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NFL Week 6 Betting Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (2024)

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Introducing the Week 6 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm thrilled to be your guide as we delve into each game on the NFL slate. Here, you'll find expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and enticing player props that could pave the way for impressive single-game parlays.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for all remaining Week 6 games on Sunday. Note that the Sunday night and Monday night games will be getting their own dedicated articles.

NFL Week 6 Betting Primer

Top Favorites:

  • Titans -2.5
  • Steelers -3
  • Lions -3

Top Underdogs:

  • Cardinals +5.5
  • Patriots +7
  • Panthers +6.5

Top Totals:

  • ARI/GB under 47
  • CLE/PHI over 42.5
  • BAL/WAS under 51.5
  • ATL/CAR under 47.0
  • DET/DAL under 52.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Sides:

  • The Buccaneers have scored last in each of their last seven road games.
  • The Buccaneers have won six of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in five of their last eight games.
  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last four games following a loss.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS as a home favorite in their nine games.
  • The underdogs have won seven of the last 12 Buccaneers' games.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Buccaneers and Saints.
  • The Buccaneers are 9-3 ATS on the road under Baker Mayfield.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS in the division
  • The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as road underdogs.
  • Rookie QBs are a combined 12-3 ATS this season.

Totals:

  • Each of the last five games between the Buccaneers and Saints has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-2 O/U this season (1-1 on the road).
  • On defense, they allowed just 19.5 points per game (9th) before the Falcons' eruption game in Week 5.
  • Five of the Saints' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line
  • Games have averaged 42 points at home in New Orleans this season (1-1 O/U).
  • The Saints have the best red-zone defense in the NFL (25% conversion rate). The Buccaneers rank 12th.

Overall:

Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler will get the call for the Saints, with Derek Carr projected to miss a few games due to an oblique injury.

Here's a brief synopsis of Rattler courtesy of my FantasyPros notes.

"Once deemed as a potential No.1 overall pick after the 2020 college football season, Spencer Rattler’s had a tumultuous college career to get to this point in his football career. At 20 years old, Rattler was PFF’s No.1-graded quarterback in the country. He was the Heisman favorite heading into 2021, but he was benched for Caleb Williams. He then transferred to South Carolina in 2022 where he started for two seasons. In 2023, he finished second in the class in both catchable throw percentage and on-target throw rate.

Still, hoping that Rattler turns back into what excited CFB fans in 2020 – for those looking for a fantasy sleeper – might be out of luck. He’s not a rushing threat due to a lack of athletic acumen. And his arm talent will only get him so far. But if the Saints get more inconsistent play from Derek Carr, they could quickly turn to their 2024 5th-round pick. After the 2024 season, Carr’s dead cap falls to $17 million versus his $45 million salary cap hit. If he underwhelms again in 2024, he could be on the way out of New Orleans."

The main takeaway we can apply for this matchup is that he throws a "catchable" ball, but he might struggle behind the Saints reeling offensive line that has dealt with recent injuries.

Todd Bowles is going to throw every single type of unique blitz at Rattler he can think of. But I'm not convinced that Bowles' blitzes will completely “rattle” Rattler. In his final year of college, he had the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy-play rate against the blitz. Two of the quarterbacks who performed better were Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Both have avoided massive turnovers against the blitz in their brief NFL stints.

The lines have moved since opening, and I'm glad I jumped on the Buccaneers before Monday night, as I discussed in the early lookahead lines show for Week 6. Don't miss it, folks!

After Tampa was catching anywhere between 1.5-2.5 points, the line jumped to TB -3.5 on the road. The total has only moved 1 point from 41 to 42.

On a short week with Tampa Bay benefiting from extra time to prepare - this is a tall task for Saints head coach Dennis Allen to inspire an unprecedented home upset with a rookie quarterback.

Part of the problem is that even Rattler surprises in his debut, it won't matter if the Saints can’t stop the red-hot Buccaneers offense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Baker Mayfield has recorded the 3rd-quickest average time to throw (2.43 seconds) and the 2nd-lowest pressure rate faced (27.1%) against the blitz this season. Luckily for the Saints, they've been great against the short-passing game - second-lowest EPA/play allowed.

Given that's been Mayfield's bread-and-butter, we could see his production return to Earth in this matchup. We know that Marshon Lattimore can slow down Mike Evans, leaving Mayfield with fewer options.

This game might become much more of a divisional defensive struggle, nothing like what we saw from the Buccaneers last Thursday night. They will be able to mitigate the Saints’ run game. And I'm not convinced that with a rookie QB, New Orleans will get away from their 27th-ranked pass rate over expected offense. They will try to run (and run again) even if it's ineffective. It won't help their offense that Calijah Kancey might return for the Buccaneers' interior. I’d opt for the under on Kamara’s rushing prop at 67.5 yards. He missed it last week, and Kendre Miller is expected to return to the lineup this week.

This game might come down to how well Tampa can run against the Saints’ defense.  Given that the Saints rank 30th in yards allowed before contact, we should see success here for Tampa's ground game. The Chiefs successfully ran the ball against New Orleans on Monday night, and I'm sure Buccaneers OC Liam Cohen took notice. Rachaad White is dealing with a foot injury, setting up Bucky Irving for a big workload.

Like I said at the top, I've already got a Buccaneers +2.5 ticket that I am sticking with. But if I am betting now, it's toward the under at 42. I've got hesitations about both passing games so that we might see more rushing than anything else. These defenses also tighten up in the red zone, limiting the high-end projection on this game total.

