NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Lions vs. Patriots (2022)
Below you’ll find my projected spreads for each game along with one of my best bets of the week: Lions vs. Patriots. You can find all of my best bets of the week here.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread & Best Bets
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Check out our Lions at Patriots matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium
- TV: FOX
Lions at Patriots: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Patriots -159, Lions +140
Lions at Patriots: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Patriots – 45% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 73% bets, 76% money
- Moneyline: Patriots – 61% bets, 61% money
Lions at Patriots: Injuries
Lions: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Chris Board | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Evan Brown | C | Ankle | DNP |
| Quintez Cephus | WR | Foot | DNP |
| D.J. Chark | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| John Cominsky | DE | Wrist | DNP |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | Hip | DNP |
| Frank Ragnow | C | Foot | DNP |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | Shoulder/Ankle | DNP |
| Kayode Awosika | OT | Hamstring | LP |
| Taylor Decker | OT | Knee | LP |
| Jonah Jackson | G | Finger | LP |
| Matt Nelson | OT | Cal | LP |
| Austin Seibert | K | Right Groin | LP |
Lions: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Tommy Kraemer | G | IR |
| Levi Onwuzurike | DL | IR |
| Halapoulivaati Vaitai | G | IR |
| Tracy Walker III | S | IR |
| Jameson Williams | WR | NFI |
| Jason Cabinda | FB | PUP |
| Jerry Jacobs | CB | PUP |
| Romeo Okwara | DL | PUP |
| Josh Paschal | DL | PUP |
Patriots: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Lawrence Guy | DE | Shoulder | DNP |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | Concussion | DNP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Concussion | DNP |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Ankle | DNP |
| Kyle Dugger | S | Knee | LP |
| Mac Jones | QB | Ankle | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | LP |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Ribs | LP |
| Isaiah Wynn | OT | Hip | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Lions at Patriots: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Lions Trends
- HC Dan Campbell: 14-6 ATS (33.9% ROI) as underdog
- Road Underdogs: 179-145-10 ATS (6.4% ROI) off loss (since 2018, when sports betting was legalized)
Patriots Trends
- Home Favorites: 140-173-9 ATS (7.7% ROI for faders) when having a losing record the year after making postseason
- Home Favorites: 421-471-50 ATS (4.6% ROI for faders) with spread of no more than -3
Lions at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Lions Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.111 | 8 | 0.048 | 22 | 14 |
| Total SR | 42.0% | 21 | 46.9% | 26 | 5 |
| Total DVOA | 15.0% | 7 | 4.3% | 19 | 12 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.119 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 43.8% | 21 | 43.4% | 12 | -9 |
| Pass DVOA | 24.0% | 12 | -2.7% | 10 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.4% | 2 | 8.4% | 7 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.098 | 2 | 0.119 | 29 | 27 |
| Rush SR | 39.3% | 18 | 52.0% | 31 | 13 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.5% | 4 | 13.5% | 31 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.10 | 4 | 4.64 | 21 | 17 |
| Yards per Play | 6.5 | 1 | 5.6 | 16 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 35 | 1 | 24.5 | 22 | 21 |
Patriots Offense vs. Lions Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.014 | 16 | 0.209 | 32 | 16 |
| Total SR | 48.1% | 6 | 50.9% | 31 | 25 |
| Total DVOA | -0.5% | 18 | 18.8% | 32 | 14 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.092 | 29 | 0.234 | 30 | 1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.1% | 17 | 51.1% | 28 | 11 |
| Pass DVOA | -11.1% | 28 | 18.9% | 24 | -4 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 8.2% | 23 | 6.0% | 21 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.095 | 3 | 0.163 | 32 | 29 |
| Rush SR | 51.0% | 1 | 50.5% | 28 | 27 |
| Rush DVOA | 23.6% | 1 | 18.5% | 32 | 31 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.22 | 1 | 4.75 | 24 | 23 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 31 | 20 |
| Points per Game | 18.5 | 23 | 35.3 | 32 | 9 |
Lions at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jared Goff
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.086 | 13 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 67.1 | 8 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 1.2 | 9 |
Career: Jared Goff
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 6.0
2022: Brian Hoyer
As a backup, QB Brian Hoyer (concussion) hasn’t played enough snaps to accumulate meaningful statistics this year. Additionally, he’s uncertain to play, although I think he’s likelier to suit up than starter Mac Jones (ankle), whose Week 3 injury was expected to sideline him for multiple weeks.
Career: Brian Hoyer
- AY/A: 6.7
- QB Elo per Game: -50.2
Key Matchup: Lions Rush Offense vs. Patriots Rush Defense
Even without No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle), I expect the Lions to run successfully against the Patriots defense, which ranks No. 31 in both rush DVOA (13.5%) and rush SR (52.0%).
I’m not worried about the Wednesday DNP for C Frank Ragnow (foot), who last week was DNP for Wednesday, LP for Thursday and FP on Friday before not even showing up on the final injury report. He’s playing on Sunday.
And LG Jonah Jackson (finger) is trending in the right direction with his Wednesday LP after not practicing at all last week. He might actually suit up.
On the other side, the Patriots last week were without DT Lawrence Guy (shoulder), one of their main interior run stoppers. After suffering his injury in Week 3, he didn’t practice at all in Week 4, and his Wednesday DNP this week is a negative sign for his Week 5 availability.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Lions offensive line has a massive edge over the Patriots defensive line.
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DET | NE | 26 | 23 |
I expect the Lions to push the Patriots around and control the ball via the ground attack, which should keep this game close.
This line was Lions +1 in the lookahead market, and that’s where I have it projected now. Maybe the market believes that Patriots QB Mac Jones has a real shot to play this week, but I’m skeptical.
Best Line: Lions +3.5 (-115, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Lions +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Lions +1
Limit: Lions +3
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