NFL Week 5 Touchdown Scorer Odds & Picks: Jaguars vs. Bills (London)

by Mike Fanelli |
Oct 07, 2023

We have a special matchup on Sunday morning between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills in London, England. Millions of dollars will get bet on this game.

However, which touchdown prop bets should you bet? Let's take a look.

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Jaguars vs. Bills TD Scorer Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jacksonville Jaguars First TD Scorer: Calvin Ridley (+400)

When the Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley at last year's trade deadline, everyone had high hopes for Jacksonville's offense in 2023. Unfortunately, it hasn't gotten off to the best start. The Jaguars have averaged only 20 points per game this season, the 13th-fewest in the NFL. However, that hasn't impacted Ridley. The former Alabama star leads the team in receiving touchdowns (two), with both scores coming as the first Jacksonville touchdown of the game.

Last week, Ridley scored the first Jaguars touchdown in the win against the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Bills have played excellent football since Week 1, winning by an average margin of 30 points per game. Yet, they've struggled with star wide receivers early in the contest. Garrett Wilson in Week 1 and Davante Adams in Week 2 scored the first touchdown for their team in the games against Buffalo. With Tre'Davious White out for the year, expect Ridley to take advantage of his replacement.

Buffalo Bills First TD Scorer: Gabe Davis (+500)

The Bills have been on fire since Week 1, averaging 38.3 points and 4.7 touchdowns per game on offense. Furthermore, nearly 60% of the 14 offensive touchdowns since Week 1 scored by Buffalo have been passing scores by Josh Allen. His favorite target early in the game during those three weeks? Gabe Davis. The fourth-year receiver scored the first Bills touchdown in Week 3 and Week 4.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville has an emerging star cornerback in Tyson Campbell. However, that hasn't kept the Jaguars from struggling against the pass early in games. Over the past three weeks, the first touchdown scored by the opposing team has been by a wide receiver twice, including Drake London last week. The Bills' offense is clicking, and Davis has a critical role early in games. Don't be shocked when he has his third straight game scoring the team's first touchdown.

Anytime TD Scorer: Stefon Diggs (-140)

While Davis has been the early touchdown producer for Buffalo, Diggs is still the No. 1 wide receiver in this offense. The superstar wide receiver leads the team with four receiving touchdowns this season. Furthermore, he and Tyreek Hill tie for the NFL high in receiving scores. Last week, the former Maryland star was unstoppable, totaling three touchdowns on six receptions against the Miami Dolphins.

The Jaguars only gave up one touchdown last week against the Falcons in London. However, facing the Atlanta offense is a breeze compared to the Buffalo offense. Jacksonville has surrendered four receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, the 12th-most in the NFL. More importantly, they have faced several teams with a limited wide receiver unit, including the Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs and Falcons. Diggs is more likely to score twice in this game than not find the end zone at all.

Anytime TD Scorer: Travis Etienne Jr. (+130)

One of the top questions surrounding the Jaguars entering the year was what would the backfield split look like. While Tank Bigsby leads the team with two rushing touchdowns, the rookie running back has only 12 rushing attempts, ranking third on the team behind Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence. Etienne has been the featured running back for Jacksonville, accounting for nearly 80% of the backfield touches this season.

Despite not having the goal-line role, the former Clemson star still has found the end zone this season. Buffalo struggled to slow down De'Von Achane in Week 4, giving up 101 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only eight rushing attempts. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Bills have surrendered 4.73 yards after contact per rushing attempt this season, the most in the NFL. They have also given up the second-highest explosive run rate in the league (9.3%). All it takes is one missed tackle for Etienne to make a house call on Sunday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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