NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The NFL is a bettor’s dream, offering a boatload of wagering options. One of the best betting markets is the NFL Week 5 player prop bet market. They are an opportunity to bet on a player’s stats, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, or touchdowns. They have perfect crossover appeal for fantasy sports gamers dipping their toes into the betting world. Savvy gamblers wisely check many books for the best prop odds, and the following suggestions are my favorite props after scanning multiple sportsbooks.
So, let’s look at some NFL Week 5 player prop bets.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Christian Kirk Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Christian Kirk is in a position to bounce back from last week’s underwhelming showing in the rain against Philadelphia’s loaded defense. Still, it was promising that 60 yards on two receptions were a disappointing outing for Kirk. It speaks to his productivity as Jacksonville’s No. 1 wideout.
He had 117, 78, and 72 yards in the first three weeks. In addition, Kirk has shined in advanced stats and underlying numbers. First, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Kirk has the 10th-highest Target Share (27.9%). Second, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kirk’s 11th out of 74 wideouts targeted at least 15 times this season with 2.42 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR).
Kirk will also benefit from the matchup. The game should be played fast. According to Football Outsiders, the Jags have played at the fifth-fastest situation-neutral pace, and the Texans have been sixth-fastest. Moreover, the Texans have been barbecued by No. 1 wide receivers. Per Football Outsiders, they’ve allowed 105.7 receiving yards per game to them.
As a result, Kirk’s outlook for piling up yardage is great. So, FantasyPros projects Kirk for 73.3 receiving yards, putting him over his yardage prop.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
The Lions are a dream matchup for opposing offenses. According to Football Outsiders, they’re 32nd in total defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, they’re dead last in rush defense DVOA.
It’s not a surprise to see running backs have destroyed them. Per Pro-Football-Reference, running backs are averaging 119.75 scrimmage yards per game against the Lions. They’re also rumbling for a blistering 5.31 yards per carry.
Therefore, the Patriots should be able to establish the run to their heart’s content. Bailey Zappe is starting this week, and the Patriots often ran last week in a game in which Brian Hoyer started and Zappe relieved him. Damien Harris toted the rock 18 times for 86 yards, and Rhamondre Stevenson had 66 rushing yards on 14 carries.
However, Stevenson is the game-script-proof back between the two. According to PFF, Stevenson has run 61 routes compared to only 26 for Harris since Week 2. Thus, if the Patriots end up in a hole, Stevenson can do damage through the air. Last week, he had four receptions for 23 yards on a team-high five targets.
Stevenson has had 101 and 89 rushing-plus-receiving yards in the last two weeks. He’ll look to stay hot this week, and FantasyPros projects Stevenson for 78 rushing-plus-receiving yards against the Lions. So, gamblers should take comfort in the projection and bet on Stevenson’s over.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.