sides:

  • Lamar Jackson is 33-34-0 (49%) ATS as a favorite.
  • Baltimore is 12-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 7-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 71% ATS (12-5) on the road in the last two seasons. They are 8-4 ATS (67%) as road favorites.
  • Joe Burrow is 64% ATS as an underdog
  • The Bengals are 12-6 ATS on the road.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC North opponents.
  • The Bengals have lost four of their last five games against AFC opponents.
  • The Bengals have won 13 of their last 18 home games.
  • The Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorites and 12-5 straight up at home.

Totals:

  • The majority of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (six of their last nine), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 3-1 toward the over this season.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in six of the last nine games (seven of the previous 12).
  • Each of the last four games between the Ravens and Bengals has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Bengals’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Bengals’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

We’ve got a classic AFC North slugfest between the Ravens and Bengals on our hands. We know that in marquee matchups, the Ravens are going to bring the heat. As for the Bengals, we know that their offense will show up. But to what level of production remains to be seen? Cincinnati has struggled against his AFC North rivals in recent years. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bengals have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC North opponents.

Specifically, against the Ravens, it’s been a real struggle. Since 2022, the Bengals are just 1-3 against Baltimore with Joe Burrow under center. And that wasn’t against a Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team. In fact, we’ve only had two full Jackson vs Burrow games in the last two seasons. Both games settled by less than three points, while the Bengals went 1-1 overall (2-0 ATS).

In all four games, Burrow hasn’t thrown for more than 225 passing yards.

This matchup between two strong offenses projects for a massive total. Hence the line set close to 50 points. The only on-paper matchup where we won’t see offense fireworks is when the Bengals try to run the ball. And it’s more of an “if” they decide to run it. I think they will not.

Cincy ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation this season. The offensive line has been great so far this season, keeping Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals QB has been the second-least pressured quarterback this season (19.5%).

Why run the ball against the Ravens run defense that ranks first in the fewest rushing yards allowed per game (57.8)?

Cincinnati will attack the Baltimore pass defense – fourth-most passing yards allowed per game – to score points and force the Ravens out of their run-heavy nature they have fully embraced the last two weeks. But that’s not to say taking Henry out – easier said than done – to face last year’s reigning MVP in a dropback pass game will generate a victory. Derrick Henry rushing or Lamar Jackson throwing. Pick your poison.

These games tend to be tight, so I’ll stay away from the sides. It’s all about the total – where all signs, trends, and data points suggest the over even at 48.5 points.

I only see this going under the total if Henry just bleeds the clock running the ball. First down after first down, without any game-breaking long runs.

Player Props:

The Ravens boast the best run defense in the NFL. No top running back they have faced has eclipsed 45 rushing yards against them this season. With Chase Brown taking a larger portion of the work in the Bengals’ backfield, Moss doesn’t have the volume or efficiency to get over 39 rushing yards. Brown had a great Week 4 but had just two carries in the first half. We have seen one starting RB the Ravens have faced this season surpass nine carries.

Last week, I cited that the Ravens receivers had suppressed betting prop lines because of the severe lack of passes from Lamar Jackson in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his ENTIRE career where he played the full game. Welp, Week 4 was the fifth-lowest of his career.

The lack of passing volume in Baltimore will eventually regress to the mean in games where the Ravens aren’t so fortunate to play from ahead. They are facing the Bengals on the road in Week 5, so you could see the passing game forced into more volume. Flowers is an easy-buy-low prop as a result. Team-high 26% target share while leading the team in receptions.

I don’t know when they will drop, but keep an eye on rookie tight end Erick All and his receiving props. He’s had four catches in all his games this season. The Ravens’ defense ranks 31st in yards, targets, and catches to tight ends this season.

My Picks:

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Patriots have lost each of their last eight games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have lost the first half in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Patriots have lost eight of their last nine games at Gillette Stadium.
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against the Patriots.
  • The Dolphins have lost six of their last seven games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
  • Miami is below 20 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 1-6 overall since 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways during their three-game losing streak.
  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.

Totals:

  • Six of the last nine Patriots’ games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • The Patriots’ defense has allowed 300-plus yards in three straight weeks. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 11-10 toward the under in their last 21 games (52.5%).
  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Dolphins’ last 11 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

On Wednesday, the Patriots placed starting center David Andrews on IR due to a shoulder injury. It was another brutal hit to the patchwork offensive line. To make matters worse, there’s a major concern from head coach Jared Mayo regarding running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Mayo announced on Friday evening that Stevenson won’t start due to his fumble issues but he will play.

