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NFL Week 6 Composite Power Ratings (2023)

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Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

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    Week 6 NFL Composite Power Ratings

    • The Cincinnati Bengals have quickly become one of the most divisive teams, which is what happens when you mix pre-season priors with their current performances so far this season. At this point, it’s pretty clear that they are not who we thought they’d be. Their two wins have come against a Rams team that shocked people in Week 1 but has since lost three of their last four and a Cardinals team that, as you can see above, is the lowest-rated team. Cincinnati’s game against Seattle this week should give us a better indication if they are “back” before they head into their bye week.
    • Kansas City, the third-highest-rated team, has had a fascinating season so far. After a shocking upset loss against Detroit in Week 1, they have rattled off four straight wins, but have just one game (against Chicago’s abysmal defense) in which they’ve scored more than 27 points. Still, they have the best quarterback in the league, an offense that ranks fourth in EPA per play, and a defense that ranks seventh in EPA per play allowed. Currently, two of the eight sources have the Chiefs as the top-rated team, but their offense may need to get back to being great (and not just good) for more teams to treat them as such.

    Week 6 Matchups

    • The line in the 49ers and Browns matchup has already moved from San Francisco as 3-point favorites when it opened Sunday night to San Francisco as 6.5-point favorites. This has likely changed due to news of Deshaun Watson continuing to miss practices this week and his status being up in the air, but I contend the line should have had the 49ers favored by at least five or six points even if Watson was playing. San Francisco is currently in a tier of its own and, though Cleveland’s defense has proven mighty, the 49ers tore apart a Dallas defense that had similarly played impressive until their matchup.
    • For the second straight week, the composite ratings are showing some value on the New York Jets. Last week I was bullish on New York’s ability to get a victory against Denver, but I feel much less confident in them doing so against Philadelphia. The Eagles, similar to the Chiefs, have not yet fully clicked on offense for an entire game, which is likely causing their rating to be slightly lower than their 5-0 record would suggest. This is a stay-away game for me.
    • The Jacksonville Jaguars will return from their two-week stint in London to host the Indianapolis Colts in a rematch of the Week 1 game that saw the Jaguars victorious in a 31-20 win. What the composite ratings don’t account for that the spread likely does is the impact that staying in Europe for multiple weeks and then playing a game directly after that has on a team. In any other scenario, I would consider Jacksonville to be underrated (like the ratings-based line suggests), but I think the current spread is closer to accurate.

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