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NFL Week 5 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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With a solid 2-1 Week 4, we turn our attention to a few interesting matchups this weekend where you can take advantage of the house by backing the under in games with rookie starting quarterbacks or former backups-turned-starter.
In all these Week 5 games, the unders look tasty. Don’t pass up these golden opportunities to add to your profit margins for the year. Let’s get right to it.

Week 5 Totals Picks

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts – O/U 42.5 

We hit the under in the Titans matchup with the Bengals last week, and we’re sticking with Tennessee again this week when they travel to Indianapolis to face Anthony Richardson and the Colts. All the talk leading up to this game will surround the return of running back Jonathan Taylor. I’m not buying into the hype, though. Taylor will need some time to knock off some of the rust, and he has never been on the field with his rookie quarterback prior to Wednesday. They’ll need time to get into a rhythm on offense.

The Titans love to grind it out behind running back Derrick Henry on offense, but the all-everything back is nursing a toe injury and only has two rushing touchdowns so far this season. Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game and like to run the ball. The under has hit in three of the last four in this series, and I expect that to continue.

The Pick: Under 42.5 (-104)

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders – O/U 44.5

Our Lee Corso “not so fast, my friend” pick last week was the only one that didn’t hit. Let’s see if we can change that this week, as the Raiders host Green Bay on Monday night. These two teams have played four times since 2007. The over has hit every single time. Why wouldn’t it hit again, you ask?

Let’s take a look at what’s changed, that would point us in the other direction. For starters, the Packers won’t have someone named Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre calling the signals. This game won’t be in California either since the Raiders have moved to Sin City. Both these teams are in the bottom five in total yards per game on offense. The Raiders could also start a rookie quarterback (Aidan O’Connell) who was sacked seven times last week in a 24-17 loss to the Chargers. I could go on, but you get the point… which there won’t be a lot of in this game.

The Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals – O/U 44.5

Joe Burrow is clearly not healthy. The calf injury that he re-aggravated two weeks ago has turned Burrow into a below-average passer, and we all see it. At what point do the Bengals admit it and sit the superstar quarterback? In four games, Burrow is completing just 57.6% of his passes and has as many touchdown passes as he does interceptions (two). That has resulted in Cincinnati starting the season 1-3 and in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in three years.

Arizona has quarterback issues of its own. Injured starter Kyler Murray was not activated off the PUP list on Monday when he was first eligible. The 26-year-old hasn’t even practiced since tearing his ACL late last year against New England. Current starter Joshua Dobbs came over from the Browns in an offseason trade. While he’s been efficient since, completing nearly 71% of his passes, the former backup is averaging just over 200 yards per game through the air. Neither of these offenses instill any confidence, and I don’t expect to see them lighting up the scoreboard Sunday.

The Pick: Under 44.5 (-106)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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