Not great. But let’s keep this in mind as the Patriots bench their most explosive player on offense. Gibson is in New England now because he fumbled his way OUT of Washington.

In essence, this isn’t news. Any RB that fumbles five times in five games has to be punished in some way. So, of course, this will likely be overblown. If anything, this should light a fire under Stevenson to be the guy he was the first two weeks of the season versus the last two weeks. It worked last week when it seemed D’Andre Swift would be benched. He had his best game to date for the Bears. Last year around this time, we had a report from the Patriots that claimed Ezekiel Elliott would see “starter snaps.” That did not translate to the field.

If the Patriots want to win this game, they have to run the football. Point blank.

The offensive line is horrible in pass protection and has been decimated by injuries. Miami’s pass rush is good enough with just four rushers – the third-highest pressure rate on four-man rushes per Next Gen Stats.

Their only chance is to run heavy personnel sets with multiple tight ends and hope they can get a few runs to pop.

Miami’s run defense has allowed -0.20 yards before contact per carry (fewest)—fourth-highest stuff rate. A lot of runs result in zero to no gains. But they have faced the third-highest rushing rate (53%), ranking 11th in rushes of 10-plus yards allowed and 9th in rushing yards allowed above expectation.

Given Miami’s lack of consistency and boom-or-bust nature in stopping the run, the Patriots’ run game could be successful—as in, maybe they score one or two touchdowns. There will be very little hope of sustained drives against Miami’s defense, which ranks first in third-down conversions allowed. The Patriots’ defense ranks 31st on third down.

Unfortunately, Miami’s offense isn’t in much better shape.

Even though the Patriots defense has struggled, Miami’s offense is also a mess. Two weeks without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have significantly affected this offense.

They’ve struggled to run the football, getting stuffed at the highest rate in the NFL while ranking 31st in EPA/rush.

And that quarterback play between Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley has been dreadful.

The total for this game sits at an egregious 35.5 points. We saw both of Miami’s and New England’s games go over their respective totals last week, with the defenses giving up over 30 points on defense. But expecting the two offenses to force this game over the total without any crazy turnovers or huge explosive plays is a fool’s errand. We see games FLY under 35.5 points all the time. Over the last two seasons, Miami has scored more than 21 points once without Tua Tagovailoa.

If I had to pick a side – Patriots homer, after all – I think I’d lean on Miami. Eventually, the combination of Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle will lead to a few big plays that New England’s offense cannot match. That one game-breaking play will likely be the deciding factor in this contest.

Props:

All four RBs that have faced the Dolphins have gone OVER their rushing yards prop, hitting at least 73 rushing yards. Fade the noise.

My Picks:

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-7-1 ATS in their last 14 road appearances as underdogs. 4-1 as home underdogs.
  • Deshaun Watson is 61% ATS as an underdog (40% ATS as a favorite).
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 10 games. They are 3-0 ATS and straight up in their last three games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last eight home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Browns’ last 12 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Five of the Browns’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Browns’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 12-9-1 toward the over in their last 21 games.
  • Nine of the Commanders’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-1 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 12-3 toward the OVER. The Browns have a 20-point implied team total.
  • Per Covers.com, Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.

Overall:

This matchup is between two teams that couldn’t be going in more different directions. Everybody loves Jayden Daniels and this Commanders group. As for Deshaun Watson and the Browns … I rest my case.

The line reflects this with Washington’s 3-point home favorite status. Washington is 1-0 at home this season, defeating the Giants 21-18 despite scoring zero touchdowns.

The Browns offense remains banged up, but reinforcements may be on the horizon. Tight end David Njoku is to play, although he may be limited according to Adam Schefter. Tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills might also return.

Unless Cleveland can get its offensive line healthy ahead of Week 5, Watson will continue to be pressured at an absurd rate. He has been sacked 19 times this season, by far the most of any quarterback.

Because in the time he isn’t pressured – or buys time with his legs by escaping the pocket – it’s pretty easy to see him having a productive day passing against a horrible Washington secondary.

The Browns rank fourth overall in pass rate over expectation this season (+4%). As for the Commanders’ offense … why wouldn’t we see them continue to cook?

The Commanders’ offense ranks first overall in EPA/play. First in EPA/pass and EPA/run. They can throw it and run it at an elite level. The numbers are slightly boosted by the opponents they have faced – Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, etc. – but it’s impressive nonetheless from a rookie QB-led offense.