Both TB-NO games finished with under 36 points in 2023. I think we get a third straight under.

Props:

Get your popcorn ready for Mike Evans versus Marshon Lattimore, Part 13. According to Next Gen Stats, Lattimore and Evans have faced each other in 12 games between the regular season and playoffs.

Lattimore lined up against Evans on 265 of his 432 routes (61.3%), the most routes any defender has lined up against any individual receiver since 2017. Lattimore lined up against Evans on at least 65% of his routes in seven of those 12 games, though he did not do so in any of their three most recent meetings dating back to Week 15, 2021. Lattimore has allowed 19 receptions for 302 yards and two touchdowns to Evans on 29 targets faced as the nearest defender while forcing a tight window on 10 of the 29 targets (34.5%). Buccaneers quarterbacks have combined to complete 27 of 44 passes for 426 yards, a touchdown, and six interceptions when targeting Evans vs all other Saints defenders in coverage.

New Orleans’ defense has allowed the fourth-lowest EPA/pass attempt on throws to the perimeter this season. But we have to add more context to these Lattimore vs Evans matchups.

Per FantasyPoints data, Evans ranks sixth in the percentage of routes with multiple steps of separation (6.4%) I think Lattimore should be more concerned about Evans roasting him than vice-versa. Evans’ receiving yard line is at the lowest it’s been all season despite the Saints allowing the five-most comparable WRs to Evans to go over their projected receiving yards total. Fade the noise. Take the over. He’s over this number in three of five games this season.

Given the heat Rattler is expected to see from Bowles, I'd expect the offensive game plan to revolve heavily around Alvin Kamara in the passing game. Tampa Bay ranks third in targets, receptions and yards allowed to RBs.

My Picks:

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers

Sides:

  • Green Bay is 10-7 at home in its last 17 home games, 9-8 ATS, but just 40% ATS over its last 14 home games.
  • GB as a favorite: 7-14-1 ATS
  • The Packers have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
  • The Packers have won each of their last 11 of their last 12 home games following a road win.
  • Since 2023, the Packers have been 11-2 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 10-3 ATS. Green Bay was 4-7 ATS when they allowed more than 23 points on defense.
  • The Cardinals have a 21-point implied team total.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in five of their last six road games.
  • Arizona is 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The underdogs have won five of the Packers’ last six games at Lambeau Field.

Totals:

  • The Packers are 16-8 toward the over since the start of 2023.
  • Ten of the Packers' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • From Week 1-10 of the 2023 season (before Jordan Love took a major step in his progression), the Packers' first half-point totals were 10, 23, 14, 10, 10, 23, 23, 7, 27, 10, 19 and 20. In his first game back from injury, they struggled to score points in the first half.
  • Eight of the Packers' last 10 games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 5.
  • The Packers have scored first in six of their last seven games.
  • The Cardinals have been an under-machine since the start of 2023 on the road (3-6-1).
  • Each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Packers has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams are a combined 6-4 toward the over this season.

Overall:

Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers have recorded the fifth-most rushing yards over expected (+151) thus far this season, with newly acquired running back Josh Jacobs leading the way with 19 missed tackles forced on runs, fifth-most in the NFL.

Opposing offenses have been expected to gain 657 rushing yards against the Cardinals’ defense this season, the 5th-most in the NFL.

The Cardinals defense has also generated pressure on just 25.3% of opposing dropbacks this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

Needless to say, there are multiple ways the Packers offense finds success in Jordan Love's third game back from his injury.

Run or pass, the Packers will be effective against Arizona. But I think they might run the ball more than most will expect. In the last two weeks, the Packers have had -an 11% pass rate over expectation. I liked the under last week because I figured the team would feed Josh Jacobs, and that played a part in the game going under the total (the Dontayvion Wicks drops also helped).

Arizona showed last week that they will not go away quietly. This team under Jonathan Gannon has constantly hung around games as road underdogs, going 5-1 ATS in their last six road contests. Meanwhile, the Packers have been a bit shaky covering home spreads as favorites.

Matchup wise, I think Arizona comes in clean here. Green Bay is bad at defending short passes, so I'd expect Kyler Murray to be efficient passing underneath to his tight end, Trey McBride. James Conner should be able to find some running room. The Packers’ run defense is nothing overly special (9th-worst in EPA/rush attempt faced).

It's a solid spot for the Cardinals offense. But enough to help drive this game over 47 points seems aggressive. If anything, what breaks this game wide open is if Murray scrambles for a big yardage.

Still, I lean on some of the more dominant running games taking center stage than an old-fashioned shootout between Murray and Love. I also can't get it out of mind that the Cardinals’ defense has had some strong moments this season, shutting out both the Lions and 49ers in the second halves of their respective games.

Props:

Kyler Murray has rushed for at least 45 yards in four of five games this season. He has gone OVER his rushing yards prop in all four games the Cardinals have been underdogs this season.

Jayden Reed has over 75 receiving yards in all three games that Jordan Love has started this season. The Cardinals have allowed at least 75 receiving yards to a player in each of the last three games.

My Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 15 of the Colts' last 17 games.
  • The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and 66% ATS as an underdog (1-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Titans have lost eight of their last nine games against AFC South opponents.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games.
  • The Titans are 5-6 at home since the start of 2023.
  • The Titans have covered the spread in six of their last 10 games at Nissan Stadium.

