NFL Week 5 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
In Week 4, I correctly predicted that the Denver Broncos and New York Jets would be the lowest-scoring game of the weekend. That result gave us a nice +650 winner. For this week, is there a solid moneyline parlay to consider featuring two underdogs? Can Josh Jacobs get back on track against the Los Angeles Rams? And what kind of offense should we expect from the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts?
Here are the best longshot bets for Week 5 of the NFL season.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Best NFL Week 5 Longshot Bets
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Jets/Carolina Panthers Moneyline Parlay (+491)
The Jets are traveling to London to take on one of the last remaining undefeated teams. After a bad 10-9 loss at home in Week 4, there's not much reason to have faith in them this weekend. So why is the spread only 2.5 points?
The Vikings are 4-0 and coming off a huge road win over their division rivals and they get their bye week next week. The Jets have a great defense that can slow Sam Darnold down, but most importantly, the Jets need this game. This means so much more to them than Minnesota. Weird things happen in football games in Europe.
We're going to parlay the Jets with the Panthers. The Panthers have looked significantly better with Andy Dalton under center, and the veteran quarterback won't get rattled by the Bears' defense. The Bears’ offense still isn't clicking, so this game will stay close no matter how good the defense plays. Dalton will secure this game with a last-second touchdown drive.
Josh Jacobs 100+ Rushing Yards (+425)
Since a 32-carry, 151-yard performance in Week 2, Josh Jacobs has been quiet. He's run the ball 23 times for 94 yards in his last two games combined. Emanuel Wilson has run the ball 20 times during that same span.
I don't think Jacobs is in danger of getting caught up in a split backfield, I just think the Packers are playing it safe with the running back because they know they have a long season ahead. This week, Jacobs will break out against a Rams defense that is allowing 165.5 rushing yards per game - the most in the league.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Highest Scoring Game (+650)
Last week, I correctly picked the lowest-scoring game. This week, I'm attempting to pick the game with the most points. The Jaguars defense has been really bad this season. They're allowing the third-most points and yards per game this year, and they've given up 71 points in their last two games.
The Colts haven't given up too many points, but they've also played Malik Willis, the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Those aren't the best offenses in football by any means. The Jaguars are the most desperate team in football right now. While they've only scored 20 points in two of their four games this season, this matchup is advantageous for them.
We don't know if Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson will be under center for the Colts this weekend. It really doesn't matter who gets the start. They're going to take advantage of one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.