NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday)
Each week, I’ll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots -3.5 Total 45.5
- Patriots -3.5
- Jared Goff under 237.5 passing yards
- Jared Goff to throw an interception
- Odds: +596
As you can tell, I am fading Jared Goff outdoors against Bill Belichick. Yes, we don’t know who will be under center for New England, but it really might not matter that much. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to gash this porous Lions defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills -14, Total 46
- Under 46
- Kenny Pickett under 203.5 passing yards
- Stefon Diggs anytime TD
- Odds: +567
High winds are expected in Buffalo Sunday, and that has me honing in on this total. Pittsburgh’s offense could struggle mightily in Kenny Pickett’s first career start. Meanwhile, Buffalo may just look to dominate early then get out as they look ahead to a huge showdown with Kansas City next week.
Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets, Total 45.5
- Dolphins -3
- Zach Wilson to throw an INT
- Breece Hall under 48.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +427
The Dolphins are 10-2 against the Jets since 2016, including two straight wins at MetLife Stadium. Zach Wilson earns credit for leading last week’s rally, but he still struggles to make good decisions. Hall has only eclipsed this rushing total once all season.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.5, Total 46.5
- Buccaneers -9.5
- Tom Brady over 2 TDs
- Chris Godwin over 49.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +553
This is a smash spot for the Buccaneers, who finally looked like their old selves offensively last week. Brady should dominate this Falcons secondary, and I think Godwin is in store for a big game after getting back on the field last week.
Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints -5.5, Total 46
- Seahawks +5.5
- Alvin Kamara over 26.5 receiving yards
- Taysom Hill anytime TD scorer
- Odds: +1002
The Saints are hosting Seattle after returning from London, a spot that’s been difficult for favorites previously. Seattle should be able to stay within this number as the Saints could come out sleepy. Jameis Winston likely won’t suit up, which means Andy Dalton will be back under center. I think he’ll be more likely to check the ball down to Kamara in the passing game. Lastly, I have a feeling Hill will crack the end zone against this weak Seahawks D.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars -7, Total 43.5
- Texans +7
- Christian Kirk over 66.5 receiving yards
- Dameon Pierce over 65.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +575
The Jaguars may be a vastly improved team, but I’m not sure they’re worthy of laying a touchdown in a divisional game. The Texans are winless, but scrappy as big dogs. Kirk is an outstanding zone beating receiver, and I think he’ll have a big day against Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2 defense. Lastly, the Eagles may have exposed a weakness with Jacksonville’s run defense, so I’ll take Pierce to go over his prop.
Tennessee Titans -2.5 at Washington Commanders, Total 43
- Commanders +2.5
- Derrick Henry under 86.5 rushing yards
- Carson Wentz to throw an INT
- Odds: +467
This is gross, but this is a good spot to sell high on Tennessee and buy low on Washington. The Commanders actually rank 6th in rush defense DVOA, which is ideal against Henry and the run heavy Titans. The way to beat Washington is through the air, but I don’t think Ryan Tannehill can do that with this group of weapons. Lastly, it’s Carson Wentz, he’s more likely than not to throw a pick.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings -7.5, Total 44
- Bears +7.5
- Khalil Herbert over 31.5 rushing yards
- Cole Kmet under 27.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +528
The Vikings are also coming off a London game, and they’re giving too many points against a division rival. The Bears are ultra conservative, but they should find success on the ground against a Vikings defense that ranks 27th in rush defense DVOA. David Montgomery logged a practice Thursday, but even if he plays I doubt it’ll be a full workload. Lastly, Cole Kmet has five receptions this season. He barely exists.
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 at Cleveland Browns, Total 47.5
- Browns +114
- Justin Herbert to throw an INT
- Odds: +323
The Browns are my favorite upset pick of the week. They should get healthier defensively with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. And those two should feast against Los Angeles’ offensive line and could result in Herbert making a mistake.
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 at Carolina Panthers, Total 39
- Under 39
- Baker Mayfield to throw an INT
- Christian McCaffrey under 52.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +502
This game is absolutely disgusting, and defenses should reign supreme. San Francisco is the top-ranked defense in DVOA, while Carolina is 12th. With Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo under center, expect a lot of running and a fast running clock. Oh, and Mayfield will surely make a mistake or two against this 49ers defense.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams -5, Total 43
- Rams -5
- Ezekiel Elliott under 46.5 rushing yards
- Matthew Stafford to throw an INT
- Odds: +511
I’m believing in the Rams to bounce back here and feel the Cooper Rush love has gone too far. This team was getting a touchdown a few weeks ago against Cincinnati at home. Now they’re only 5-point dogs on the road against the defending champs? The key will be bottling up Dallas’ running game, which L.A. should do as they rank third in rush defense DVOA. Stafford has been an interception machine lately, and he could definitely throw one against this talented Cowboys defense.
Philadelphia Eagles -5 at Arizona Cardinals, Total 48.5
- Cardinals +5
- Dallas Goedert over 3.5 receptions
- Odds: +213
I don’t like much in this game, but think this spread is just a little inflated. I do think Goedert could have a big game, however. The Cardinals are horrible against tight ends, and Goedert has at least three receptions in every game this season.
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