Totals:

  • Six of the last eight Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts’ last eight games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • The Titans are 13-7-1 toward the under in their last 20 games.

Overall:

Anthony Richardson is trending in the right direction to get a start this week after missing last week with an injury. He is off the injury report entirely. But the Colts aren't out of the injury woods just yet. Michael Pittman Jr. has a back injury, although he is now trending towards playing. Jonathan Taylor will miss his second straight game with a high ankle sprain. Josh Downs is dealing with a toe injury but is expected to play. The Colts lost another starting offensive lineman – Will Fries – last week.

Meanwhile, the Titans are presumably very healthy and well-rested coming off a bye week.

We know the Titans historically play much better at home than on the road, and the Colts are a tough bet to place as underdogs (like last week).

In another AFC South road matchup, with Indy catching points, I think we might see a repeat of last week’s outcome.

The Titans defense is vastly superior to the Jaguars. They can stop run – league-high run stuff rate of 25.7% – and limit passing production. Top-five in EPA/pass attempt and yards per pass attempt faced.

I envision this Colts offense struggling.

But I don't think the Titans offense will struggle. Tennessee's run game has been very boom-or-bust. No team has lower rushing yards allowed before contact than Tennessee. That leads to a lot of negative runs or no gains. But when they get through that first line of contact, it's off to the races. Indy ranks fourth in most rushes of 10-plus yards allowed this season.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both explosive rushers who can take advantage in this matchup.

I also think Will Levis will be able to throw on this secondary. They rank 30th in yards per attempt allowed and have allowed the second-most passing yards per game to the perimeter. Tennessee's defense, meanwhile, ranks first in that category.

Give me the Titans to win at home. Given the projected struggles for the Colts’ offense, I also lean toward the under at 43.5.

Props:

Tennessee has been great against the deep ball this season. Per Next Gen Stats, The Titans’ defense has allowed a league-low nine completions of 10+ air yards this season, generating a defensive success rate of 37.5% on such attempts, the fourth-highest in the NFL.

Mentioned already how bad the Colts are against perimeter WRs. The Calvin Ridley "boom" game is coming. Earlier this week, Bengals head coach Brian Callahan said to Ridley, "I need to find ways to get you the ball more." Pitch and catch, folks. The last five most comparable WRs to face the Colts this season have gone OVER their receptions totals per the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. The projections have Ridley for four receptions and 49.3 receiving yards, both well ahead of his line on the sportsbooks.

My Picks:

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles

Sides:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Browns have won eight of their last 12 games as favorites and 9-5 as a favorite.
  • The Browns are 6-8-1 ATS in their last 15 road appearances as underdogs and 4-1 as home underdogs.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games.
  • The Eagles are 10-11 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 3-9 toward the over on the road.
  • The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Eagles have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
  • The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • But at home in their last 20 games - 12-8 ATS as home favorites.

Totals:

  • Six of the Browns' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Browns' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Browns’ last 13 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Browns are 13-9-1 toward the over in their last 22 games.
  • Cleveland has finished under their team total in every game this season.
  • The Eagles are 11-11 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 4-9 toward the over on the road. The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-2 toward the OVER at home since start of 2023

Overall:

It seems like a hefty sum to pay for the Eagles -9.5 at home against the Browns. Philly has not been a good bet ATS dating back to 2023. But it's hard to ignore they are set up super well in this spot, getting all their guys back in the lineup fully healthy between A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson.

I don't envision the Browns road defense forcing much resistance. They've been a bottom-four run defense in EPA/rush attempt faced and haven't been tested by a passing offense with weapons like the Eagles.

The Browns’ offense - if that's what you want to call it - is self-explanatory. Deshaun Watson is taking sacks constantly while making erratic throws on the run. He is going to invite chaos for both the offense and defense. Big plays will happen when Cleveland has the ball.

The only semblance of hope I can see for this Browns offense is on the ground. The Eagles have struggled to wrap up ball carriers this season. Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ defense has missed a tackle on a league-high 16.4% of their attempts for 269 yards lost (3rd-most yards).

The Browns running back room has been tough to tackle this season with both Jerome Ford (22.1%) and D'Onta Foreman (25.0%) forcing missed tackles on over 20% of their touches. Ford is also tied for the 7th-most yards after contact per carry this season with 4.0.

The Eagles’ pass defense should improve as the team gets more accustomed to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. That being said, they have had serious lapses, allowing big plays at critical times for the Falcons and Buccaneers–eighth in yards per attempt faced.

And FWIW, the Eagles’ pass rush has been somewhat non-existent, with the fourth-lowest sack rate. It’s going to look better against the Browns, but Waston might be able to get off some throws downfield to Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, etc, in the meantime.

I can't recommend taking the Eagles -9.5 in good faith, given how careless Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense have been (they have the second-most giveaways). That being said, my days of betting on Deshaun Watson are over.

Therefore, based on the offensive advantages I see on both sides, I'll opt for the over-on-the-game total of 42.5. Browns road games and Eagles home games trend toward overs.

It worked last week betting on the Browns-Commanders over, and Cleveland barely did anything offensively. The over still hit.

Props:

DeVonta Smith has exceeded 5.5 receptions in just seven of his last 17 games played with A.J. Brown dating back to the start of 2023 (29%). This 5.5 line is too high for the Eagles No. 2 wide receiver against the Browns, considering they have allowed the fifth-fewest completions to opposing offenses this season (second-lowest completion rate).

