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NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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The Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions are each favored by double-digits in Week 5, while no other team is favored by more than a touchdown. Some questionable spreads and lopsided matchups could mean longshot bets are in store for a good week!

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 5 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 5 Longshot Bets

Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs to Score 35+ Points (+1550)

This prop is currently only being offered at bet365, but it's one of our favorite longshot plays of the week. The Vikings are coming off a terrible offensive performance, while the Chiefs may have played their worst game of 2023 against the New York Jets. 

Yet, when these two offenses get going, they can absolutely explode for points. The Chiefs have only scored more than 23 points once this season, but they're about to face a defense that’s been allowing 367.3 yards and nearly 24 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Vikings' passing offense is electric. Last week was a down performance for them, but Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and TJ Hockenson have the ability to go off at any time. They're averaging 303.5 yards per game, and the run game is nonexistent and will continue to be this week. If the offenses play to their full abilities, this is a game that could end up with both teams scoring in the 40s.

Detroit Lions -20.5 & Miami Dolphins -14 (+737)

The Panthers' offense has not been able to get it done with Bryce Young under center. In games started by the rookie, the Panthers have scored 20 points just once. This week, they play the Lions, a team that has outscored their last two opponents 54-26.

Though the Lions' biggest win this season is 14 points, they've dominated their last two opponents and they could have easily won by more. The Panthers' defense has been decent this season, but they have allowed 20 or more points in every game, including 37 against the Seattle Seahawks. With the Lions' full offensive arsenal healthy and with the way their defense is playing, this game could end 28-0.

To make this a true longshot, we're going to parlay the Lions -20.5 with the Dolphins -14. The Dolphins play the New York Giants, a team that just allowed 11 sacks to the Seahawks. Offensively, the Giants are a disaster. They've scored a combined 15 points in their last two games and if you don't include the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals, the Giants have scored 26 points in 15 quarters.

The Dolphins were destroyed by the Buffalo Bills last week, but this is a very easy matchup for them. Their defense won't be exploited by the Giants, and the offense should be able to put up at least 28 points, just like three of the Giants' four opponents have this season.

Arizona Cardinals -9.5 (+474)

The Cardinals are home underdogs on Sunday. Why? It's not 2022 anymore, and the Cincinnati Bengals prove that every time they step on the field. They currently have the worst offense in football, and it is very likely that Tee Higgins will miss this week's game.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals and quarterback Josh Dobbs have looked way better than anyone expected. They beat the Cowboys and despite losing their other three games, two of those were decided by four or fewer points, and they were within a score against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter last week.

Maybe we're getting carried away with this spread, but that's why it's a long shot. And the way the Cardinals have played at home mixed with the terrible offensive performance the Bengals have put together this season makes us believe this really could be a blowout won by the underdog.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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