Cleveland’s defense tends to play worse on the road than at home, and their tackling has been miserable.  Per Next Gen Stats, the Browns defense has converted on a league-low 83.1% of tackling opportunities this season. They have surrendered 258 yards due to missed tackles, 2nd-most in the NFL behind the Eagles (269 yards). The Commanders’ skill players (RB, WR, TE) have forced a missed tackle on 24.1% of their combined touches this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

Commanders No. 1 WR, Terry McLaurin, projects to match up with Browns right CB Martin Emerson. No cornerback has a worse PFF pass coverage grade than Emerson (37.2) this season. McLaurin runs almost all of his routes exclusively from the left side of the offensive formation. His targets have also increased by two every week, dating back to Week 1.

I don’t think that this Browns defense is the TRUE test for the Commanders offense, even if it’s slightly tougher than their last two opponents. And although the headlines are about Daniels’ passing, I think the Commanders rushing offense (which does also include the rookie quarterback), can dominate this matchup. Cleveland’s run defense ranks fourth in most rushing yards allowed after contact per attempt.

The sharps are all over the Brownies at +3, given how much these lines have changed since last week (CLE -2.5). I don’t like picking sides with two mobile QBs and shaky offensive lines creating more variance than I feel comfortable gambling on. I’m also 0-2 backing the Browns the last two weeks (regression?). The hook also moves me away from the backing of the nation’s capital.

For all the criticism Watson receives (deservedly so) he did play one of his best games of the season against the Raiders, which the box score doesn’t quite capture. He could have two big TD passes to Cooper and the interception wasn’t his fault. He posted PFF’s second-highest passing grade in Week 4.

I liked the over at 43.5 earlier this week in this matchup, and I’m sticking to it.

Props:

Deshaun Watson has passed for at least 21 pass completions in four straight games. He’s gone over this number in seven of his last 10 games dating back to the start of last season. Quarterbacks who have faced the Commanders this season have averaged over 21.5 completions per game.

Per Next Gen Stats, Amari Cooper has totaled 335 air yards on targets that fell incomplete this season, most of any receiver. Watson has completed just 2 of 13 passes over 10 air yards when targeting Amari Cooper for 47 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Cooper also leads all receivers with -134 receiving yards over expected this season.

My Picks:

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 14 of the Colts’ last 16 games.
  • The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and 100% ATS as an underdog.
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Jaguars have lost nine of their last 10 games.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 road games.
  • The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games.
  • The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite. They are just 2-8 as an underdog since the start of last season.
  • The home team has won 12 of the last 13 games between the Colts and Jaguars.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Colts.

Totals:

  • Five of the last seven Colts’ games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • Six of the Jags’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last 12 games.
  • Jacksonville scored 30 or more points thrice in 2023. Two of those games came against the Colts.

Overall:

We’ve got an AFC South divisional showdown between the Colts and Jaguars, two teams that enter the matchup with major question marks.

The Jaguars are 0-4. Doug Pederson is being asked about his job security, and the team seems to be losing faith in Trevor Lawrence. Maybe that’s a step too far, but regardless, this team needs to get out of its funk ASAP to avoid a dreaded 0-5 start.

The Colts also have some questions, mostly about who their starting quarterback will be. Anthony Richardson got banged up against the Steelers, so Joe Flacco is expected to start. Given the rhetoric around Richardson’s passing woes this season – even though he was dealing before he left the game against the Steelers – I’m not sure we’ll see massive line movement once an official quarterback decision is determined. It’s in the Colts’ best interest to keep the Jaguars on their toes regarding Flacco/Richardson, given their stark differences in play style.

You’d like Richardson to start, but I don’t think sending out Flacco would be the worst for the Colts offense, given how bad the Jaguars are at defending the pass.

With Jonathan Taylor out injured, this game screams a super-heavy pass attack by Indianapolis. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jaguars defense has allowed -30 rushing yards over expected (6th-fewest) and -6 first downs over expected (2nd-fewest) to designed RB rushes in 2024.

Conversely, they rank second in passing yards per game allowed (273), third in EPA/pass attempt, and third in yards per attempt faced.

In these two matchups last season (both of which hit the over at 43.5 and 46.5), the Colts averaged 46 pass attempts. Pass rates over expectation of 8% and a whopping 31%.

Where will the air show be this weekend? Duval county. Top Gun-esque.

On the Jaguars side, I expect more of a balanced approach. The Colts have been a sieve as a run defense, so we could see Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby run wild. Indianapolis’ pass defense also isn’t great against the deep ball, allowing the most passing yards per game against throws of 20-plus air yards. This has been the Jaguars’ bread and butter offensively, specifically with rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr.

