NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Jets (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 5. You can check out all of our early Week 5 NFL content below, including our early picks and predictions for the week ahead. And here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 5 matchup: Dolphins vs. Jets.
- Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
- NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions
- Video: NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Moneyline Underdog Bets
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Jets
The New York Jets will host the Miami Dolphins at Metlife Stadium in Week 5. The primary concern for both of these teams is what they will be able to get out of their quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa will be out this week after a scary scene on the field in Week 4. Teddy Bridgewater will get the start for the Dolphins. In relief last week, Bridgewater went 14 of 23 for 193 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
The Jets will be hoping to build on last week’s win where the defense stepped up with 4 interceptions, 3 sacks and 9 passes deflected. If Robert Saleh can get his defense to disrupt Bridgewater, the Jets could win this game outright as long as they get some steady play from second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson returned from injury for his first action of the 2022 season in Week 4 and was able to get the win over the Steelers. The 2021 2nd overall selection went 18 of 36 for 252 yards, 1 touchdown pass, 2 interceptions, and a touchdown reception.
Pick: The New York Jets (+148)
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Dolphins Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.162 | 2 | 0.083 | 29 | 27 |
| Total SR | 47.0% | 9 | 44.8% | 20 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | 20.6% | 2 | 9.3% | 25 | 23 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.276 | 3 | 0.215 | 29 | 26 |
| Dropback SR | 51.3% | 5 | 46.6% | 21 | 16 |
| Pass DVOA | 51.4% | 2 | 26.4% | 29 | 27 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 8 | 6.4% | 17 | 9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.061 | 17 | -0.101 | 11 | -6 |
| Rush SR | 38.8% | 21 | 42.3% | 20 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.1% | 20 | -11.3% | 14 | -6 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.78 | 28 | 4.09 | 10 | -18 |
| Yards per Play | 6.4 | 2 | 5.4 | 14 | 12 |
| Points per Game | 98 | 9 | 101 | 25 | 16 |
Jets Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.073 | 26 | 0.076 | 26 | 0 |
| Total SR | 39.4% | 28 | 47.7% | 28 | 0 |
| Total DVOA | -8.9% | 23 | 10.7% | 28 | 5 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.068 | 25 | 0.239 | 31 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.5% | 24 | 52.8% | 32 | 8 |
| Pass DVOA | -1.8% | 23 | 33.6% | 31 | 8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 13 | 4.8% | 30 | 17 |
| Rush EPA | -0.087 | 19 | -0.250 | 2 | -17 |
| Rush SR | 34.1% | 30 | 37.5% | 9 | -21 |
| Rush DVOA | -13.4% | 21 | -23.4% | 4 | -17 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.06 | 22 | 3.46 | 4 | -18 |
| Yards per Play | 5 | 24 | 6.2 | 28 | 4 |
| Points per Game | 76 | 18 | 91 | 16 | -2 |
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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