NFL Week 6 Early Odds, Best Bets & Trends (2023)

by Austin MacMillan |
Oct 10, 2023

Here is an early look at NFL Week 6 odds and trends:

NFL Week 6 Early Odds & Trends

Broncos @ Chiefs - Thursday, October 12 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - KC -10.5; O/U 49

Broncos trends:

Previous 13 divisional games: 5-8 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-12-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under
Sean Payton as an underdog (Career): 46-30-2 ATS

Chiefs trends:

Previous 12 divisional games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 4-6 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 8-12 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - DEN +10.5

Mahomes has historically struggled to cover large spreads in his career, and Denver's offense has actually looked pretty good aside from going up against a stout Jets defense on Sunday. We've seen Mahomes and the Chiefs opt to slide down short of the goal line instead of scoring to cover spreads, so I'll take the Broncos with the points in this TNF matchup.

Ravens @ Titans - Sunday, October 15 (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London, UK) - 9:30 AM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BAL -3; O/U 40

Ravens trends:

Previous 16 games after a loss: 16-10 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 17-3 to the Under
John Harbaugh as a favorite (Career): 78-85-5 ATS

Titans trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 16 games after a loss: 9-6-1 ATS
Mike Vrabel as an underdog (Career): 26-16-1 ATS

Best bet - Under 40

Both of these teams have trended heavily toward the under in these situations, as both coaches are more than happy to run the ball. Additionally, the under has hit in both international games this year.

Commanders @ Falcons - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - ATL -2.5; O/U 42

Commanders trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 2-4 ATS
Previous 10 games as a road underdog: 6-3-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games after a loss: 8-11-1 ATS

Falcons trends:

Previous 15 games after a win: 4-10-1 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 13-7 ATS; 12-8 to the Under
Previous 26 non-divisional games: 9-16-1 ATS

Best bet - ATL -2.5

Desmond Ridder has looked much more comfortable in his home starts this year, so I'll lay the points with this Falcons team that finally seemed to get the full complement of their offense on track in Week 5.

Vikings @ Bears - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIN -3; O/U 46.5

Vikings trends:

Previous 5 games with rest disadvantage: 1-4 ATS
Previous 12 divisional games: 5-7 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 to the Over
Kevin O'Connell (Career): 9-12-1 ATS

Bears trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 4-2 ATS
Previous 9 games after a win: 2-7 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 2-6-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 6-13-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Over

Best bet - Over 46.5

Neither one of these teams has been able to stop a nosebleed this season, and both have shown the ability to put up points on offense. Recent trends support this play as well, with both teams skewing heavily to the over in these situations.

Colts @ Jaguars - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - JAC -4; O/U 46.5

Colts trends:

Previous 15 divisional games: 5-10 ATS
Previous 20 games as a road underdog: 11-8-1 ATS; 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games against Jacksonville: 5-14-1 ATS

Jaguars trends:

Previous 10 games: 7-3 ATS
Trevor Lawrence (Career): 18-24 ATS
Doug Pederson as a favorite (Career): 25-30 ATS
Previous 20 home games: 8-12 ATS; 15-5 to the Under

Best bet - JAC -4

Though the duo of Pederson and Lawrence hasn't necessarily been profitable in these situations, the Jags have had the Colts number as of late, and I don't trust Gardner Minshew to keep playing consistently well.

Seahawks @ Bengals - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - CIN -2.5; O/U 46

Seahawks trends:

Pete Carroll as an underdog (Career): 48-31-3 ATS
Previous 10 non-conference games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 12-8 ATS; 12-7-1 to the Under

Bengals trends:

Previous 13 non-conference games: 8-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home favorite: 13-7 to the Under
Previous 28 games after a win: 28-10 ATS

Best bet - CIN -2.5

Joe Burrow finally looked like himself against the Cardinals on Sunday, connecting with Ja'Marr Chase 15 times for three TDs. I think we're still getting a slight discount on this line based on the Bengalsâ€™ sluggish start, so I'll back them under a field goal against a Seahawks defense that has given up their fair share of points this year.

Panthers @ Dolphins - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - MIA -13.5; O/U 48.5

Panthers trends:

Previous 10 non-conference games: 4-6 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 7-13 ATS; 11-9 to the Over
Previous 25 games off a loss: 8-16-1 ATS
Frank Reich as an underdog (Career): 14-18-3 ATS

Dolphins trends:

Tua Tagovailoa (Career): 24-15 ATS
Previous 10 home games: 7-3 ATS; 8-2 to the Under
Previous 20 games after a win: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - MIA -13.5

The Dolphins covered -12.5 against the Giants on Sunday in a game that included two INTs from Tua, one of which was returned 102 yards for a TD. I trust them to cover nearly the same number in an identical spot against a Carolina team that has given up points on defense and lacks an offensive identity.

Saints @ Texans - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - NO -1.5; O/U 41.5

Saints trends:

Previous 10 road games: 9-1 to the Under
Previous 10 games as a favorite: 2-7-1 ATS; 7-3 to the Under
Previous 17 games after a win: 5-11-1 ATS

Texans trends:

Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 11 non-conference games: 4-6-1 ATS
Previous 25 non-divisional games: 10-14-1 ATS

Best bet - Under 41.5

The defenses of these teams have both performed very well this season, and I'm still not quite sure what to expect from either offense. I'll take the under, especially in a situation that has seen Saints games go under the total well more often than not.

