NFL Week 6 Early Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Nick MacDonald |
Oct 10, 2023

Last week, I said I couldn't accept that Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots were a bad team. I was wrong, very wrong. Not accepting that earlier cost me my parlay last week, and I won't make the mistake of believing in them again. As far as the Patriots go, as long as they are starting Mac Jones, my lean for the foreseeable future will be toward the under or losses, no matter who they play.

Speaking of the Patriots, letâ€™s get to my Early Week 6 Parlay.

NFL Week 6 Early Parlay

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Leg 1: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 @ Cleveland Browns (â€“110)

San Francisco looks like the most complete team in the league. Their offense is averaging over 33 points per game, and their defense is allowing only 14 points per game. They are dominating on both sides of the ball and are only laying 4.5 points against the Browns.

Kevin Stefanski will be looking to improve his 2-1 record coming off a bye after the Browns were off in Week 5. Even with the extra rest and preparation time, this 49ers team looks to be a tough matchup for the Browns. The Brownsâ€™ defense has looked good through four games, only giving up 15 points per game, but their offense has struggled, averaging 19 points per game this season. Keeping Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Brock Purdy to under 19 points will be the toughest task for this defense so far this year. The 49ers only having to cover 4.5 feels like a good bet to me.

Leg 2: New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders Under 43 (-115)

After close one-score losses against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins, I believed that the Patriots were a good team that faced two great teams to start their season. Then they narrowly beat the New York Jets 15-10 in Week 3. I kept believing they were a good team because the Jetsâ€™ defense is good, and they even upset the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. After Week 3, I felt Belichick was enough to have this team close in every game, and with some decent luck, they could get into the playoffs.

Since then, they have been outscored 72-3 over the last two games against the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints. I am now fully out on this team, especially Mac Jones and their offense.

At the time of writing this, the Las Vegas Raiders have not yet played their Week 5 Monday night matchup against the Green Bay Packers. Still, through four games, their offense is averaging only 15.5 points per contest. The Packers have been known to give up huge games on the ground, so even if Josh Jacobs has a massive game against Green Bay, it won't change my mind on the under with Vegas facing a stout New England run defense next week. A total of 43 for these two offenses feels high, and I won't be surprised to see this number drop later in the week.

Leg 3: Detroit Lions -3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120)

The Detroit Lions scored 42 points this week against the Carolina Panthers without Amon-Ra St. Brown in the lineup. The team has looked strong all season but is coming off back-to-back weeks with double-digit wins in games that were never really in question.

The Buccaneers have been a bit of a surprise this year. Their 3-1 record through the first four weeks has them projected to blow by their 7.5-win total coming into the season. So far, those three wins have come against the Vikings, Bears and Saints, who have a combined record of 5-10. The Buccaneersâ€™ one loss was a 25-11 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. It seems like the Lions are the more trustworthy team, and only being three-point favorites feels low. I like the Lions to cover in Tampa Bay, even with the Buccaneers coming off of a Week 5 bye.

Three-Leg Parlay Odds: +554

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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