The Jaguars swept the Colts as favorites in their two matchups last season and find themselves in the same situation in Week 5. No team is more desperate for a win.

And although the Flacco hive is strong, he didn’t necessarily engineer an amazing offense against the Steelers. But the Jaguars are not the Steelers.

My lean is toward the Jaguars -3. This team is 2-2 against the spread and could easily be 3-1 overall if a few balls bounce in different ways throughout the first month of the season. They have been the most unlucky team this season, so eventually, they will catch a break. Perhaps Richardson’s absence in Week 5 is the exact break they need to get the first win of the season.

I also can’t completely overlook how well the Jaguars have played against the Colts historically, either. The favorites tend to win Colts games, and Jacksonville has traditionally been a strong bet as a favorite. The Jags have played three of their four first games on the road this season, which has further tarnished the team in the betting public.

I’m getting back on the horse. Jacksonville needs to build momentum before heading to London for Weeks 6-7.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Brian Thomas Jr. leads all rookies in deep receptions (4) and receiving yards (140) this season. His 13.7 yards of average route depth ranks third-deepest among rookie wide receivers, trailing only Xavier Worthy (14.8) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (14.7). BTJ has at least 54 yards in two of four games this season, going over his prop line each week. His four most comparable players against the Colts have ALL gone over 60 yards when they faced Indianapolis earlier this season.

My Picks:

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

Sides:

  • The Bills have won nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last six games against AFC opponents.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 13-5 as a favorite since the start of last season. But they are just 8-10 ATS as a favorite.
  • Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 19 games.
  • C.J. Stroud is 42% ATS as an underdog per BetMGM.
  • Josh Allen is 55% ATS as a favorite per BetMGM.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games. 0-4 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites (3-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Ten of their last 12 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is just 10-11 against the spread over its last 21 games.
  • Houston is 5-7 ATS as a home underdog.

Totals:

  • Four of the Bills’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Bills’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line. (14 of their last 18 road games per Covers.com)
  • The Texans have gone under in 14 of their last 23 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 0-2 O/U this season.

Overall:

On the surface, this game has to be a shootout, right? It’s C.J. Stroud against Josh Allen!

I’m not overly convinced. Even though Bills games have been trending toward the over, those have mostly been games played in Buffalo where their offense plays better, dating back to last season.

We know that the Bills’ defense does everything in their power to limit big plays – third-lowest yards per attempt allowed this season – and that is conducive to fewer points scored by opposing offenses.

Buffalo will also be down WR Khalil Shakir, who leads the team in targets this season. Shakir is the team’s slot WR which Allen has relied on heavily. Allen has targeted the slot at the sixth-highest rate this season (34.7%) per Next Gen Stats.

When targeting the slot, Allen has generated a league-high 68.6% success rate. Allen has also recorded an 82.9% completion percentage and +0.73 EPA per dropback, both 2nd in the NFL. The Texans’ defense has allowed a 54.3% completion percentage and just 4.3 yards per attempt on passes targeting the slot this season, both best in the NFL.

Strength on strength, but it is hard not to give the advantage to the Texans if tight end Dalton Kincaid and veteran wide receiver Curtis Samuel are taking over the slot snaps due to Shakir’s injury.

Meanwhile, Houston has become one-dimensional on offense since they lost RB Joe Mixon. They are fifth-worst in the NFL in EPA/rush. Buffalo’s biggest weakness on defense is against the run, and I don’t think they have the personnel to truly take advantage.

The Texans passing offense has been great – third in passing yards per game – and they should get back No. 3 WR, Tank Dell.

With Dell and Stefon Diggs (revenge game) working underneath, I think they will be heavily involved in this matchup.

If I’m Buffalo, I am forcing the Texans to beat me with Diggs seeing double-digit targets. Nico Collins’ big-play ability has to be their No. 1 priority on stopping.

The 47.5-point total is just too high in a matchup between two defenses that rank top-10 in the fewest yards per play allowed. As mentioned earlier, Houston is already 2-0 toward the under at home this season, with six of their last ten games played at home in 2023 also going under the projected total.

Fade the sides – the Texans are bound to cover a spread at some point – and slam the game total under.

Player Props:

Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in six of the Texans’ last seven home games.

If I were to bet on a piece of the Texans’ offense this week, it would be Diggs. He’s got the best matchup as the underneath slot option against Buffalo.

However, it might just be Tank Dell Week, folks. He is expected to return, and his quarterback had nothing but glowing remarks about getting the ball to “one of the best receivers in the league.” Not his team—the league. Once his receiving props drop, pounce on the overs.

