Navigate

NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2023)

by |

NFL Underdogs took a bit of a step back in Week 4, but even in a down week, we still saw five Underdogs cover the spread, and three won outright (Not including the Ravens, who shifted to a favorite before kickoff). There will be weeks like this throughout the season, and this just tells me that more chaos is on the way soon.

Week 5 begins the bye weeks for NFL teams, and unfortunately, less football to watch. An early look at the board reveals a couple of double-digit underdogs and several games with a spread of less than 3 points. Let’s take a deep dive into these games and see if we can pick off some Underdog winners for Week 5.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

      NFL Week 5: Top Underdog Bets

      Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)

      Listen, I know I’m crazy for picking the Steelers right now, but I have to trust the system here. After a 30-6 beatdown at Houston and an offense that is in the bottom five in the league, it looks like there’s no hope for this Steelers team in the long run. In addition, the Ravens have looked great despite having some key injuries in the first month of the season.

      However, there are two things for certain that will be on our side for Sunday:

      1. The Steelers are a completely different team at home.

      2. Acrisure Stadium will be packed and loud all afternoon. The Steelers faithful does not take weeks off – especially against the Ravens in this classic rivalry.

      Hopefully, the Steelers defense can feed off the energy in the stadium and bounce back from an embarrassing performance last week. Ultimately, this bet will come down to if this mediocre Steelers offense can get in the end zone.

      History is also on our side here. The Steelers have won five of the past six matchups, and they’ve all been decided by five points or less. The teams know each other very well, and their defenses keep the game close. It usually comes down to the 4th quarter and who can make the big plays at the end of the game.

      I’m going to trust the numbers here and back this Steelers team at home to bounce back and put up a fight against the Ravens.

      Bet: Steelers +4 vs. Ravens (-110)

      Houston Texans (+2) vs. Atlanta Falcons

      This feels like a classic Vegas trap bet, but I’m going to take a chance on the Texans here for a few different reasons. Most importantly, Desmond Ridder does not look like an NF quarterback, and I don’t have any faith in him to go out and win a game if the Falcons fall behind. I truly believe CJ Stroud is a better NFL quarterback at this point in their careers. The Falcons are in the bottom 1o in Total Offense in the NFL, while the Texans are in the top 10. Both defenses are within the top 13 in Total Defense, but the Falcons have played average to below-average offenses in the Panthers, Packers, and Jaguars. Lastly, I simply trust what DeMeco Ryans is doing in Houston. As a former Texans standout LB, I believe he truly cares about this organization and is dedicated to having everyone buy into what he’s doing. This team is on the rise, and I don’t see the Falcons slowing down their momentum.

      It’ll be a tough road test, but I’m trusting Ryans to put together a strong defensive gameplan to limit Bijan Robinson’s effectiveness and confuse Ridder all afternoon. I simply can’t back a Falcons team as a favorite with Ridder at QB.

      Take the Texans with the points and outright to get it done in Atlanta this week.

      Bet: Texans +2 vs. Falcons (-110)

      Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

      I saved the best for last – I couldn’t pass up betting on the best game of the 2023 NFL season thus far. This is easily my favorite bet of the week. Of course, it’s hard to feel good about going against this dominant 49ers team, but here I am explaining why you should.

      Both teams have looked excellent over the first month of the season. The 49ers had a couple of semi-close divisional games, and besides a weird loss to the Cardinals, the Cowboys have blown out their other three opponents. We know the 49ers have great units up front on the offensive and defensive lines. This Cowboys team is one of the few that can match their physicality on both sides of the ball. Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence against Trent Williams and company will be the matchup to watch all night. Pressuring and disrupting Brock Purdy is the recipe to neutralize this 49ers offense, and no team is more equipped to do so than the Cowboys. Trevon Diggs would have been very useful against Brandon Aiyuk’s downfield abilities, but I think Stephon Gilmore, Malik Hooker and Co. can pick up the slack there, especially if this front seven can get pressure on Purdy.

      On the other side of the ball, Zack Martin and this offensive line are up for the challenge against Nick Bosa and this strong defensive line. I’m expecting Dan Prescott and the passing game to go after this secondary, which is pretty average compared to the rest of this team. Ceedee Lamb is the key player for me in this matchup. I'm betting on the Cowboys’ defense to keep this one close and possibly win this game, as this is a very important game for implications on the NFC’s 1 seed.

      Bet: Cowboys +3.5 vs. 49ers (-110)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

      Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>

      Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

      Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

      BettingPros App