My Picks:

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Sides:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. 1-4 ATS this season.
  • The Texans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites (4-10 ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023).
  • Eleven of their last 13 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Overall, Houston is just 11-11 against the spread over its last 22 games.
  • Houston is 1-4 as road favorites (20%). 4-9-1 ATS as a favorite (31%).
  • The Patriots have lost each of their last nine games against teams with a losing record.
  • The Patriots have lost nine of their last 10 games at Gillette Stadium. Losers of six straight home games.
  • Rookie QBs are a combined 12-3 ATS this season.

Totals:

  • The Texans have gone under in 15 of their last 24 games, which featured them playing many offenses averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
  • Houston is 0-4 O/U this season.
  • Six of the last 10 Patriots' games have gone OVER the projected game total.
  • The Patriots' defense has allowed 300-plus yards in three of five games this season. They had allowed one team to go for 300 yards from Weeks 9-18 last season.
  • New England is 12-10 toward the under in their last 22 games (54%).

Overall:

Jerod Mayo had five weeks of Jacoby Brissett as his team's starting quarterback, and he's seen enough. This year's No. 3 overall pick, Drake Maye, will make his first NFL start at home in Week 6 against the Houston Texans.

Since the announcement, there hasn't been much line movement, with the total (38.5) and spread (HOU -7) staying pat.

And this makes sense, given the supporting cast Maye has offensively. Brissett has been the most pressured quarterback this season, and it's been mostly on the offensive line.

Per Next Gen Stats, Patriots blockers have allowed the highest quarterback pressure rate (48.3%) and unblocked pressure rate (13.5%) this season.

Is this a problem? Yes.

The Texans’ defense has generated a 42.0% pressure rate this season, the highest in the NFL. Danielle Hunter currently leads the NFL with 29 pressures, while Will Anderson is tied for 7th with 23. The Texans have successfully created pressure even without blitzing, generating the highest pressure rate (40.4%) on non-blitzes this season.

I think that Mayo believes that in the face of pressure, Maye can create and do "more" than Brissett. The former UNC quarterback is more athletic and was one of the most underrated rushing quarterbacks coming out of this year's draft class. He averaged nearly 56 yards per game on the ground through his two years as a starter. The rookie will ask to carry the load after drawing the starting nod in New England - for better or worse – amid a lackluster supporting cast.

Simply put, any success the Patriots have on offense will be because of Maye. I think there will be some highs accompanied by many lows.

And although the offensive line is currently horrible, I think in the long-term, there's a small chance it might be decent. LT Vederian Lowe played better last week as did LG Michael Jordan. Mike Onwenu is one staple on the offensive line they have. The main issues are at center and right tackle. Losing center David Andrews for the entire season is brutal for Maye. We've seen veteran centers help young players with checks and adjustments in the past, and it's a shame Maye won't have that all year.

Even with Maye at quarterback, we know the Patriots will still try to run the ball-perhaps with more play-action added to the playbook. I'd expect the offense to keep Maye on the move with bootlegs, etc., to prevent him from being a sitting duck.

Houston's run defense isn't great - fourth-worst in rush/EPA per attempt - so we could see a decent outing from the Rhamondre Stevenson/Antonio Gibson backfield duo, although Stevenson is nursing a calf injury he suffered last week.

As for the Texans offense, they will be without No. 1 WR Nico Collins. This will place more emphasis on Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. I'd expect the Patriots to use Christian Gonzalez on Diggs as much as possible, setting up Dell to post a strong receiving stat line. In 2023, Collins missed one game while Dell was healthy. He had 14 targets in that matchup.

Houston has shown a propensity to pound the rock at a decent clip, and it's been extremely inefficient. It’s the third worst in rushing EPA/attempt but there is an expectation that Joe Mixon will be back this week.

The Texans hardly cover spreads of this magnitude, and Maye throws an unknown element into the equation, backing off anything HOU -7. If anything, I'd back the Patriots at home, catching seven points behind a mobile quarterback.

The Patriots should be 2-0 ATS at home this season after losing two tight contests.

As for the total, my initial lean was on the over on the game total(as crazy as that seems). And it's because I could see turnovers coming in bunches. Based on the pressure rates for the Patriots and Texans, it would make sense to see Houston create more turnovers. They've only generated three turnovers this season, while the Patriots have only turned the ball over four times.

Something has to give.

It's hardly the best bet, but I think in a wacky way of sorts this game goes over 37.5 points. If anything, maybe it's a reason to move away from slamming the under on another Patriots and/or Texans game which has been the move so far this season.

Props:

  • I teased this earlier, but Drake Maye will use his legs A LOT in this matchup. The Texans rank dead last in rushing/EPA per QB scramble this season, allowing nearly 32 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs. This prop is how you make money watching this game.
  • Rookie Ja'Lynn Polk was targeted six times (20% Target share) and caught one pass for 13 yards in Week 5. Polk was HOSED on a fourth-quarter touchdown that would have given the Patriots the go-ahead score. He also led the team in air yards for the second straight week (13 targets in the last two games). Polk continues to string together impressive outings that aren't necessarily being reflected in the box score. The offense situation is bad, but Polk is flashing his talent. He played 100% of the snaps for the Patriots in Week 5. I think we see the rookie-to-rookie chemistry flash between Maye and Polk in Week 6.