My Picks:

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Raiders are 10-3-1 ATS over their last 14 games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.
  • The Raiders have lost seven of their last nine road games.
  • The Raiders have won each of their last eight games against the Broncos.
  • The Broncos are 5-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (3-2 ATS last five road games).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last seven games as home underdogs.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Raiders’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 13-8 toward the under.
  • Four of the Raiders’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Four of the Broncos’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Broncos’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Broncos’ last six games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Intriguing AFC West matchup this week between the Raiders and Broncos. Bo Nix is favored to win an NFL game for the first time in his career, as the Broncos give 2.5 points at home.

Denver’s on a hot streak, upsetting two teams on the road in back-to-back weeks. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ headlines are more about their disgruntled wide receiver Davante Adams and head coach Antonio Pierce’s social media practices. Good grief.

To make matters worse, Las Vegas’ offense is completely outmatched against this elite Broncos defense. They rank first in EPA/play, first in yards per play, and third in points per game allowed on defense.

Denver blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, which spells potential trouble for Gardner Minshew. Although he has been very quick to release the ball this season, this will likely be the way he combats the pressure the Broncos send his way.

Regardless, I think the Raiders struggle to move the ball offensively.

I am much more hopeful for the Broncos offense.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos have been more effective on designed runs between the tackles (+44 rushing yards over expected, 4th) than those to the outside (-31 rushing yards over expected, 25th) this season.

The Raiders defense has allowed opposing ball carriers to generate +42 RYOE on designed runs between the tackles, the 4th-most in the NFL.

Javonte Williams had by far his best week of the season last season, averaging 4.3 yards per carry on 12 attempts in between the tackles. He showcased his broken tackle prowess with 47 yards after contact.

Vegas has shown leaks against the run all season, and I think Denver’s ground game builds off last week. All four RBs that the Raiders have faced this season have gone OVER their projected rushing total.

The trends heavily suggest fading the Raiders on the road (4-7 on the money line as road underdogs), so I’ll take Denver to win by three to extend their winning streak to three games.

Even if I don’t love Bo Nix, I love the Broncos’ defense and the coaching matchup of Sean Payton against Pierce.

These teams averaged 37 points scored in two matchups last season, so I don’t see a ton of value on the O/U at 36 points. These teams are a combined 3-5 toward the O/U, averaging 36.5 points per game.

Player Props:

Alexander Mattison has scored a touchdown in three of the Raiders’ last four games.

Tre Tucker has scored a touchdown in each of the Raiders’ last two games.

Jakobi Meyers caught five of 10 targets for 49 yards (42% target share, 52% air yards share, and two RZ) in Week 4. No Davante Adams (week-to-week with a hamstring injury), so Meyers immediately stepped into an alpha target role. But…. he also had a season-low slot snap rate last week. He is the most likely candidate to get the Patrick Surtain lockdown treatment this week. Tucker will get some as well on the outside. Ie. We should expect a massive week from rookie tight end Brock Bowers as the primary focus of the Raiders pass attack.

Bowers has 45-plus yards in two of his four games played this season. And last week, he should have posted a much better stat line than his 2 for 19 stat line would suggest. He dropped a deep pass on the first play of the game that would have gone for 30-plus yards from the get-go. On the next play, he was targeted again for 8 yards, but it was called back due to a penalty.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Sides:

  • The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine home games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the 49ers’ last 16 games.
  • SF is 12-5 ATS when they score 23-plus points since the start of 2023.
  • The 49ers were the most overrated team at home in 2023 ATS, going 3-7, which was fourth worst in the NFL in 2023. So far, in 2024, they are 2-0 ATS at home.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread twice in their last nine home games.
  • The 49ers have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in four of their last six games.
  • Arizona is 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine games against NFC West opponents.

Totals:

  • Five of the 49ers’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The 49ers are 2-0 toward the over at home, averaging 47 points per game.
  • Each of the last five games between the Cardinals and 49ers has gone OVER the total points line.
  • These teams are a combined 6-2 toward the over this season.
  • The Cardinals have been an under machine since the start of 2023 on the road (3-5-1).

Overall

We are back for yet another Terrell Furman “Close Your Eyes Special.” Essentially, my BettingPros colleague loves buying the dip on the team that is catching points off blowout losses. The public overacts and creates values for the “sharp” bettors. Over the last three seasons, teams that underperformed the spread by 21 or more points and are an underdog the following week are 61% against the spread.

When I first opened the Week 5 NFL betting slate, I was immediately drawn to the Cardinals +7.5.

