NFL Week 6 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
In Week 5, the top-scoring offense in football was shut out, the Jets put up 40 against the Dolphins and the winless Texans managed to knock off the Jaguars in Jacksonville. The Giants also managed to mount a two-score comeback against the Packers in London to move to 4-1 on the season.
Week 6 features some very lopsided matchups and a meeting between the Bills and Chiefs in Kansas City. Where can you expect the lines to move as kickoffs approach?
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Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears
How many times can bettors get burned by the Commanders? They are a miserable 1-4 against the spread, despite being popular plays over the last few weeks. In Week 5, they had a chance to win outright, but Carson Wentz threw a pick in the end zone with seconds remaining.
The Bears started off terribly against the Vikings, but they rallied late and even took the lead before falling 29-22. Neither of these teams is very good this season, but look for the Bears to see the line move in their favor for two reasons: They’re at home, and bettors simply do not trust Washington anymore.
Current Line: Bears -1.5
Predicted Final Line: Bears -2.5
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
The Packers have now failed to cover in two consecutive games as a touchdown or more favorite. Two weeks ago, they managed to get a win, but last week, they scored zero offensive points in the second half as the Giants pulled the major upset.
The Packers now get the Jets, a team riding high after a 40-17 victory. The Dolphins were absolutely depleted, but anytime the Jets score 40 points in a game, it will garner some attention. With bettors burned twice in a row by the Packers and the Jets pulling out two wins in a row, look for this number to drop below a touchdown.
Current Line: Packers -7
Predicted Final Line: Packers -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett finally took over the starting role in Pittsburgh, and he was rewarded by having to face Josh Allen and Tom Brady in his first two starts. The Bills steamrolled the Steelers. while the Buccaneers’ offense hasn’t looked great this season, the defense is going to make it very hard for the Steelers’ offense to do much of anything this week.
Neither one of these teams has been very good against the spread, with the Buccaneers coming in at 2-3 and the Steelers entering at 1-3-1. However, until Pickett and the Steelers prove they can stay in games, they’re going to be huge underdogs, especially when playing big-name opponents. Don’t be surprised if this line gets into double digits.
Current Line: Buccaneers -8
Predicted Final Line: Buccaneers -9.5
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
A potential preview of the AFC Championship game features two quarterbacks putting up outstanding numbers. Josh Allen decimated the Steelers in Week 5, throwing for 424 yards and four touchdowns.
The performance has made the Bills an early favorite, despite this game being played in Kansas City. While the Bills are likely the better team, it’s hard to imagine the line moving in their favor when Patrick Mahomes is playing at home.
Look for bettors to back the Chiefs, as this line will become negligible prior to kickoff, ultimately ending as a pick ‘em.
Current Line: Bills -2
Predicted Final Line: Pick ‘em
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
While everyone is calling the Bills and Chiefs the Game of the Week, the real marquee matchup may take place in Philadelphia on “Sunday Night Football.†The Eagles are the last remaining unbeaten team, while the Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 without Dak Prescott.
Prescott wants to come back as soon as possible, but with the way the defense is playing and how sound Cooper Rush has been at quarterback, there is no reason for the Cowboys to rush him. The Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 against the spread with Rush under center, while the Eagles are 3-2 against the spread on the season.
No matter who is starting at quarterback for the Cowboys, look for this line to shrink as the week goes on and bettors back the Cowboys and their strong defense.
Current Line: Eagles -5
Predicted Final Line: Eagles -4
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Two teams heading in opposite directions meet Monday night. The Broncos are 1-4 against the spread this season, while the Chargers are 4-1. Because of the scheduling by the NFL, the Broncos’ offense has been on display in primetime, and their struggles have been the talk of the NFL.
The Chargers survived in Cleveland and now scored 30 or more points in back-to-back weeks. The Broncos have scored over 20 just once this season and are averaging 15.0 points per game, the second-worst in the league.
All the Chargers have to do in this game is score and they will be able to win comfortably. This line has already moved to 6.5 at some major sportsbooks. Look for it to move through the key number as kickoff approaches.
Current Line: Chargers -6
Predicted Final Line: Chargers -7.5
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