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NFL Week 5 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 5 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • Last week, I suggested the Bills weren’t worth the top spot on these rankings and now I’m here to eat my words. There wasn’t a team performance in Week 4 that I was more impressed with than the way the Bills handled the Miami Dolphins both offensively and defensively. Buffalo fully deserves to be at the top, especially after how they’ve bounced back following their Week 1 blunder.
    • The most divisive team right now is the Denver Broncos. If it weren’t for their 28-7 comeback win against the Chicago Bears last week and a 70-20 blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins, this team may be easier to figure out. Their offense has been solid so far this year, but the defense has been a major liability.

    Week 5 Matchups

    • One of my biggest conviction bets of this week is on the Ravens -4, and the composite ratings agree here. While Pittsburgh’s defense has some studs, it has been shown to have some weaknesses, most recently allowing 0.15 EPA per play and a 45% success rate to a rookie-led Houston Texans. On the other side, Baltimore’s defense is 3rd-best in EPA per play allowed and should have no issue holding Pittsburgh’s 31st-ranked offense to minimal points.
    • I’ve also been pretty confused by the Jets and Broncos line. The Jets’ defense is by far the best unit that’ll be on the field Sunday, and when you consider the opposing offenses that the Jets have faced (Buffalo, New England, Dallas), their 43.6% success rate allowed is pretty good. Obviously, they’ll be traveling across the country to play in the altitude, but I think even the Zach Wilson led offense will have some ease moving the ball against Denver.
    • I’m not quite sure that the spread between Buffalo and Jacksonville is truly that far off-market. It’s one thing to be traveling cross-country and another thing to be traveling overseas, especially when your opponent has had over a week to adjust to the time difference. As I said above, Buffalo is a wagon (both offensively and defensively), but Jacksonville, despite their recent struggles, should be able to hold their own in London on Sunday.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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