NFL Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).
Below are my year-to-date results (assumes one unit per prop):
| Week | Units | ROI | Record |
| YTD | +6.4 | 25.7% | 9 – 16 |
| 4 | +0.6 | 5.2% | 5 – 7 |
| 5 | +5.8 | 44.6% | 4 – 9 |
NFL Week 6 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
- Alexander Mattison
- Anytime TD Odds: +330 (FanDuel)
Mattison continues to be involved in the Vikings offense behind Dalvin Cook, playing 43% of the snaps last week. He had three red zone opportunities as well, although Cook had all three carries inside the 5-yard line. He was held out of the end zone last week, but scored each of the prior two weeks. Miami will start seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson, so I anticipate the Vikings being able to control the ball. With the steadily increasing playing time and increased opportunity, I think +330 is appealing for Mattison.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Anytime TD Odds: +105 (DraftKings)
The Browns come off a loss to the Chargers where they gave up 225 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Chargers backfield. Prior to that, they gave up 199 yards and two touchdowns to the Falcons backfield. Enter Rhamondre Stevenson, who should now have sole possession of this backfield (assuming Damien Harris is ruled out). Stevenson played 90% of the snaps and totaled 161 yards on 25 carries against the Lions last week. It would be hard to imagine Stevenson being held out of the end zone again with that workload and the Browns run defense struggles.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
- George Kittle
- Anytime TD Odds: +180 (FanDuel)
It looked like Kittle was in for his first big game of the season last week in Carolina. He started the first drive off with two catches for 25 yards and finished the half with five catches and 47 yards. With the game in hand, Kittle was held off the stat sheet in the second half, but I think there was enough evidence that Kittle is still a big part of their passing offense. The 49ers have a 25-point implied team total so they should find the end zone a few times.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Anytime TD Odds: -105 (FanDuel)
After a 10-129-1 stat line Week 1, Chase has been relatively disappointing on the stat sheet for a player of his caliber. He still has two touchdowns on the year and is averaging about 10 targets a game. With Tee Higgins not practicing as of Thursday, Chase should be even more involved in the Bengals game plan this week. Burrow continues to look his way in the red zone, where Chase has 19 targets, per PFF. The matchup with the Saints secondary is not imposing, especially with Marshon Lattimore ruled out. They gave up close to 200 yards and 3 TDs to Metcalf and Lockett combined last week.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
- AJ Dillon
- Anytime TD Odds: +130 (FanDuel)
This is a bit of speculation that the Packers will return to the ground game after unsuccessfully passing the ball twice with two yards to gain last week to lose the game. Dillon and Jones have the two lowest odds listed to score a touchdown this week and it wouldn’t be surprising if both find the end zone in a bounce-back spot against the Jets at home. The Packers are 7.5-point favorites, which helps the cause to get Dillon more involved this week after a season-low 6 touches. Prior to last week, Dillon was averaging 16.5 touches per game and totaled 10 opportunities in the red zone.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
- Travis Etienne
- Anytime TD Odds: +230 (FanDuel)
Travis Etienne’s usage continues to increase each week. Last week, he had the best game of his young career totaling 114 yards, with most of his damage coming in the first half. For some reason, Doug Pederson didn’t keep Etienne involved in the second half, despite him averaging nearly 10 yards per touch. Pederson took ownership post-game, saying he needed to keep Etienne involved. I think this week we will see the opportunities increase again for a player on the rise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Mike Evans
- Anytime TD Odds: -105 (DraftKings)
The Steelers have given up nine TDs to opposing wide receivers through five weeks, including four TDs last week to the Bills WRs. Evans has nine red zone targets in the last two games returning from his one-game suspension. The Bucs implied team total of 26.75 is only behind the Bills this week. Evans should have plenty of opportunity to add to the WR TD total given up by the Steelers secondary.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
- Lamar Jackson
- Anytime TD Odds: +130 (DraftKings)
Lamar Jackson is averaging over 10 rushing attempts over the last four weeks. He totaled a TD and over 100 rushing in two of those four games. I think he has a good opportunity to keep this trend going against a Giants defense that gave up 52 yards on 7 carries to the one other mobile QB they have faced this year, Justin Fields. Jackson has shown to take it himself inside the 5-yard line this year with three carries.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
- D.K. Metcalf
- Anytime TD Odds: +140 (DraftKings)
Metcalf is averaging 10 targets a game the last three weeks and has hauled in two TDs during that span. Geno Smith continues to look his way in the red zone. Metcalf has seven end zone targets on the season, trailing only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. This is on top of his big-play ability with over 13 yards per reception this season. This matchup is the second-highest total on the slate at 50.5.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
- Tyler Higbee
- Anytime TD Odds: +190 (FanDuel)
Outside of Cooper Kupp, Higbee is the top target earner on the Rams offense. He has more targets than wide receivers Ben Skowronek and Allen Robinson have combined. Stafford also has looked his way in the red zone, where he has been targeted 7 times this year. Higbee has yet to find the end zone this year, but I think that will change this week if his usage keeps up. Carolina has given up a TD to a TE in two of five games this season.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Jerick McKinnon
- Anytime TD Odds: +475 (DraftKings)
This game has the highest total on the slate at 54 points. Everyone remembers last year’s thrilling 42-36 final in the divisional round, which came down to whoever possessed the ball last. That said, I’m willing to risk the chance to grab players at longer odds with the expectation there will be plenty of touchdowns. McKinnon caught my eye after playing 53% of the snaps last week. He has a total of nine red zone opportunities in the last four weeks and has three carries inside the 5-yard line. +475 seems too long for a player who had 10 touches last week for the Chiefs.
(Data per PFF)
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