NFL Week 5 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 5 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| NYJ | MIN | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 41.5 | 40 | -1.5 |
| CAR | CHI | -4.5 | -4 | -0.5 | 43 | 41 | -2 |
| MIA | NE | +1 | -1 | 2 | 36 | 36.5 | 0.5 |
| IND | JAX | -3 | -3 | 0 | 46 | 46 | 0 |
| BAL | CIN | 3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 1 |
| CLE | WAS | -3.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
| BUF | HOU | 0 | 1 | -1 | 46.5 | 47.5 | 1 |
| AZ | SF | -7.5 | -7.5 | 0 | 49 | 50 | 1 |
| LV | DEN | -1.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 37 | 35.5 | -1.5 |
| NYG | SEA | -5.5 | -6.5 | 1 | 42 | 43.5 | 1.5 |
| GB | LAR | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 | 46 | 48.5 | 2.5 |
| DAL | PIT | -2.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 42 | 44 | 2 |
| NO | KC | -5 | -5.5 | 0.5 | 43 | 43 | 0 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 5 Spread Movement Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos: -1.5 ?' -3
This line movement of 1.5 points from its opening to current number is not the biggest swing of the week, but it is one of the most significant, now that the spread has landed on the key number of three. How the line got to three is interesting, as the Broncos were originally bet from -1.5 to -2.5, but there was initially big buyback on the Raiders, which drove the line back down to -1.5. From there it has been all Broncos money to get the number to -3, possibly because of Las Vegas’ distractions surrounding Davante Adams’ trade request. Either way, this line movement opposes the trend that the Raiders have won each of the previous eight head-to-head meetings with the Broncos.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers: -2.5 ?' -1.5
Despite Dallas being down two of its best pass rushers in this game, the line has moved towards “America’s Team.†There are clearly respected players on each side in this matchup, as the line went to -1.5 earlier in the week, and was bought back up to -2.5 before making stops at -2 and -1.5 again on Thursday night. This line movement is somewhat surprising given that Dallas is 1-3 ATS while Pittsburgh has covered three of its first four games. However, one thing is clear, that even if the line shades back towards the Steelers before kickoff, there is enough support for the underdogs that the line will never get to the key number of three.
NFL Week 5 Total Movement Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 48.5 ?' 49.5
Though this total differs by just one point since its opening number, the movement has been non-stop throughout the week. Earlier in the week, there was steady support on the Over, with the line getting as high as 51.5. From there, it was bet back down to 50, rebounded slightly to 50.5, and has seen relatively non-stop support on the Under from there. The total did reach 49 on Thursday afternoon before being bet back up to 49.5, so it is very possible the total creeps back into the 50s at some point. If this game were to kick off with an O/U of 50 or higher, that brings into play the trend that games with totals of 50+ points are 15-3 to the Under since the start of last season. However, the Over is 4-0 in the last four games between these teams, and the last two have had 51-plus combined points scored.
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams: 46 ?' 48.5
No total has increased more than this Packers-Rams tilt that is up 2.5 points from the opening number. Jordan Love started in his first game back from a two-week absence last week, and he threw a career-high four touchdown passes and now leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, albeit from a small sample size. The Packers scored 29 points against a Vikings defense that had allowed its fewest points through three games (30) since 1988, and bettors do not seem to care that most of that was scored in desperation mode after Green Bay buried itself in an early 28-0 hole. Love also has multiple touchdown passes in eight consecutive games, and the Over is 8-2 in Green Bay’s last 10 games against NFC opponents.
Los Angeles is still without its two best wide receivers (Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua), but the fact that it is home after starting 0-3 on the road for the first time since 2012 combined with Green Bay’s offensive potential was enough for bettors to weigh in heavily on the Over.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.