49ers @ Browns - Sunday, October 15 - 1:00 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - SF -4.5; O/U 39

49ers trends:

Previous 10 games: 8-2 ATS; 7-3 to the Over
Previous 29 non-divisional games: 18-11 ATS
Previous 31 games after a win: 21-10 ATS
Brock Purdy (Career): 11-2 ATS

Browns trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 0-6 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 6-3-1 to the Under
Previous 20 home games: 12-7-1 to the Under

Best bet - SF -4.5

If it isn't broken, why try to fix it? The 49ers are rolling teams, looking like the best team in the NFL on both sides of the ball by a decisive margin. I'll keep backing this team until they prove to be unprofitable.

Patriots @ Raiders - Sunday, October 15 - 4:05 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - LV -3; O/U 42.5

Patriots trends:

Previous 20 games as an underdog: 6-14 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 12-8 to the Under
Mac Jones (Career): 16-22 ATS

Raiders trends:

Previous 9 games with rest disadvantage: 6-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 5-15 ATS
Previous 25 non-divisional games: 9-16 ATS
Josh McDaniels as a favorite (Career): 8-12 ATS

Best bet - LV -3

This Patriots offense is in absolute shambles, scoring three points combined in their previous two games. Key defensive injuries to Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon compound the problems for this team, making them an auto-fade for me at the moment.

Lions @ Buccaneers - Sunday, October 15 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DET -3; O/U 44

Lions trends:

Previous 10 road games: 7-3 ATS
Previous 13 games after a win: 10-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 to the Over
Previous 26 non-divisional games: 16-10 ATS

Buccaneers trends:

Previous 10 home games: 3-6-1 ATS
Todd Bowles as an underdog (Career): 20-27-3 ATS
Previous 28 non-divisional games: 10-17-1 ATS

Best bet - DET -3

Detroit's offensive has been downright explosive dating back to last season, resulting in one of the most profitable teams ATS over that time span. I don't expect that to change against a Buccaneers offense that figures to be vulnerable through the air, so I'll back them in this road spot against a Tampa team that I don't think is quite as good as their record indicates.

Eagles @ Jets - Sunday, October 15 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - PHI -6.5; O/U 42.5

Eagles trends:

Previous 20 games: 12-8 to the Over
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 11-8-1 ATS
Previous 29 non-divisional games: 16-12-1 ATS

Jets trends:

Previous 10 home games: 7-3 to the Under
Previous 11 non-conference games: 3-8 ATS
Previous 12 games after a win: 4-8 ATS
Robert Saleh (Career): 18-21 ATS

Best bet - NYJ +6.5

The Jets have played well against the toughest teams on their schedule, both of which were home games against the Bills and Chiefs. Zach Wilson seems to have found something in his last two starts, and the defense remains one of the most reliable units in the NFL, so I'll take the points with the Jets as a home underdog in this one.

Cardinals @ Rams - Sunday, October 15 - 4:25 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - LA -6.5; O/U 48

Cardinals trends:

Previous 10 games against the Rams: 2-7-1 ATS
Previous 14 divisional games: 5-9 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS

Rams trends:

Previous 18 games after a loss: 9-6-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 8-12 ATS
Previous 20 games as home favorite: 8-11-1 ATS; 13-7 to the Under

Best bet - LAR -6.5

Cooper Kupp worked his way back seamlessly into the Rams offense, and the Cardinals seem to have been exposed by the Bengals after starting the season extremely competitively. McVay has owned this matchup in recent seasons, and I'll back him in this spot at home under a touchdown.

Giants @ Bills - Sunday, October 15 - 8:20 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - BUF -14; O/U 45

Giants trends:

Previous 11 non-conference games: 7-4 ATS
Previous 20 games as an underdog: 14-5-1 to the Under
Brian Daboll as an underdog (Career): 10-6 ATS

Bills trends:

Previous 10 games after a loss: 6-2-2 ATS
Previous 11 non-conference games: 6-4-1 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 12-8 to the Under
Sean McDermott as a favorite (Career): 34-25-4 ATS

Best bet - Under 45

I don't think we should expect much out of a Giants offense that could be without Daniel Jones, and the Bills are in a tough travel spot coming back from their trip to London. I'll take the under in a spot where both teams have trended to go under the point total in recent seasons.

Cowboys @ Chargers - Monday, October 16 - 8:15 PM EST

Current Consensus Lines - DAL -2.5; O/U 49.5

Cowboys trends:

Previous 11 games after a loss: 10-1 ATS
Previous 20 road games: 13-7 ATS
Previous 20 games as a favorite: 13-7 ATS
Mike McCarthy as a favorite (Career): 103-71-4 ATS

Chargers trends:

Previous 6 games with rest advantage: 1-5 ATS
Previous 10 games as an underdog: 7-3 ATS
Previous 20 games as a home underdog: 7-13 ATS; 14-6 to the Under
Brandon Staley as an underdog (Career): 9-3 ATS

Best bet - LAC +2.5

Dallas has really struggled in road games against Arizona and San Francisco, where they were exposed on both sides of the ball. I'll take the points with the Chargers as home underdogs to continue the road woes for the Cowboys.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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