My Picks:

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens

Sides:

  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last 11 games. They are 4-0 ATS and straight up in their last four games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.
  • Lamar Jackson is 34-34-0 (50%) ATS as a favorite.
  • Baltimore is 12-5 on the money line as home favorites. But just 7-11 ATS as home favorites.
  • Baltimore is 13-5 ATS on the road in the last two seasons and 9-4 ATS as road favorites.

Totals:

  • Ten of the Commanders' last 13 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-2 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 12-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Ravens have a 29-point implied team total.
  • Most of the 2023 Ravens games that went over came at home (six of their last nine), but they tended to be against better offenses.
  • The Ravens are 4-1 toward the over this season.
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in seven of the last 10 games (eight of the previous 13).
  • Nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Lamar Jackson versus Lamar Jackson 2.0. Get your popcorn ready, folks.

Jayden Daniels and the red-hot Commanders offense are headed to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 7-point underdogs.

It's a large spread, given the hype building around the rookie sensation, but clearly, the market is not overreacting to the Commanders’ offensive achievements. It’s odd because this game is viewed as the “game of the week,” but that’s usually not the case with TD-based spreads.

The Commanders' offense ranks first overall in EPA/play. First in EPA/pass and EPA/run. They can throw it and run it at an elite level.

However, their numbers are slightly boosted by the opponents they have faced-Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, Browns, etc. It's impressive nonetheless from a rookie QB-led offense, but the opponents’ schedule has not gone unnoticed.

However, is this Ravens’ defense built to stop it? Yes and no. Baltimore's defense is great against the run - the fewest rushing yards allowed per game. Given that they have their own mobile quarterback, I'd presume they have the defensive discipline and coaching to combat Daniels's rushing to the greatest extent. They were able to limit Josh Allen's production back in Week 4.

Also, consider that the Commanders' backfield is banged up. Brian Robinson Jr. has been ruled out with a knee injury.

I think we might see a "down" game from Washington's rushing attack, forcing a more traditional dropback passing game from Daniels.

Can he still be effective? Of course. Baltimore ranks second in most passing yards allowed per game this season.

However, the lack of receiver depth behind Terry McLaurin might show up here if they are playing catchup.

Double-digit targets for guys like Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, etc., aren't a recipe for Washington’s success.

As for the Ravens offense, it's another game where they can impose their will in any way. However, the Commanders’ defense has played better in back-to-back weeks against mobile QBs like Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson.

But it's safe to say this Ravens offense is a different animal. Or should I say Big Dog? Derrick Henry is going to have plenty of rushing room in this contest. Per Next Gen Stats, The Commanders have allowed 2.1 yards before contact per carry to running backs this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL. They've also allowed a league-high 23 explosive runs (10+ yards) on just 110 total carries (20.9% explosive run rate, 32nd in the NFL).

From both offensive sides, I think we see the Commanders throw more and the Ravens run.

As I alluded to earlier, the Commanders pass defense might be coming around after two strong games, but the run defense remains abysmal.

Last week I said that the only way CIN-BAL would go under the total would be if Henry just bleeds the clock running the ball. First down after first down, without any game-breaking long runs. I feel the same this week, except I am more confident projecting a run-heavier approach from Baltimore at home.

All in all, I can't back the Ravens at home against the plucky Commanders bunch. Even if it takes a backdoor cover, I can't get past Baltimore's 7-11 ATS record as home favorites. Then again, the public’s perception of this anticipated great game is not reflected in the point spread in my opinion. After initially being on Commanders +7, I think I am just avoiding sides altogether for fear we get a disappointing game where the Ravens just dominate at home.

But I think I like the under on the game total the most. It's still a rookie QB starting on the road in a hostile environment. I think they might become one-dimensional and be unable to showcase their full offensive strengths. Baltimore constantly underwhelms at home, and this run-heavy approach combined with a potential newfound "strong" Commanders pass defense will send this game WAY under 51.5 points.

Nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games after coming off overtime have gone UNDER the total points line.

Props:

Justice Hill has rushed for at least 14.5 rushing in four straight games.

The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most receptions on defense this season. I expect the Commanders to throw in this spot, so I am looking at overs for the two top-receiving targets. Terry McLaurin’s two overs on his receptions props this season (Weeks 2+4) came in contests with Daniels attempting 29 throws. His pass attempts prop line is set at 31.5 attempts. Every QB the Ravens have faced this season has attempted at least 28 passes. The projections love the OVER on TMC, with the number forecasted for 5.6 catches.

Tight end Zach Ertz caught just two of his eight targets (30% Target share) for 10 yards. Ertz was targeted four times in the red zone but only caught one pass, with no touchdowns. Ertz left a boatload of production on the table (70 air yards), but the usage is positive for him in a plus-matchup versus the Ravens in Week 6. Baltimore is second in yards, targets, and catches to TEs this season.

My Picks:

 Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Sides:

  • The Broncos are 5-6 ATS on the road dating back to 2023 (3-2 ATS last five road games).
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in six of their last eight games as home underdogs.
  • The Broncos have won 10 of their last 11 home games against the Chargers.
  • The Chargers are 2-2 ATS this season.
  • The Chargers have scored first in each of their last four games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Broncos' last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Broncos' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Broncos' last seven games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Sixteen of the Chargers' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers are 4-0 toward the under this season.
  • Eight of the Chargers' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

And just like that, the Denver Broncos are 3-2 on a three-game winning streak. Their defense has emerged as arguably the best unit in the NFL, ranking first against the pass and sixth against the run.

