NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Picks & Best Player Prop Bets: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Welcome to the ultimate Week 5 NFL sports betting breakdown from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to navigating every twist and turn on the Week 5 NFL slate. All eyes are on the highly anticipated NFC South showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. This matchup features the division-leading Buccaneers (3-1) facing the Falcons (2-2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you build the perfect single-game parlay to jumpstart your weekend. This is just a preview of what's in store when the FULL BettingPros Week 5 Primer drops later this week. Get ready to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Thursday Night Football: Falcons vs. Buccaneers!
Thursday Night Football Betting Primer
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sides:
- The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 8-4 as home favorites on the money line.
- The Falcons are 6-13-2 ATS since the start of 2023. Better at home, finishing at 6-5 straight up.
- However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons' last 16 games.
- Kirk Cousins as a favorite ATS (47%)
- The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as favorites against NFC opponents.
- The Falcons have scored first in each of their last five games.
- The Buccaneers have scored last in each of their last seven road games.
- The Buccaneers have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Buccaneers have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
- Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their nine games.
- The Underdogs have won seven of the last 11 Buccaneers' games.
- The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
Totals:
- Atlanta is 1-2 towards the over this season at home, averaging 39 points per game.
- Each of the Falcons’ last seven Thursday games has gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Falcons are 1-3 O/U this season.
- Four of the Falcons’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Tampa Bay is 2-2 O/U this season (0-1 on the road). On defense, they allow just 19.5 points per game (9th).
Overall:
When I first saw the Week 5 betting lines, my attention was immediately drawn toward Tampa Bay on Thursday night. I follow these trends closely and knew the numbers would be very pro-Bucs for two reasons.
The Buccaneers have won six of their last seven games as underdogs. The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield (1-0 this season).
Mayfield as road underdog is exactly where you want to place your money. He's 53% ATS in his career as an underdog.
The market agreed the Bucs were the side to take, as the line moved from ATL -3 to ATL -1.5 since opening.
The Falcons’ defense still cannot generate any pressure, making life miserable for their defense. Per Next Gen Stats, the Falcons have generated a league-low 22.4% pressure rate this season, the only defense under 24%.
Mayfield boasts the fourth-highest passer rating in a clean pocket this season. The Buccaneers quarterback also has produced the fourth-highest success rate on clean dropbacks (60.6%). The Bucs should be able to move the ball efficiently through the air against Atlanta.
I can't say the same for the Falcons offense against Tampa Bay.
The blitz-heavy Buccaneers aren't an ideal spot in Week 5. In Week 4, nearly all of Kirk Cousins's passing production came when the Saints did not blitz, which accounted for 208 of his 238 total passing yards. Cousins averaged 8.7 yards per attempt against four or fewer pass rushers per Next Gen Stats compared to 2.7 against the blitz. Expect Todd Bowles to bring the HEAT on Thursday night. Bijan Robinson better be ready for those check-down passes.
His line is listed at 3.5 receptions, plus money toward the over. Child, please. He’s already gone over in 3/4 this season. During the year, Tampa Bay ranks second in receptions, second in yards, and third in targets to running backs.
Cousins has been bad against the blitz all season, completing just 48.5% of passes (3rd-lowest in NFL).
Atlanta's only hope offensively is with quick passes and their run game. After being extremely run-heavy the first three weeks of the season, Atlanta posted a +7% pass rate over expectation against the Saints.
Again, I am expecting a lot of RB targets in this contest. And there's a case to be made that Atlanta could have some success rushing the ball behind their two-headed monster with Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Robinson has popped on the injury report with a hamstring, so monitor his status before Thursday.
The Buccaneers' run defense has allowed 2.4 yards before contact per carry this season, the second-most in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Now, this metric is a bit noisy, given that Vita Vea has missed some time. But when he is healthy, there's no debating that the Buccaneers’ defense is significantly better against the run. However, the overcommitment to stopping the run can lead to explosive rushes (boom-or-bust).
Regardless, the Falcons must do something to take the heat off an immobile Cousins against Bowles' blitz. Ground and pound/checkdowns galore.
However, it's not enough for me to go back to Atlanta, even at home. Give me the Buccaneers to come away with the road upset on Thursday Night Football.
The total is 43.5, which is right in line with the BettingPros projections. But we always lean toward the under on prime-time divisional matchups, especially between two teams that have trended toward the under. These two teams are a combined 27-17 (61%) toward the under.
Props:
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tyler Allgeier has recorded 40+ rushing yards in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games against NFC South opponents. Allgeier has also gone over his rushing prop in three straight games.
Mike Evans has recorded 75+ receiving yards in four of his last five appearances against the Falcons.
Per Next Gen Stats, Bucky Irving played a career-high 40.5% of offensive snaps in Week 4 (White season-low 59.5%) against the Eagles.
Irving has generated +11 rushing yards over expected on 35 carries this season (203 yards, TD), while White has recorded -36 RYOE on 41 carries (115 yards). White has generated -176 RYOE since entering the NFL in 2022, the fewest in the league. The Buccaneers offensive line has struggled to generate open looks for their running game, allowing ball carriers to be contacted behind the line of scrimmage on designed runs at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL (51.2%). Buccaneers rushers have averaged just 0.6 yards before contact per carry this season, and they have been stuffed for zero or negative gain on 28.0% of designed runs, the second-highest rate in the league.
Rachaad White burned me last week with a couple of big rushes, but his sample size as an inefficient rusher (along with Irving’s emergence) has me going right back to the under on his rushing yards prop.
Robinson's 359 yards from scrimmage are the second-most of any player this season, with one or fewer touchdowns scored this season. He scored last week, but it was wiped out due to a penalty. Regression is coming for B-Rob. But given his injury and the increased usage of Allgeier in the red zone, I think anytime TD on Allgeier at +210 is a strong bet.
As for a longer shot anytime TD scorer, you want to look at the potential Buccaneers' No. 3 pass-catcher. Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, and Kameron Johnson should see more opportunities. The move is to go straight to the tight end, with him likely garnering red-zone looks. Six-plus catches in back-to-back games and +370 for an anytime TD for the Buccaneers starting tight end that never comes off the field.
The trends and spread suggest the Falcons draw first blood. Both Falcons RBs are very much in play for the first TD score.
My Picks