NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Eagles vs. Cardinals (2022)
Below you’ll find my projected spreads for each game along with one of my best bets of the week: Eagles vs. Cardinals. You can find all of my best bets of the week here.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread & Best Bets
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
Check out our Eagles at Cardinals matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Eagles at Cardinals: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Eagles -5.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Moneyline: Eagles -230, Cardinals +195
Eagles at Cardinals: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Eagles – 50% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Over – 71% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Cardinals – 56% bets, 85% money
Eagles at Cardinals: Injuries
Eagles: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jake Elliott | K | Right Ankle | DNP |
| Kyron Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Patrick Johnson | LB | Concussion | DNP |
| Avonte Maddox | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Jordan Mailata | OT | Shoulder | DNP |
| Boston Scott | RB | Rib | LP |
| Isaac Seumalo | G | Ankle | LP |
| Darius Slay | CB | Forearm | FP |
Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Derek Barnett | DE | IR |
| Andre Dillard | T | IR |
| Jaeden Graham | TE | IR |
| Greg Ward | WR | IR |
| Tyree Jackson | TE | PUP |
| Brett Toth | T/G | PUP |
Cardinals: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Kelvin Beachum | OT | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Marquise Brown | WR | Foot | DNP |
| Zach Ertz | TE | NIR-Rest | DNP |
| Max Garcia | G | Toe | DNP |
| Rodney Hudson | C | Knee | DNP |
| Rashard Lawrence | NT | Hand | DNP |
| Matt Prater | K | Right Hip | DNP |
| Justin Pugh | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Nick Vigil | OLB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Maxx Williams | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Zaven Collins | ILB | Shoulder | LP |
| A.J. Green | WR | Knee | LP |
| D.J. Humphries | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Zeke Turner | LB | Ankle | LP |
| J.J. Watt | DE | Calf | LP |
Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tae Daley | S | IR |
| Cody Ford | OL | IR |
| Marquis Hayes | OL | IR |
| Joshua Miles | OL | IR |
| Charles Washington | S | IR |
| Antonio Hamilton | CB | IR |
| Colt McCoy | QB | IR |
| Antoine Wesley | WR | IR |
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Suspended |
Eagles at Cardinals: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Cardinals Trends
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 20-9-2 ATS (32.0% ROI) as underdog
- HC Kliff Kingsbury: 16-14-1 ML (43.6% ROI) as underdog
Eagles at Cardinals: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Eagles Offense vs. Cardinals Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.12 | 5 | 0.047 | 21 | 16 |
| Total SR | 46.1% | 13 | 48.1% | 29 | 16 |
| Total DVOA | 17.9% | 4 | 11.3% | 29 | 25 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.198 | 4 | 0.19 | 26 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 46.3% | 16 | 52.6% | 31 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 39.9% | 4 | 24.1% | 28 | 24 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.1% | 20 | 3.1% | 32 | 12 |
| Rush EPA | 0.025 | 6 | -0.226 | 3 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 45.8% | 8 | 39.5% | 13 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | 7.3% | 6 | -13.9% | 11 | 5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.44 | 16 | 4.56 | 18 | 2 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 6.1 | 27 | 22 |
| Points per Game | 28.8 | 4 | 25.8 | 28 | 24 |
Cardinals Offense vs. Eagles Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.011 | 15 | -0.153 | 2 | -13 |
| Total SR | 43.5% | 19 | 42.9% | 13 | -6 |
| Total DVOA | -8.5% | 22 | -24.8% | 3 | -19 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.014 | 20 | -0.204 | 1 | -19 |
| Dropback SR | 42.2% | 22 | 41.0% | 3 | -19 |
| Pass DVOA | -6.9% | 25 | -36.8% | 2 | -23 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 10.1% | 2 | -7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 28 | 4.5 | 3 | -25 |
| Points per Game | 22 | 14 | 17.8 | 9 | -5 |
Eagles at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jalen Hurts
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.133 | 6 |
| AY/A | 9 | 2 |
| QBR | 60.7 | 10 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.6 | 8 |
Career: Jalen Hurts
- AY/A: 7.4
- QB Elo per Game: 46.9
2022: Kyler Murray
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.034 | 25 |
| AY/A | 5.8 | 25 |
| QBR | 48.4 | 17 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.0 | 7 |
Career: Kyler Murray
- AY/A: 7.0
- QB Elo per Game: 65.7
Key Matchup: Cardinals Rush Offense vs. Eagles Rush Defense
The Cardinals have been something of a joke under HC Kliff Kingsbury with their “horizontal raid†passing attack — but they’ve also always been able to run the ball well, given that QB Kyler Murray is a strong scrambler and the offense forces defenses to spread out.
And on defense the Eagles have continued to struggle against the run despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft).
This year the Cardinals offense has outperformed the Eagles defense in every key rush efficiency metric.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | -0.004 | 11 | -0.028 | 22 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 46.4% | 7 | 47.3% | 26 | 19 |
| Rush DVOA | -1.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 23 | 9 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.65 | 12 | 4.57 | 19 | 7 |
If a home team can run the ball with success, it has a good chance to cover, whether it’s a favorite or an underdog.
In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2.5. They have underperformed expectations to open the year, and the Eagles have outperformed, but not enough for this line to move eight points in just four games.
Best Line: Cardinals +5.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Cardinals +6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Cardinals +2.75
Limit: Cardinals +5
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