NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: First Touchdown Scorer (2022)
With Week 4 in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to Week 5. The prop market continues to explode in popularity when betting on pro football, which is most likely a direct result of lifelong fantasy football players finally entering the betting landscape as legalization spreads.
Below, I will walk through my favorite first touchdown scorer bets for Week 5. These plays are a half-unit each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
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(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Terry McLaurin (+950)
The Washington Commanders host the Tennesse Titans as one-and-a-half point underdogs on Sunday. With receivers Johan Dotson and Curtis Samuel both questionable for this contest, WR1 Terry McLaurin should get even more looks than he typically does.
Whether just Dotson, Samuel, or both play the game, McLaurin should be a strong play as he is second on the team in targets and is going against a terrible Tennessee secondary. Entering this game, the Titans rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game and 25th in points surrendered per game.
Tennessee has a young secondary, specifically at the cornerback position, and they have been burnt numerous times this season. They gave up 148 yards and three touchdowns to Stefon Diggs in Week 2, 158 yards and one touchdown to Mack Hollins in Week 3, and 85 yards and two touchdowns to Mo Alie-Cox in Week 4.
Of the 11 touchdowns this defense has surrendered this season, 10 have been through the air. Meanwhile, eight of Washington’s 10 touchdowns this season have been through the air.
As a short home underdog going against a bad defense, look for the Commanders to start this game strong.
Chris Godwin (+700)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons as 10-point favorites on Sunday. First things first, Chris Godwin is questionable to play in this game with a knee injury, but everything I am reading/hearing suggests It is more likely than not that he will play.
If he does not go, then this play is simply graded as a push, and you get your money back. While many things change in this league, the one constant through the past couple of seasons has been Atlanta’s terrible secondary.
Entering this week, the Falcons rank 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and points surrendered per game. Before the season, PFF ranked Atlanta as the 11th worst secondary, and they are even underperforming that projection.
This season, getting burnt by receivers has been a common trend for the Falcons. They gave up 57 yards and two touchdowns to Michael Thomas in Week 1, 108 yards and two touchdowns to Cooper Kupp in Week 2, and 64 yards and a touchdown to DK Metcalf in Week 3.
Of the 11 touchdowns Atlanta has surrendered this year, seven have been through the air. Meanwhile, six of Tampa Bay’s seven offensive touchdowns have been through the air.
At 7/1, I am taking Godwin as a value play, even though Mike Evans is usually a big red zone threat (11/2). Also, a fun fact, if you will, Tom Brady is 10-0 against the Falcons in his career.
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.