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NFL Week 5 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 5 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction. Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

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NFL Week 5 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since the Open

CHI moved from (+3.5) to (+6) at WAS

I’m more surprised by the opening line than the move itself, which I think now more properly reflects fair value. After coming down hard on the Bears, I will admit Chicago looked great last weekend. However, the Broncos’ defense is shaping up to be the worst we’ve seen in quite some time (32nd allowing 37.5 PPG, 461.5 Yd/Game, 7.1 Yd/Play. -0.27 EPA/Play). Washington bounced back with 31 points to hang tight with the NFC Champion Eagles, apparently sticking with bettors as we approach the weekend. The Commanders’ pass blocking’s so flawed I find it hard to lay six points, even against a challenged Chicago squad.

JAX moved from (+3) to (+5.5) at BUF

This AFC showdown has been circled by NFL fanatics since the early summer, and I’d wager most of them thought coming in it’d be capped a lot closer. The Bills stumbled out of the blockd versus the Jets in Week 1 but have completely turned it around since, averaging 41 points a game over a three-week span. Once the opening line got passed that critical (+3) it immediately collapsed more than two points, despite the Jaguars coming off a decisive victory versus the Falcons. I’m not a huge proponent of betting the overseas games but you have to factor in that while this game is in London, Jacksonville never left. Hard not to think it doesn’t afford them some type of advantage in regard to scheduling.

HOU moved from (+3) to (+2) at ATL

Finally, smidgens of respect are starting to bubble to the surface for the Texans behind rookie standout QB C.J.Stroud. The Texans have impressed so far and if the defense continues to improve they could challenge for the division.

TEN moved from (+1.5) to (-1) at IND

When using our system of point valuation, it becomes much less of a big deal when one team technically swings from “favorite” to “underdog”. The game is still capped near even, as it should be, and no one on either side should be paying a premium to cover ATS in a spot like this. I tend to like Indy playing at home with a more versatile offense than the Titans but you have to respect Tennesee’s preparation via the coaching staff.

CIN moved from (-5) to (-3) at ARI

Is there a clearer declaration on the state of the Bengals than this? A five-point opening line just moved two points, and not to seven, but toward a Cardinals team favored preseason to win the fewest amount of games. It goes to show you the importance of quarterback play and even more so that Joe Burrow’s 4.6 average target depth isn’t right. Not sure how you can expect the Bengals to win, let alone cover in this state.

NFL Week 5 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

NYG should moved from (+11) to (+11.5) at MIA

So far this week’s been really quiet in terms of giant price disparities on the betting board but one did stand out. NYG/MIA opened up in the double digits at more than $40 per point on each side with a +$130 intra-game difference. Given the trajectories of both teams plus the impact of primetime public perception, I don’t think there’s any stopping this line from getting to thirteen. Yes, Miami ran into the Buffalo buzzsaw and took a loss last weekend but that omits Big Blue looking an order of magnitude worse than dysfunctional against Seattle. New York’s defense struggled to cover the Seahawks’ pass-catchers, which should provide little confidence in their ability to suppress the track stars featured in the Dolphins’ prolific pass attack.

NFL Week 5 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

NFL Week 5 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • NYJ (+2) at DEN
  • HOU (+2) at ATL
  • NO (+1) at NE
  • IND (+1) vs. TEN

As usual, the vast majority of value-based decision-making happens on the margins around even. Remember this aspect of the work isn’t to pick a side but to maximize your chance at profitability once you do. I generally pick close games based on home field and QB play but in a few of these cases with injury, I’d rather just sit them out. That said, please don’t look past this simple math. Keep in mind that we’re nearly a quarter-way through the season and more than five percent of all NFL games have been decided by two points or less. Rest assured those bettors on the wrong side of the spread wish they’d done their due diligence

Week 4 BET: HOU +2, (-110) at ATL  to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-1, +0.9u)

Rough beat on our Chiefs last week after jumping ahead to an early 17-0 lead, yet ultimately unable to cover the final spread. This week I’m going with my biggest misprice on the board and the upstart Texans. Atlanta has played pretty solid on defense (19.3 PPG, 291.8 Yd/Game, 4.7 Yd/Play, 27.4 Average Drive Distance) but Houston’s not far behind, if at all, posting positive EPA stats across the board. The main difference here is the shot caller under center. Don’t look now but the Texans are comfortably in the top half of per-drive efficiency behind C.J. Stroud (33 yd/Drive, 2:53 ToP/Drive, 1.9 1stDown/Drive, 44% Drive Success). This production has come without much from Dameon Pierce, the presumed engine of the offense entering the season and that may be about to change. Houston’s tracking to get back Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard on the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the clock feels like it’s ticking for Desmond Ridder and his negative EPA. The “Dirty Birds’ own bottom-tier metrics in points, yards, and efficiency mostly due to a distinct inability to move the ball through the air. Then we have the fact Atlanta is flying back across the Atlantic Ocean after a loss and needs re-acclimation to all aspects of their usual regiment. I like the Texans to win it outright. That said, this is a perfect place to enact our cost-per-point analysis, not be greedy, and take the cheap points. Good luck.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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