NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Raiders vs. Chiefs (2022)
Below you’ll find my projected spreads for each game along with one of my best bets of the week: Raiders vs. Chiefs. You can find all of my best bets of the week here.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread & Best Bets
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Raiders at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Raiders at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Chiefs -7
- Over/Under: 51
- Moneyline: Chiefs -330, Raiders +275
Raiders at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Chiefs – 79% bets, 81% money
- Over/Under: Over – 74% bets, 94% money
- Moneyline: Chiefs – 53% bets, 94% money
Raiders at Chiefs: Injuries
Raiders: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Anthony Averett | CB | IR |
| Jordan Jenkins | DE | IR |
| Micah Kiser | LB | IR |
| Sincere McCormick | RB | IR |
| Brandon Parker | T | IR |
| DJ Turner | WR | IR |
Chiefs: Week 5 Injury Report
No injury report as of writing.
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | IR |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR |
| Lucas Niang | OL | PUP |
| Jerrion Ealy | WR/RB | Suspended |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended |
Raiders at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Chiefs Trends
- HC Andy Reid: 33-21-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) in division (with Chiefs)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-9-1 ATS (17.6% ROI) in primetime (including playoffs)
Raiders at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.018 | 12 | 0.001 | 13 | 1 |
| Total SR | 44.5% | 16 | 47.0% | 27 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -6.0% | 20 | 2.0% | 14 | -6 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.039 | 16 | 0.038 | 15 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.4% | 15 | 48.7% | 25 | 10 |
| Pass DVOA | 1.0% | 21 | 13.5% | 21 | 0 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 19 | 7.2% | 11 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 14 | -0.101 | 11 | -3 |
| Rush SR | 40.7% | 15 | 42.5% | 21 | 6 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.8% | 13 | -22.8% | 5 | -8 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.19 | 2 | 3.82 | 5 | 3 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 12 | 5 | 8 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 24 | 10 | 24 | 20 | 10 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.211 | 1 | 0.021 | 17 | 16 |
| Total SR | 50.4% | 1 | 44.5% | 19 | 18 |
| Total DVOA | 17.6% | 5 | 5.0% | 20 | 15 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.32 | 1 | 0.159 | 23 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 54.4% | 2 | 45.6% | 19 | 17 |
| Pass DVOA | 35.0% | 7 | 15.0% | 22 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.1% | 3 | 5.2% | 28 | 25 |
| Rush EPA | 0.018 | 7 | -0.210 | 6 | -1 |
| Rush SR | 43.3% | 12 | 42.7% | 22 | 10 |
| Rush DVOA | -6.5% | 17 | -7.9% | 16 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.67 | 10 | 4.08 | 9 | -1 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 6 | 5.8 | 21 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 32.3 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
Raiders at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.076 | 16 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 20 |
| QBR | 55.2 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 17 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.3
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.197 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.5 | 3 |
| QBR | 82.3 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 4.5 | 2 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.1
Key Matchup: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense
For a team to cover a big spread, it usually needs to be able to move the ball through the air so that it can score a lot of points quickly. And with QB Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs can do that. Even without WR Tyreek Hill, they’re top-eight in all the key pass efficiency metrics this year — and the Raiders defense very much isn’t.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback EPA | 0.32 | 1 | 0.159 | 23 | 22 |
| Dropback SR | 54.4% | 2 | 45.6% | 19 | 17 |
| Pass DVOA | 35.0% | 7 | 15.0% | 22 | 15 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.1% | 3 | 5.2% | 28 | 25 |
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see Mahomes as having a massive edge over the Raiders defense in general and the secondary in particular.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | LV | 25 | 29 | 23 | 27 |
The Chiefs should be able to score at will.
Best Line: Chiefs -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chiefs -9
Limit: Chiefs -7
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