NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Oct 06, 2023

Things did not go swimmingly with player props in Week 4. I ran aground with my picks, going 3-5 â€” the first losing week of the season.

But, hey, losing weeks are inevitable. We just have to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, hitch up our britches and get back to work. Let's tackle Week 5 with a vengeance.

First, a quick recap of Week 4 â€¦

The wins: Matthew Stafford over 263.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 65.5 rushing yards, Adam Thielen over 4.5 receptions

The losses: Sam Howell under 216.5 passing yards, Baker Mayfield under 220.5 passing yards, Rachaad White under 52.5 rushing yards, Samaje Perine over 18.5 rushing yards, David Njoku under 29.5 receiving yards

Last week: 3-5
Season record: 18-15

Here are my favorite selections for Week 5 ...

NFL Week 5 Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.

Russell Wilson UNDER 224.5 passing yards

Russ is averaging 253.5 passing yards per game, but his first four opponents â€” the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins and Bears â€” all rank bottom 10 in the league in DVOA against the pass. This week, Wilson gets a much more difficult matchup against a Jets defense that has given up 217 or fewer passing yards to three of its first four opponents. The Jets have two terrific cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, and they have a dangerous pass rush. Russ has been cooking, but the Jets are going to take away his pots, pans and cutlery.

Brock Purdy UNDER 245.5 passing yards

In Brock Purdy's first six starts of the 2022 season (including a playoff win over Seattle), he didn't face a defense that ranked better than 13th in DVOA against the pass. He averaged 238.3 passing yards in those six games and threw multiple TD passes in all of them. When Purdy ran into a strong Dallas pass defense in the playoffs, he had 214 passing yards and zero touchdowns. The four pass defenses the 49ers have faced so far this season rank 13th, 21st, 29th and 30th in DVOA. Now, Purdy is preparing for another game against the Cowboys, whose pass defense is No. 1 in DVOA (although the loss of CB Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL is problematic for the Cowboys). This is a high bar for Purdy to clear against a tough D.

Bijan Robinson OVER 77.5 rushing yards

The over on Bijan Robinson rushing yardage continues to be a weekly auto-bet. This is the highest rushing total we've seen for Bijan this season, but he gets a favorable matchup against the perennially soft Houston rushing defense. The Texans rank 28th in DVOA vs. the run, and we know how much Falcons head coach Arthur Smith loves to run the ball. Invest in Atlantaâ€™s rookie phenom with confidence.

Jaylen Warren UNDER 29.5 rushing yards

Warren hasn't had more than eight carries or 29 rushing yards in a game this season. There's been speculation that the Steelers might expand Warren's role because he's more explosive than teammate Najee Harris, but Warren isn't likely to get a usage bump after a game in which he had worrisome ball-security issues. Warren fumbled once in Pittsburgh's 30-6 loss to Houston last week. Another apparent Warren fumble was scooped up and returned for a would-be touchdown by the Texans' Will Anderson, but Warren was ruled down by contact. The Steelers have a tough matchup this week against a good Ravens defense. Fade Warren.

D'Andre Swift OVER 63.5 rushing yards

Over his last three games, Swift is averaging 19.3 carries and 120.3 rushing yards. He's now the unquestioned lead back for an Eagles team that has a fantastic offensive line and a defense that can help set up run-friendly game scripts for the offense. This week, Swift goes against a Rams run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA.

Dalton Kincaid OVER 27.5 receiving yards

In Buffalo's Week 4 win over the Dolphins, Kincaid had a 20% target share, and the Bills' other tight end, Dawson Knox, had his lowest snap share of the season (50%). Kincaid has only 99 receiving yards, but his time is coming. Look for him to have a nice game in London against a Jaguars defense that let Falcons TE Jonnu Smith rampage for 95 yards last week.

Robert Woods OVER 41.5 receiving yards

As my colleague Derek Brown noted in this week's installment of The Primer, Week 5 sets up well for Woods in a matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta CBs A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah are good cover men, but Woods is likely to run a majority of his routes against Dee Alford, who has allowed a 77.3% catch rate and a 125.8 passer rating on throws into his coverage. Over the last three weeks' Woods has had a team-high 19.4% target share.

Chris Olave OVER 62.5 receiving yards

Olave has cleared this number in three of four games this season. He had only one 4-yard catch last week, but Olave should rebound in Week 5 against a Patriots defense that just lost CB Christian Gonzalez to a torn labrum. Olave has thus far earned a 26.6% target share and 42.7% air-yard share.

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 49.5 yards

It's been a slow start to the season for Hopkins, but he's still cleared this number in two of his first four games and is averaging 54 yards per contest. The Colts are giving up 195.8 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Hopkins has a 27.5% target share this season and should see plenty of targets this week with Titans WR Treylon Burks ruled out with a knee injury.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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