NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Cowboys vs. Rams (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 5. You can check out all of our early Week 5 NFL content below, including our early picks and predictions for the week ahead. And here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 5 matchup: Cowboys vs. Rams.
- Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
- NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions
- Video: NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Moneyline Underdog Bets
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: Cowboys vs. Rams
Whether or not it’s a real controversy, it’s hard to ignore that the Dallas Cowboys are now 3-0 when Cooper Rush plays. He may not be the flashiest quarterback, but his game management is enough to win for the Cowboys, who put the heavy lifting on their very strong defense.
The Dallas defense was able to hit Carson Wentz 11 times last week. They were also able to compile 2 sacks, 6 tackles for losses, four passes deflected, and two interceptions. Washington came into the game having converted 47.62% of their third downs but was held to a 33.33% conversion rate by the Cowboys.
The Los Angeles Rams limp into this game after an ugly loss in San Francisco, where it looked like outside of Cooper Kupp, this offense really struggles to move the ball. Being so one-dimensional against a defense like Dallas could lead to an upset in Los Angeles. I could see a low-scoring game where Cooper Rush and Ezekiel Elliot give enough room for the Cowboys’ defense to take Kupp out of the play and make Matt Stafford try to beat them in other ways that he hasn’t been able to do yet this year.
Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (+180)
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Cowboys Offense vs. Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.057 | 23 | 0.028 | 18 | -5 |
| Total SR | 41.4% | 22 | 42.0% | 8 | -14 |
| Total DVOA | 0.7% | 17 | 3.0% | 18 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.027 | 21 | 0.176 | 25 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 40.5% | 26 | 46.6% | 21 | -5 |
| Pass DVOA | 19.2% | 13 | 21.8% | 25 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 7 | 5.6% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush EPA | -0.101 | 22 | -0.251 | 1 | -21 |
| Rush SR | 42.7% | 13 | 33.3% | 4 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | 0.0% | 12 | -27.5% | 3 | -9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.32 | 20 | 4.16 | 11 | -9 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 5.6 | 16 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 71 | 27 | 94 | 18 | -9 |
Rams Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.094 | 28 | -0.071 | 8 | -20 |
| Total SR | 46.8% | 10 | 40.3% | 4 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -10.5% | 26 | -15.3% | 5 | -21 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.088 | 28 | -0.08 | 9 | -19 |
| Dropback SR | 50.9% | 7 | 42.9% | 10 | 3 |
| Pass DVOA | -0.9% | 22 | -26.1% | 5 | -17 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.4% | 29 | 10.3% | 1 | -28 |
| Rush EPA | -0.106 | 23 | -0.056 | 19 | -4 |
| Rush SR | 38.0% | 25 | 35.7% | 6 | -19 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.9% | 19 | 0.4% | 25 | 6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.00 | 23 | 4.53 | 17 | -6 |
| Yards per Play | 4.7 | 31 | 4.6 | 4 | -27 |
| Points per Game | 70 | 29 | 62 | 3 | -26 |
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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