NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Giants vs. Packers (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 5. You can check out all of our early Week 5 NFL content below, including our early picks and predictions for the week ahead. And here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 5 matchup: Giants vs. Packers.
- Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 5 Early Bets and Trends
- NFL Week 5 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions
- Video: NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NFL Week 5 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Moneyline Underdog Bets
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Predictions: Giants vs. Packers
With Daniel Jones’ (ankle) and Tyrod Taylor’s (concussion) statuses currently unknown for the London matchup against the Packers, there are reports that the Giants are working out current free agent quarterbacks including Jake Fromm before Week 5. It’s hard to bet on that situation, but if you are looking for a longshot bet for Week 5, maybe you can ignore the quarterback position and look at the New York Giants’ strength vs. the Green Bay Packers’ weakness.
The Giants currently rank first in the league in rushing yards per game with 192.5. The Packers’ run defense currently ranks 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game, allowing for 126.8 yards per game. This has the potential to be a huge day for Saquon Barkley, and it may not matter who is handing the ball to him. At the same time, the Packers rank seventh in the league in rushing with 145 yards per game, and the Giants’ run defense ranks 28th, allowing 141 yards per game. This could result in a run-heavy game potentially limiting the importance of the quarterbacks, which would be a great thing for the Giants in a matchup against Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: The New York Giants (+340)
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Giants Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.016 | 17 | -0.032 | 11 | -6 |
| Total SR | 40.8% | 25 | 45.1% | 22 | -3 |
| Total DVOA | 0.8% | 16 | 2.9% | 17 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.038 | 22 | -0.104 | 7 | -15 |
| Dropback SR | 42.0% | 23 | 39.5% | 1 | -22 |
| Pass DVOA | 3.0% | 19 | -5.5% | 9 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 12.0% | 31 | 9.4% | 6 | -25 |
| Rush EPA | 0.015 | 8 | 0.059 | 27 | 19 |
| Rush SR | 39.1% | 19 | 52.0% | 31 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.6% | 7 | 12.0% | 28 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.33 | 19 | 5.36 | 32 | 13 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 5.4 | 14 | -5 |
| Points per Game | 76 | 18 | 69 | 7 | -11 |
Packers Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.007 | 14 | 0.02 | 16 | 2 |
| Total SR | 47.3% | 8 | 42.7% | 11 | 3 |
| Total DVOA | 13.3% | 8 | 8.2% | 23 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.002 | 19 | 0.038 | 15 | -4 |
| Dropback SR | 46.9% | 14 | 43.4% | 12 | -2 |
| Pass DVOA | 17.4% | 14 | 16.4% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 14 | 6.5% | 16 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.018 | 12 | -0.005 | 24 | 12 |
| Rush SR | 47.8% | 3 | 41.6% | 18 | 15 |
| Rush DVOA | 11.0% | 5 | -2.4% | 21 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.00 | 5 | 4.88 | 25 | 20 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 10 | 5.7 | 19 | 9 |
| Points per Game | 75 | 21 | 71 | 9 | -12 |
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
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