NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: Titans vs. Commanders (2022)
Below you’ll find my projected spreads for each game along with one of my best bets of the week: Titans vs. Commanders. You can find all of my best bets of the week here.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread & Best Bets
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders
Check out our Titans at Commanders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FedExField
- TV: CBS
Titans at Commanders: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Titans -2.5
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Titans -135, Commanders +115
Titans at Commanders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: Titans – 78% bets, 89% money
- Over/Under: Under – 34% bets, 44% money
- Moneyline: Commanders – 16% bets, 39% money
Titans at Commanders: Injuries
Titans: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Ola Adeniyi | OLB | Neck | DNP |
| Treylon Burks | WR | Toe | DNP |
| Zach Cunningham | ILB | Elbow | DNP |
| Bud Dupree | OLB | Hip | DNP |
| Joe Jones | LB | Knee | DNP |
| Tory Carter | FB | Neck | LP |
| Amani Hooker | S | Concussion | LP |
| Ugo Amadi | SAF | Ankle | FP |
Titans: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Chance Campbell | LB | IR |
| Trenton Cannon | RB | IR |
| Da’Shawn Hand | DE | IR |
| Chris Jackson | DB | IR |
| Jamarco Jones | OL | IR |
| Harold Landry III | OLB | IR |
| Taylor Lewan | T | IR |
| Racey McMath | WR | IR |
| Elijah Molden | CB | IR |
| A.J. Moore Jr | S | IR |
| Monty Rice | LB | IR |
| Caleb Shudak | K | PUP |
Commanders: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Percy Butler | S | Quad | DNP |
| Sam Cosmi | OT | Finger | DNP |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Milo Eifler | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | Illness | DNP |
| Charles Leno Jr. | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| David Mayo | LB | Hamstring | LP |
| William Jackson | CB | Back | FP |
| Daniel Wise | DT | Ankle | FP |
Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Willie Beavers | G | IR |
| Curtis Hodges | TE | IR |
| Phidarian Mathis | DT | IR |
| Chase Roullier | C | IR |
| Wes Schweitzer | G | IR |
| Brian Robinson | RB | NFI |
| Tyler Larsen | C | PUP |
| Chase Young | DE | PUP |
Titans at Commanders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Titans Trends
- HC Mike Vrabel: 15-21-1 ATS (12.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Mike Vrabel: 9-14 ATS (17.8% ROI for faders) following multiple wins in a row
Commanders Trends
- Home Underdogs: 82-47-7 ATS (22.3% ROI) with three-game losing streak
- Home Underdogs: 16-10-1 ATS (18.5% ROI) with 1-3 record in Week 5
Titans at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.033 | 19 | 0.044 | 20 | 1 |
| Total SR | 45.6% | 15 | 40.5% | 5 | -10 |
| Total DVOA | 2.0% | 14 | 8.2% | 24 | 10 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.076 | 12 | 0.202 | 28 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 50.0% | 8 | 45.3% | 17 | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 29.0% | 9 | 27.7% | 30 | 21 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.5% | 18 | 8.2% | 9 | -9 |
| Rush EPA | -0.169 | 26 | -0.222 | 4 | -22 |
| Rush SR | 40.0% | 17 | 32.3% | 1 | -16 |
| Rush DVOA | -14.6% | 22 | -21.5% | 6 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 18 | 3.94 | 7 | -11 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 19 | 6 | 25 | 6 |
| Points per Game | 18.8 | 21 | 26.8 | 29 | 8 |
Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.104 | 30 | 0.101 | 30 | 0 |
| Total SR | 37.8% | 30 | 43.0% | 14 | -16 |
| Total DVOA | -17.5% | 28 | 7.0% | 21 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.086 | 27 | 0.199 | 27 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 39.6% | 28 | 48.2% | 24 | -4 |
| Pass DVOA | -9.2% | 27 | 22.4% | 26 | -1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.1% | 30 | 6.5% | 15 | -15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.147 | 25 | -0.090 | 14 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 33.3% | 31 | 33.0% | 3 | -28 |
| Rush DVOA | -23.2% | 27 | -19.1% | 8 | -19 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.85 | 26 | 4.18 | 12 | -14 |
| Yards per Play | 4.6 | 32 | 6.3 | 30 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 18.3 | 25 | 25.3 | 25 | 0 |
Titans at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Ryan Tannehill
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.094 | 11 |
| AY/A | 7.4 | 13 |
| QBR | 47.8 | 18 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.4 | 19 |
Career: Ryan Tannehill
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: -4.5
2022: Carson Wentz
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.01 | 28 |
| AY/A | 5.6 | 28 |
| QBR | 35.7 | 25 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.4 | 29 |
Career: Carson Wentz
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -5.9
Key Matchup: Commanders Defensive Line vs. Titans Offensive Line
Even without EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP), the Commanders defense has opened the season No. 9 in adjusted sack rate (8.2%) and top-eight in every key rush efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.222 (No. 4)
- Rush SR: 32.3% (No. 1)
- Rush DVOA: -21.5% (No. 6)
- Adj. Line Yards: 3.94 (No. 7)
Compare that to the Titans offense, which is not even average in adjusted sack rate or any rushing efficiency metric.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, we see the Commanders defensive line as having a significant edge over the Titans offensive line.
| Rank | Defensive Line | Opp OL | OL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | WAS | TEN | 27 | 13 |
For the Titans, QB Carson Wentz could be under pressure for much of the game and RB Derrick Henry might struggle to find open running lanes.
In the preseason market, this number was Commanders -0.5, and my projection is still fairly close to that number. They shouldn’t be favored, but they also shouldn’t be dogs of almost a field goal.
Best Line: Commanders +2.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Commanders +3 (-115)
Personal Projection: Commanders +0.25
Limit: Commanders +2
Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
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