Cornerback Pat Surtain II has allowed the 2nd-lowest EPA per target (-0.76) among corners this season (min. 10 targets) per Next Gen Stats. 25-1 to win Defensive Player of the Year.

The Broncos’ defense ranks fourth in pressure rate and has the highest blitz rate in the NFL. This puts the Chargers in a tough position, given that they might be without starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater once again. Without them blocking, they have allowed the third-highest pressure rate (41%) in 2024. When blitzed, they have allowed the seventh-highest pressure rate (48.4%).

Even if the Chargers have a healthy offensive line, this pass game projects to struggle. Therefore, expect LA to run the ball as much as they can to exploit Denver's lesser strength against the run.

But I still expect it to be a grinding effort.

The same can be said for the Broncos offense.

The Chargers’ defense is SOLID, boasting the 4th-lowest missed tackle rate (10.5%) and converting on over 60% of their first tackle opportunities (61.5%, 8th-highest rate in NFL), according to Next Gen Stats.

L.A.'s defense ranks sixth overall in the fewest EPA/play allowed and top 10 in the fewest passing (10th) and rushing yards (6th) allowed.

Even though the Broncos' rushing game has been heating up the last two weeks, I'm not sure this is a blow-up spot for Javonte Williams. Even if he still has a productive game, it's not a full-blown takeover.

Sean Payton's coaching has worked in the last three games, so I question the market's confidence in a depleted Chargers offense as road favorites.

Sure, Justin Herbert is the superior quarterback, but is this ankle injury preventing him from truly being a special difference-making QB? Especially in an offense starved for weapons that is super reliant on the run game?

The game total under has to be the play here at 35.5 points, given how often both teams play toward underdelivering offensively. And I have to settle on Denver +3, with no key factors (other than quarterback) driving me to bet on the Chargers as slight road divisional favorites. However, the return of OT Joe Alt (full participant in practice this week) and Rashawn Slater (limited) might be the driving force behind the Bolts winning this game. You can tell I’m super confident about this matchup.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Herbert has attempted a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) on 46.2% of his passes, his highest rate since his rookie season (46.9%). As a result, 59.5% of his passing yards have come on quick passes, the highest rate in the league. I expect Ladd McConkey to be on the receiving end of the majority of these quick throws. The rookie slot WR caught five of seven targets for 67 yards and one touchdown (26% Target share) back in Week 4. He boasts a team-high 27% Target share this season.

Herbert has yet to pass for more than 27 attempts in any game this season.

My Picks:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Sides:

  • Pittsburgh is 13-10 ATS since the start of 2023 and is 3-2 this season.
  • The Steelers have won six of their last nine games.
  • The Steelers are 12-7 ATS on the road.
  • The Steelers are 5-5 ATS and on the ML on the road since the start of 2023.
  • The Steelers are 6-5 as home favorites ATS.
  • The Steelers have lost the first half in five of their last six games.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in six of their last nine games.
  • The Raiders are 10-4-1 ATS over their last 15 games.
  • LV is 12-5-1 ATS at home. They are 4-2-1 as a home underdogs ATS. But just 2-4 straight up.
  • The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last six road games.
  • The Raiders have lost eight of their last 10 road games.

Totals:

  • Nine of the Steelers' last 13 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 toward the under this season.
  • Four of the Steelers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Raiders' last 15 games have gone UNDER the total points line and 13-9 toward the under.
  • Four of the Raiders' last seven road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Overall:

Justin Fields will start for Pittsburgh in Week 6 for the sixth straight game this season. Russell Wilson has been practicing fully but he’ll be 2nd string if he’s active on Sunday.

On the flip side, the Raiders announced that Aidan O'Connell will start. Antonio Pierce has seen enough of Gardner Minshew after his pick-six against the Denver Broncos. And even though O'Connell had his moments last season (5-5 as a starter, 7-2-1 ATS), this isn't an ideal spot for him.

The Steelers have an elite pass rush, and O'Connell is not the most agile quarterback in the pocket. He doesn't scramble. Per Next Gen Stats, O'Connell threw past the sticks on just 32.7% of his attempts in 2023, the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL (Minshew: 36.4% this season).

O'Connell did not record a single scramble rush attempt on any of his 367 dropbacks last season, joining Drew Brees (2019) as the only qualified passers to not attempt a single scramble run in a season in the Next Gen Stats era. Is this a Purdue quarterback thing?

Either way, he will be in a lot of trouble against the Steelers. Per Next Gen Stats, the Steelers have used a 4-man rush at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (77.1%) and have generated the 4th-highest pressure rate (35.9%) and tied for the 4th-most sacks (10) when doing so.

The Steelers’ average time to pressure with a four-man rush is 2.53 seconds, fifth-quickest in the league. In 2024, the Raiders have allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate (37.7%) and the most sacks (14) against four-man rushes.

Without Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers also hurt and doubtful, and any semblance of run game, I am very concerned about the Raiders offense.

Pittsburgh should have more success, but I'm not confident it's of the high-scoring variety. They "should" be able to run the ball on a putrid Raiders run defense, but Najee Harris has been so ineffective.

Per Next Gen Stats, Harris has gained more yards than expected on just 26.6% of his rush attempts this season, the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL (min. 50 carries). Harris has generated -63 rushing yards over expected in 2024 (3rd-fewest). He has specifically struggled on outside rushes - his 2.8 yards-per-carry on outside rush attempts is the 3rd-fewest in the NFL (4.2 on inside rushes). The Raiders have allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards over expected in the league this season (+151) and the 7th-most yards per carry to inside rushes (5.0).

