NFL Week 5 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information. Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
For example, the Chiefs moved from 6.5 to four-point favorites after the news that Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice two days before the 2023 opening night game. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp was ruled out against Seattle, and the line stayed within a point of the Seahawks opening line of -5.5.
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NFL Week 5 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games and help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| CIN | ARI | 3 | 3 | 0 | 45 | 44 | -1 |
| HOU | ATL | -1 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0 |
| JAX | BUF | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 48 | 48.5 | 0.5 |
| NYJ | DEN | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 43.5 | 43 | -0.5 |
| CAR | DET | -9 | -10 | -1 | 45 | 44 | -1 |
| TEN | IND | -1.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 42.5 | 43.5 | 1 |
| PHI | LAR | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 50 | 49.5 | -0.5 |
| GB | LV | 2.5 | -1 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| NYG | MIA | -9.5 | -12.5 | -3 | 49.5 | 47.5 | -2 |
| KC | MIN | 5.5 | 3.5 | -2 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 0 |
| NO | NE | -1.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0 |
| BAL | PIT | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 38.5 | 38 | -0.5 |
| DAL | SF | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| CHI | WAS | -7 | -6 | 1 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 5 Spread Movement Analysis
Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders: +2.5 → -1
The line movement suggests that QB Jimmy Garoppolo and WR Davante Adams will play this week, despite Garoppolo still in concussion protocol and Adams not practicing (shoulder injury) as of Thursday. The Packers were dominated last week at home against the Lions, giving up 211 yards on the ground. Josh Jacobs, last year’s leading rusher, has not had more than 62 yards rushing in a game this season, but the market seems to expect the Raiders run game to get back on track with the QB and WR status up in the air.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins: -9.5 → -12.5
The Dolphins’ spread has increased by a FG since Monday and is the largest of the week. The Giants have been awful outside of one half in Arizona this season. The 11-sack performance from the offense at home was on full display during Monday Night Football, so it is easy to see why the spread has increased since then. The Dolphins come off a season-low 20-point performance in Buffalo and should be in a good position to get the offense back on track against a Giants defense, allowing 30.5 ppg.
NFL Week 5 Total Movement Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals: 45 → 44
The average total points scored in Bengals matchups through four weeks is 35.8 points. The offense has only contributed 12.3 points to that total, so this may be the reason for the 1-point drop. Arizona has been surprisingly competitive to start the year, and the Bengals are entering must-win territory to avoid dropping to 1-4. Burrow is still hobbled by the calf, so it would not be surprising if Mixon gets more of a workload this week, which would also contribute to a slower-paced game overall.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 42.5 → 43.5
I’m not sure the assumed return of Jonathan Taylor is enough to move the total by a point, but it does sound like he will play this week, and he is fully healthy. It is unclear how much of a workload he will get, and the matchup itself isn’t a great spot for a return. The Titans rank fourth in the league in rushing yards allowed and have only given up one rushing TD all season. That said, a backfield with a healthy Jonathan Taylor and dynamic QB Anthony Richardson will provide a unique challenge for any defense this season.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)
- NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 5)
- NFL Week 5 Moneyline Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- College Football Week 6 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks (2023)
- College Football Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks (2023)
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