NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let’s get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 5!
NFL Week 5 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
2023 total: Down 14 units
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs
Odds: +650 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Stefon Diggs had three TDs last week against the Dolphins and was Josh Allen’s primary target. He spread the ball around, but Diggs received seven of his targets. The Jaguars offer another solid matchup for the duo. The Jaguars have allowed 238.2 passing yards per game and defend the run well. The Bills should be throwing the ball, which means Diggs is a good bet to score first. No one else on the team averages more than five targets, and Diggs is averaging 9.8 targets per game.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman Jr.
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Titans are not good at defending the pass. They allow seven yards per pass attempt. They are good at stopping the run but will have an extra man to deal with this week because of Anthony Richardson’s running ability. The passing attack for the Colts should have plenty of opportunities. Pittman averages 9.8 targets per game and sees 27% of the team’s targets. He will be the receiver getting open every play for the Colts, and Richardson should feed him. He is undervalued in this market big time.
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Taking the running back playing against the Texans worked last season and could work again this season. The Texans allow 116.5 rushing yards per game and have allowed running backs to score five TDs against them. Bijan Robinson leads the Falcons in target share (19.83%) and rushing yards (318). He is showing why he was worth the eighth overall pick. He has only scored once this season, so it is only a matter of time before he starts finding the end zone. His role has increased since week one, and Tyler Allgeier only played 26% of snaps last week. Robinson has the matchup to break out this week.
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Gibbs may be in store for his first big game. The Panthers allow 136.3 rushing yards per game, and the Lions have injuries at wide receiver. Amon-Ra St. Brown was already dealing with turf toe and has missed practice this week due to an abdomen injury. Gibbs is a good bet to see an increase in touches this week, even if St. Brown plays as they likely try and manage his usage. Gibbs has seen 17 targets this season on top of 39 carries. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry behind David Montgomery. He is due for a touchdown and could make an explosive play early against this defense.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mark Andrews
Odds: +900 via DraftKings Sportsbook
Mark Andrews has been the focal point for the Ravens in the red zone. He has been targeted three times and came down with all three for scores. He is averaging six targets per game this season after missing the opener. That means one-sixth of his targets have come in the red zone. Andrews has not scored a TD against the Steelers in his career, but this may be the week for him to do it. The Steelers allow 254.5 passing yards per game and 148.5 rushing yards per game. The Ravens should frequently be in the red zone in this game, which is good news for Andrews.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
Alvin Kamara
Odds: +700 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kamara returned from suspension and immediately received a massive role in the offense. He played 75% of snaps and saw a whopping 14 targets. It was because Derek Carr injured his shoulder and played through it, but he did not throw the ball downfield. Kamara only had 33 receiving yards on 13 receptions. The Patriots also lost Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez last week, who were likely their two best players on that side of the ball. They have been good at defending the run this season, only allowing 101 rushing yards per game, but it will look differently this week. Kamara is seeing too many touches to pass on him in this market.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert
Odds: +600 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mostert was outshined by De’Von Achane last week. Mostert had issues holding onto the ball, and Achane was very effective. The Giants offer a great matchup to get back on track. They allow 133.8 rushing yards per game and are bottom-five in explosive run rate. That benefits Mostert and Achane, so it will be a toss-up who scores first. Tyreek Hill is also a big play away at any moment. Mostert is worth a shot this week against this weak run defense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua
Odds: +1100 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Eagles secondary has not looked great this season. They went as far as to sign Bradley Roby to the practice squad to add some depth. They have allowed 260.8 passing yards per game this season and face a tough matchup this week. Matthew Stafford has been slinging the rock quite a bit. He has 1229 passing yards this season and could get Cooper Kupp back this week. That should already be baked into the market, as he was supposed to return this week. Nacua has been a target monster in his place and should still be a valuable piece of this offense. It is hard to gauge how many targets he will receive playing alongside Kupp, but he is worth a bet as his odds would drop if Kupp does not play.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
Zach Ertz
Odds: +1800 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Bengals have not looked like the teams of the past few seasons. Burrow is injured and putting a lot of pressure on the defense. The Cardinals’ offense has looked much better than expected. They score 22 points per game, and Joshua Dobbs still has not thrown an interception. He is managing the offense well and is feeding Ertz. He averages 7.5 targets per game and six targets in the red zone. The Bengals have allowed three TDs to the tight end position this season. Ertz has a solid chance to find paydirt this week.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos
Breece Hall
Odds: +650 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Jets said the Breece Hall would not have a limited workload. It is pleasant news for Jets fans as they enter this matchup. The Broncos are dead last in rushing yards per game (176) and have allowed 11 TDs to the running back position this season. Hall should be exploding through the hole against this defense. He is averaging 6.6 yards per carry. This defense is about to get beat again by one of the young, talented backs in the league.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
Rashee Rice
Odds: +1800 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Vikings have not been good against the pass this season. They have also started slowly in each game. The Chiefs should put a TD on the board first, but the hard part is determining which player. Rashee Rice has seen 14.75% of the targets this season and has received six red zone targets. He has built some chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and has earned a significant role in this offense. The Vikings have allowed five TDs to the wide receiver position, and Rice is slightly undervalued based on his usage.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
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- NFL Week 5 Moneyline Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- College Football Week 6 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- College Football Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks (2023)
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