And that was before they put DT Christian Wilkins on IR.

The stoppable force that meets the movable object. Woof. If only the Steelers could get Jaylen Warren back to provide the juice this backfield desperately needs.

I could honestly see the Steelers’ passing game putting up solid numbers in this game, given the Raiders’ serious lack of pass rush due to injuries to Wilkins and Maxx Crosby.

I'm not going to overthink this one. I don't see any advantage for the Raiders offensively or defensively.  When I projected this game earlier this week, it was closer to Steeler -4.5

Steelers -3. Lock it in.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, George Pickens leads the NFL in receptions outside the numbers (15) this season. Pickens has been targeted outside the numbers 25 times (T-4th most), and his 215 such yards also rank 4th-most. Fields has thrown outside the numbers on a league-high 52.2% of his attempts in 2024. The Raiders have allowed just 5.5 yards per attempt to pass outside the numbers this season, the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

But the Raiders have also let most WRs run by with a lot of separation. The Raiders have forced a tight window on just 6.4% of downfield (10+ air yards) pass attempts this season, the lowest rate in the NFL by 6.4% per Next Gen Stats.

O’Connell rushed for 2.5 yards (three in each instance) in just 4 of his 11 games played last season (36%).

We hit the Brock Bowers over last week, and we are going right back to it.

Bowers has 45-plus yards in three of his five games played this season. And in Week 4, he should have posted a much better stat line than his 2 for 19 stat line would suggest. He dropped a deep pass on the game’s first play that would have gone for 30-plus yards from the get-go. On the next play, he was targeted again for 8 yards, but it was called back due to a penalty. He more than made up for it with 97 yards in Week 5, hitting the over in the first quarter. The Raiders won’t have Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers is banged up. Targets are coming for Bowers in this spot.

My Picks:

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Sides:

  • The Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games as underdogs and 9-4 as home favorites on the money line.
  • The Falcons are 7-13-2 ATS since the start of 2023. They are better at home, finishing at 7-5 straight up.
  • However, the underdogs have won 10 of the Falcons' last 17 games.
  • The Falcons are 3-5 ATS on the road, 1-4 ATS as road favorites, and 4-12 ATS on the road straight up.
  • Kirk Cousins as a favorite ATS (48%)
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NFC opponents.
  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
  • The Panthers have lost 13 of their last 15 games.

Totals:

  • Atlanta is 2-2 towards the over this season at home.
  • The Falcons are 2-3 O/U this season.
  • Four of the Falcons' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Panthers' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I can't believe I am doing it again. But Terrell Furman has me convinced to back Carolina as this week's "Close Your Eyes Special." For those new to the terminology, it's a betting trend to back a team playing at home after a major blowout the previous week.

But instead of backing the Panthers, I'd rather make this wager AGAINST Kirk Cousins and the Falcons playing in just their second road game of the season.

The Falcons offense is likely getting overinflated love after their insane performance last Thursday night. And even though the matchup is great against a horrible Panthers defense, their route to points might be more on the ground than through the air.

Against Tampa Bay, Atlanta had a +3% pass rate over expectation. From Weeks 1-4, that metric was listed at -6% pass rate over expectation. The Panthers have the second-highest rush rate this season. Going on the road with extra time to prepare, I think we might see more operation ground and pound from the Falcons. Bijan Robinson fantasy football managers? Get ready to rejoice. Fingers crossed, this hamstring injury isn’t a major concern.

The Panthers’ offense came crashing back down to Earth in Chicago. But as I noted last week, Chicago was by far the toughest test they have faced under Andy Dalton.

The Falcons are a much easier test because they can't generate pressure; however, they are still solid at defending the short-quick passing game, which has been Dalton's bread and butter.

If anything, Carolina's best chance is just to continue running behind Chuba Hubbard. They have been horrible defending lightbox fronts (4th-most yards allowed) while using their defense in that formation at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.

This season, Hubbard leads the NFL in rushes with seven or fewer men in the box. He is also on a four-game streak of going OVER his rushing yards prop.

When I first opened the Week 6 slate, I was baffled by this game's total. I thought it was way too high, and I feel my deep dive into the matchup bolsters that claim. These teams rank 19th and 20th, respectively, in PROE.

I think we see more rushing than points scored with Atlanta failing to live up to their Thursday night absurd expectations. Bet the under at 47 and close your eyes for the special on Panthers +6.5.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Diontae Johnson has totaled team-highs in target share (27.4%) and air yard share (39.8%) for the Panthers this season. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell has allowed 13 receptions for 139 yards on 17 targets this season, the highest completion percentage allowed (76.5%) among cornerbacks with at least 10 targets this season.

My Picks:

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Sides:

  • The road team has won each of the Cowboys' last seven games.
  • Dallas is 4-6 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
  • The overall favorites have covered the spread in 17 of the Cowboys' last 24 games.
  • Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost back-to-back-to-back home games.
  • The Lions are 17-8 ATS as a favorite. The Lions are 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023. The Detroit Lions are 12-6 ATS over their last 18 games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
  • The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in eight of their last 10 games.