The track record of the 49ers FAILING to cover massive spreads at home precedes itself. And Arizona is due for a bounce back after back-to-back duds at home. It’s a divisional matchup between two familiar opponents, and I don’t think Arizona is getting enough credit here.

However, I am bearish on calling an outright upset.

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy has been dealing to start the season, especially in the face of pressure. He has the third-highest EPA/dropback under pressure this season. Purdy leads all quarterbacks in time to throw because he extends the play even in the face of pressure. The 49ers’ offensive line hasn’t been great in pass protection, allowing the fifth-highest pressure rate this season.

But I’d hardly imagine SF’s main offensive strategy is to throw all over the Cardinals when they could easily opt for the ground game instead behind Jordan Mason.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have used 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE) on a league-high 42.4% of their offensive snaps this season, also the highest rate by a 49ers offense during the Kyle Shanahan era (since 2017). The 49ers have averaged 6.5 yards per play with 21 personnel this season, second-most among the seven offenses to use 21 personnel on at least 10% of plays (Ravens, 7.0). Last season, the 49ers offense used 21 personnel on 53 of 107 offensive plays across two combined meetings with the Cardinals, averaging 7.4 yards per play.

Christian McCaffrey rushed for over 100 yards in each matchup. The 49ers will have success running the football in this spot. And when they do throw, I project similar success.

Per Next Gen Stats, Purdy has thrown into a tight window (less than 1 yard of separation) on 24.6% of his total pass attempts this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL behind only Dak Prescott. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed a league-high 59.2% open target rate this season (3+ yards of separation).

I’ve pointed out the strengths of the 49ers offense, so how in the world does Arizona cover the 7.5-point spread?

By running the football themselves and attacking the middle of the field.

I discussed last week some of the 49ers’ defense’s key weaknesses, including stopping the run and defending the middle of the field.

Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers have struggled defending targets to the middle third in Weeks 1-3, allowing the most yards per attempt (14.2) and a 60.0% success rate (23rd in NFL). In each season from 2018 to 2023, the 49ers ranked in the top 5 in yards per attempt allowed and success rate allowed against passes targeted to the middle third. Kyler Murray has completed 18 of 22 passes over the middle of the field beyond the line of scrimmage for 169 yards and a touchdown this season. His +12.6% completion percentage over expected on those attempts ranks 2nd-highest in the NFL behind only Jayden Daniels (+18.3%).

Getting tight end Trey McBride back for the Cardinals is a huge boost for Arizona’s offense, particularly in this matchup. When McBride played the 49ers last season, he caught 10 passes for 102 yards. In the early matchup when Zach Ertz was the Cardinals starting tight end, he caught six passes for 53 yards on 10 targets.

There’s also an advantage with the Cardinals’ deep passing game in this spot. Murray is throwing the ball more aggressively downfield (career deep ball pass rate at 15%), creating chunk yardage for the Red Birds. The 49ers rank 29th in defending the deep ball this season (EPA/pass attempt).

A week ago, I backed the anemic Patriots offense on the road as 10.5-point underdogs. The 49ers didn’t score an offensive touchdown until less than five minutes remained in the second quarter.

Given that Arizona’s offense can score points through the air or on the ground, I’m optimistic that they will hang around this game to cover the spread. And even though the number is massive, based on the evidence/trends I’ve provided, it is hard not to lean toward the over at 50.

Props:

James Conner has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Cardinals’ last nine games.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, George Kittle has scored a touchdown in four of the 49ers’ last five home games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points). Kittle also combined for three catches against Arizona in two games last season.

I hate to make “vibes” based analysis, but Brandon Aiyuk is due for a big game. He’s gone under 60.5 receiving yards all four weeks this season after his contract hold-in. But we saw him go over 100 yards against Arizona last season at home. He exceeded this number in 67% of his home games in 2023 compared to just 30% on the road. The targets have been there for Aiyuk, but it just hasn’t translated quite yet. Against Arizona, I think we see Aiyuk return to form. Note he almost had 50 yards last week on just two catches. The Cardinals defense ranks 31st in yards per pass attempt faced this season.

My Picks

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

Sides:

  • The Rams are below 54% ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
  • The Rams 2023 starters are 2-9 as underdogs straight up. 1-3 as underdogs this season (2-2 ATS) after their massive win against the 49ers.
  • The favorites have won 14 of the Rams’ last 15 games.
  • Green Bay is 10-7 at home in its last 17 home games, 9-8 ATS, but just 40% ATS over its last 14 home games.
  • GB as a favorite: 6-14-1 ATS (30%).
  • The Packers have covered the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Packers have scored first in each of their last eight road games.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 10-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 9-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Rams have a 23-point implied team total.

