Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 6 Early Bets and Trends
For the past few NFL seasons, each Sunday night I've written an early bets piece highlighting some applicable trends I've noticed for the upcoming week.
I'm not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
So here are some trends for Week 6 as well as a few early bets I like based on the current lines in the market and my early personal projections, which I will update throughout the week along with our premium BettingPros spread projections.
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Note: These aren't all the trends I'm seeing and all the early bets I like. These are just a few of them. For more of my early Week 6 bets, check out the BettingPros App.
All lines and odds are from the BettingPros NFL odds page and as of Oct. 9. All the historical trends information is from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
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New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Patriots at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Browns: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Browns -3
- Over/Under: 42
- Moneyline: Browns -155, Patriots +130
Cleveland Browns Trends
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 8-16 ATS (28.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
- Browns: 2-6 ATS (46.2% ROI for faders) vs. former HC Bill Belichick
Patriots at Browns: Early Bet
- Best Line: Patriots +3 (-110, UniBet)
- Personal Projection: Patriots +1.75
- Limit: Patriots +3
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +3.5.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Jets at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: FOX
Jets at Packers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Packers -7.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Moneyline: Packers -335, Jets +270
Green Bay Packers Trends
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 66-35-3 ATS (26.5% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 97-66-3 ATS (16.1% ROI) as favorite
Jets at Packers: Early Bet
- Best Line: Packers -7.5 (+100, DraftKings)
- Personal Projection: Packers -10.25
- Limit: Packers -9
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of -9
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Bills at Chiefs matchup page. Written before Chiefs play on Monday Night Football in Week 5.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bills at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bills -1.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Moneyline: Bills -125, Chiefs +105
Kansas City Chiefs Trends
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 6-2 ML (89.3% ROI) as underdog
Bills at Chiefs: Early Bet
- Best Line: Chiefs +2 (-110, Caesars)
- Personal Projection: Chiefs -1.25
- Limit: Chiefs +1
Note: I first posted this pick in the BettingPros app via the lookahead line of +1.
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