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NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks: Jaguars vs. Bills (London)

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The Bills made a statement with a sizable victory over the white-hot Dolphins last week, and the Jaguars convincingly defeated the Falcons in London last week. Buffalo is favored despite Jacksonville being acclimated to the timezone difference after playing abroad last week. The game’s moneyline for one team is an appealing leg of the following same-game parlay (SGP), and the starting running backs round out a three-leg SGP with eye-catching props.

Sunday Night Football’s Best Same Game Parlay Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jaguars at Bills SGP

  • Leg 1: Bills Moneyline (-238)
  • Leg 2: Travis Etienne Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
  • Leg 3: James Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (+100)

The Bills have been arguably the best team in the NFL this year, even though they lost their season opener. According to FTN Fantasy, the Bills are first in total Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), third in offensive DVOA and second in defense DVOA. Furthermore, per Pro-Football-Reference, Buffalo has the best point differential (+84) in the NFL this year.

Conversely, the Jaguars are 15th in total DVOA, 17th in offense DVOA and 11th in defense DVOA. They also have a negative point differential, scoring two points fewer than their opponents in 2023.

The Bills might not come out of the gate hot while pushing through jetlag, but they’ve been much better than the Jaguars on offense and defense this year. So, instead of laying the points, taking the moneyline gives some wiggle room for Buffalo to start slowly but earn the win.

If the Bills win, the game script will likely be negative at some point for the Jaguars and push them to air it out. Travis Etienne’s receiving potential would benefit from a negative game script for Jacksonville. The speedy back is Jacksonville’s primary pass-catching back this season. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s run 108 routes versus 32 for Jacksonville’s other running backs this year.

Etienne has an underwhelming 11.0% target share but produced 3.5 receptions per game and 24.0 receiving yards per game. He’s exceeded 21.5 receiving yards twice this season, with a median of 22.0 receiving yards.

The matchup is also excellent for Etienne’s receiving potential. According to The 33rd Team, Buffalo’s allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game (49.8) to running backs this season. So, Etienne should go over his modest line of 21.5 receiving yards in this contest.

Even with the Bills favored, James Cook can exceed his receptions prop since the Bills have a pass-happy offense. First, according to the nfelo app, Buffalo has the eighth-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (2.5%). Second, per RotoViz’s pace app, the Bills are tied for the fifth-highest pass rate (62%) in neutral game scripts. Additionally, they have a 52% pass rate when leading by at least three points this season.

Cook is a meaningful contributor to Buffalo’s passing attack. He’s run the most routes (76) among Bills’ running backs, albeit with Latavius Murray siphoning 44 and Damien Harris running 11. The second-year running back’s 10.4% target share is underwhelming. However, his 17.1% target per route run rate is more impressive.

He’s parlayed his usage into 2.8 receptions per game with a median of 3.0, exceeding 2.5 receptions twice in 2023. Cook’s matchup also bolsters the case for his over. The Jaguars have coughed up 6.0 receptions per game to running backs this year. As a result, FantasyPros projects Cook for 2.8 receptions.

Parlay Odds: +405

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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