Totals:

  • Eight of the Rams’ last 11 games with their starters have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Rams are 10-7 toward the O/U in their last 17 games.
  • Against offenses other than the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks, or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams allowed at least 20 points on defense in every game in 2023. Only five times since the start of 2023 has the defense allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.
  • The Packers are 15-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Ten of the Packers’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers’ first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half.
  • Eight of the Packers’ last 10 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Doesn’t take a genius to project how the Rams want to attack this game. Run the ball with Kyren Williams 25-plus times against the Packers. LA has a bye week in Week 6, and the faster they get there…the better. The Rams are so banged up offensively that they have no choice but to just feed Williams as much as possible until their WRs return from injury.

The Rams’ defense is getting pressure (No.1 in pressure rate), but they aren’t converting sacks. Per Next Gen Stats, they have converted just 14.0% of those pressures into sacks, the 5th-lowest pressure-to-sack conversion rate in the NFL. Eventually, the sack production will regress to the mean, especially if Jordan Love holds onto the ball as much as he did in Week 4. Per Next Gen Stats, Love had an average time to throw of 3.08 seconds in Week 4 against the Vikings, his longest since Week 4 of last season.

The Rams’ defense is dying due to the lack of sacks because the secondary can’t cover once the ball leaves the quarterback’s hand. The run defense is also extremely suspect, which is not great against the Packers.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers have totaled 19 designed runs of 10 yards or more, the 2nd-most in the NFL. Josh Jacobs has attempted 62.0% of his rushes between the tackle box, where he has averaged 4.0 yards after contact on such carries (3rd-most, minimum 25 inside rushes). The Rams’ rush defense has been vulnerable this season, allowing 4.9 yards per carry on designed rushes (6th-most). With opponents calling designed rushes outside the tackles on 62.1% of carries against the Rams (5th-highest), the Rams defenders have contacted opposing ball carriers behind on the line of scrimmage against just 33.3% of designed outside rushes (2nd-lowest).

There’s no doubt that for the Packers to succeed in this matchup, they would look to run the ball effectively to limit the Rams’ pass rush. Feed Jacobs and rip play action throws to Reed against zone coverage. Rinse and repeat. Of note also is that Romeo Doubs will miss this game due to a suspension for “conduct detrimental to the team”.

There’s certainly a lot of offensive excitement in this matchup, but I can’t help but look toward the under at a bloated 49-point total. This seems like a projected total we’d see if the Rams still HAD Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. As I’ve stated, I think we could see both teams run the ball a decent amount, potentially slowing down the pace of play. 46, 51, 51, 42 have been the Rams’ game totals this season, averaging 47.5 points per game. So even though the trends point toward the over, I’m banking on some regression to the mean with a rare Packers-Rams under in Week 5.

Player Props:

Kyren Williams has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven regular season appearances.

Jayden Reed has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances with the Packers as favorites.

Per Next Gen Stats, Jayden Reed has recorded 330 of his 336 receiving yards against zone coverage this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL behind only Nico Collins. The Rams have deployed zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season.

The most advantageous spot for the Rams’ passing game against the Packers is in the short game. Green Bay ranks 31st in yards per attempt on passes under 10 air yards. Therefore, I expect rookie Jordan Whittington and Colby Parkinson to see the majority of looks for the Rams pass-catchers.

Whittington caught six of eight targets for 62 yards (28% target share last week). The first-year WR saw his role change dramatically with 100% route participation.

This usage was more in line with what we expected from Whittington, although this time, it was not Whittington in the slot. He played 69% of his snaps out wide, which tells me that he will stay involved even when Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua return.

Parkinson caught four of seven targets for 33 yards (24% target share). He was targeted twice in the red zone but didn’t score. Parkinson is tied for the NFL lead in red-zone targets (4) but has zero TDs. The usage is pretty strong for Parkinson, but the production has been waning. Given last week’s seven targets and this matchup, I think this might be the week for the “Colby” shot to make it into the waste basket.

My Picks:

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 17 of the Seahawks’ last 19 games.
  • Seattle is 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games played (4-7-1 over the last 11 games).
  • Seattle is 10-2 as a favorite in the last 12 games.
  • The Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites.
  • The Seahawks are 4-5-1 at home as favorites ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The Giants are 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games.
  • The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 road games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Seahawks’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Giants are 5-7 toward the over in the Giants’ last 12 games.
  • New York has scored 20-plus points in six of their last 10 games.
  • All four Giants games have gone UNDER the projected total this season.
  • Each of the Giants’ last five games has gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Seahawks were finally forced to play a worthy opponent back in Week 4, and they ended up losing their first game of the season. Geno Smith played extremely well in the loss, so that shouldn’t go unnoticed as Seattle makes a run at the NFC West crown.