Totals:

  • Five of the Cowboys' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Twelve of the Cowboys' last 19 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 11 of 17 games through the air.
  • Games in Dallas have averaged 58 points this season (2-0 O/U).
  • Since 2023, Dallas is 8-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
  • Thirteen of the Cowboys' last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
  • Ten of the Lions' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

These teams last faced off in Week 17 of the 2023 season, where Dallas escaped with a controversial victory by a score of 20-19. Still, the Lions covered the 5-point spread.

I'd hardly be surprised if Dan Campbell was using last year's loss to motivate his team again to finish what they started last season.

This is a great spot for them to impose their offensive will against the Dallas Cowboys’ depleted defensive line.

We know that the Lions prefer to run the football if given the opportunity. They have the fifth-highest rush rate this season, and it's been super-efficient.

Per Next Gen Stats, David Montgomery has recorded a rush success rate of 46.5% since joining the Lions last season, the fourth-highest among running backs with at least 150 carries.

On the other hand, Jahmyr Gibbs has a success rate of just 39.0% (22nd). What Gibbs has lacked in consistency, he has made up for in explosiveness. Gibbs has the 6th-highest explosive run rate (14.4%) over the last two seasons, while Montgomery has an explosive run rate of just 9.9% (19th). Both Montgomery and Gibbs have combined for 1,706 rushing yards after contact since 2023, the most in the NFL by any RB duo.

I just can't see Dallas' defense having any answers for stopping this elite rushing attack.

They are better off hoping this game turns into a shootout where Jared Goff is forced to drop back 40-plus times.

Per Next Gen Stats, Goff has faced zone on a league-high 85.1% of his dropbacks. More specifically, Goff has faced Cover 3 on 47.8% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL by a margin of 6.2% (Bo Nix, 41.6%). Jared Goff has used play action on a career-high 37.0% of dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL.

The Cowboys have played zone coverage (71.8%) and Cover 3 (31.3%) at rates similar to the NFL average this season (70.9%; 30.7%). The Cowboys defense has allowed the third-lowest completion percentage on play-action passes this season (53.8%).

Big D's secondary is somewhat underrated and can probably have some success slowing down a Lions' aerial attack. CB Daron Bland will return from IR, and slot CB Jourdan Lewis has the requisite toolkit to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown. Per Next Gen Stats, Jourdan Lewis has allowed just 3.4 yards per target as the nearest defender in coverage this season, 2nd-fewest among 28 slot cornerbacks with at least 10 targets faced (Ar'Darius Washington, 3.3).

The Cowboys’ offense has been incomplete this season. The run offense has been mostly non-existent.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys offense has generated -105 rushing yards over expected this season, the fewest in the NFL. Cowboys rushers have generated more yards than expected on just 29.5% of carries this season, tied for the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL. Dallas has gained 10 or more yards on just 7 of 108 designed runs this season (6.5%), giving them the 4th-lowest explosive run rate in the NFL on such carries this season.

Last week, Rico Dowdle showed signs of life. He had 20 carries for 87 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards on a 50% snap share - the highest rate this season.

But it's another tough draw for him against a fierce Lions run defense. Fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed while ranking 10th in stuff rate percentage. Dallas will try to keep things rolling with Dowdle, but they will abandon it quickly if the game script calls for it.

The game will heavily fall on the shoulders of Dak Prescott and whether he can deliver against the Lions' pass funnel defense (third in pass rate faced).

Per Next Gen Stats, the Lions’ defense has increased their man coverage usage rate by 9.4% from last season (32.5%, 12th-highest) to this season (41.9%, 3rd-highest), the 6th-largest year-over-year increase in the NFL. Opposing passers have thrown 43.0% of their passes outside the numbers against the Lions this season (5th-highest), compared to 37.9% last season (5th-lowest). The Lions have aligned their outside cornerbacks in press coverage on 34.4% of their snaps this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

CeeDee Lamb has stayed effective against press coverage this season, recording a near identical target rate (27.1%) and yards per route (2.8) to last season.

Lamb and Jalen Tolbert will be heavily featured as receivers outside the numbers in this matchup.

Prescott ranks fifth in CPOE over expectation on throws outside the numbers (+4.8%) but has three interceptions. The Cowboys quarterback will attack the perimeter that the Lions allow, for better or for worse. Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards against man coverage.

I think this game gets points, but I can poke enough holes to have it come underneath the massive 52.5-point total. Again, this same matchup last season that totaled 39 points. If Detroit plays bully ball running the football - like they did against Arizona, Tampa Bay, and the Rams when the games went UNDER the total - we are likely looking at a game total under 52.5 points. Their offense also typically plays better at home than on the road.

From a sides perspective, I think this one is tight but side with the Lions -3 based on their strong track record ATS and how well road teams have performed in Cowboys games.

Props:

Per Next Gen Stats, Sam LaPorta has been sent in motion on 37.7% of his offensive snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and the highest rate among tight ends (min. 100 snaps).

LaPorta has been targeted three times on his 33 routes run when being sent in motion (three receptions, 14 yards). LaPorta was sent in motion on 24.4% of his offensive snaps in his rookie season. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 9.8 yards per attempt on pass plays with pre-snap motion this season, the most in the NFL.

The volume hasn’t been there for LaPorta, but the matchup suggests we could see him pick up chunk yardage because of a mismatch. He’s gone over 41.5 yards twice this season and went for 84 yards last season against the Cowboys.

Goff has attempted fewer than 33.5 passes in three of four games this season. Conversely, Gibbs has gone over 12.5 carries and 58.5 rushing yards in three straight contests. Take the over with Gibbs’ rushing props.

My Picks:

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