But as we enter this Week 5 matchup, it’s back to Seattle against another bad team—the New York Giants, who will be without rookie WR Malik Nabers. The loss of Nabers is huge because he IS the engine of Big Blue’s offense. Per Next Gen Stats, Nabers is one of only three receivers to own a team air yards share of greater than 50% through 4 weeks of the season (51.2%). Nabers’ target share of 38.2% also leads the league.

With Nabers out, it’s so hard to back the Giants on the road. But this is Seattle as a home favorite – the exact spot you don’t want to be the ATS – especially coming off a Monday night game against a team playing off a Thursday night contest.

This game has “Seattle wins, but the Giants cover” written all over it.

But if you don’t feel like betting on Daniel Jones, then just opt for the under on the game which the trends also heavily support.

My Picks:

  • Giants +7
  • Under 42.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sides:

  • Pittsburgh is 13-9 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 3-1 this season.
  • The Steelers have won six of their last eight games.
  • The Steelers are 12-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 5-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 6-4 as home favorites ATS.
  • The road team has won each of the Cowboys’ last six games.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last four games when playing with a rest advantage per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Dallas is 3-6 ATS and straight up as a road underdog (33%).

Totals:

  • The Steelers are 3-1 toward the under this season.
  • Nine of the Steelers’ last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Cowboys’ last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cowboys’ last 18 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 11 of 16 games through the air.

Overall

Dallas ranks dead last in run defense stuff rate at 10.2%. They rank sixth in rushing yards per game allowed. Demarcus Lawrence is out, and Micah Parsons will also miss the game. It’s now or never for running back Najee Harris to deliver a strong performance, with him the last man standing, given the injuries to Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson in the Steelers’ backfield. Harris played a season-high in snap share (69%) in Week 4.

Dallas’ biggest weakness plays into the Steelers’ greatest strength as a run-heavy offense. The Cowboys struggle to tackle – they have converted on just 84.6% of their tackle opportunities this season, the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL per NGS – and that will be problematic.

Big D’s defense has allowed opposing rushers to gain more yards than expected on 41.0% of rushes this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Conversely, Dallas will have no shot to run the ball against the Steel Curtain. Per Next Gen Stats, Cowboys rushers have been expected to gain 4.6 yards per carry on designed runs this season, tied for 3rd-most in the NFL. Dallas has generated the 2nd-fewest rushing yards over expected (-82 RYOE) and the 2nd-fewest yards after contact per carry (2.5) on designed runs this season. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest RYOE to designed rushes in the NFL this season (-56).

Take the under on Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle’s rushing yards prop at 40.5 yards. He’s gone under in three of his four games this season. Several projections have him slated between 33 and 38 rushing yards.

In my estimation, Pittsburgh has the edge on both offense and defense while also boasting home-field advantage. The close spread is due to the respect given to Dak Prescott, who is by far the best quarterback the Steelers have faced this season.

This hardly profiles as a shootout in any capacity, but I see paths where both offenses can find success. The Steelers are so bad against slot receivers, where CeeDee Lamb runs more than half his routes from. Dallas will have opportunities to score and help get this game over the 44-point total.

Props:

Jalen Tolbert had three receptions on three targets for 24 yards in Week 4, averaging 8 YPR, with a long catch of 15 yards and 13 YAC-11% target share.

Brandin Cooks caught one pass on four targets for 16 yards, averaging 4 YPR, with a long reception of 16 yards and 10 YAC. Cooks ran the most routes, but he has already been ruled out for Week 5. We should see Tolbert see more targets as a result.

As I’ve mentioned, it’s a great matchup on paper for the slot against Pittsburgh, so we should see continued success from Lamb. However, Tolbert actually leads Dallas in yards per route run (2.18) from the slot. Look out for him on Sunday night.

Per Next Gen Stats, George Pickens has tied for the 4th-most receptions (6) and the 7th-most receiving yards (144) on targets with a sub-50% completion probability this season.

Pickens has generated 49 receptions (T-1st) and 1,102 receiving yards (2nd) on such targets since entering the NFL in 2022. Pretty good. But still no touchdowns. Soon, my friends. Pickens has the most red-zone targets and receiving yards without a touchdown. Trust the process.

My Picks:

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