NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information. Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
For example, the Chiefs moved from 6.5 to four-point favorites after the news that Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice two days before the 2023 opening night game. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp was ruled out against Seattle, and the line stayed within a point of the Seahawks opening line of -5.5.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games and help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| WAS | ATL | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 41.5 | 42 | 0.5 |
| NYG | BUF | -15 | -14.5 | 0.5 | 46 | 44.5 | -1.5 |
| MIN | CHI | 3 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 48 | 44 | -4 |
| SEA | CIN | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 | -2 |
| SF | CLE | 5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 42 | 37 | -5 |
| NO | HOU | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1 | 40.5 | 42 | 1.5 |
| IND | JAX | -4 | -4 | 0 | 45.5 | 44 | -1.5 |
| DEN | KC | -10.5 | -10.5 | 0 | 51 | 47 | -4 |
| DAL | LAC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 48 | 50.5 | 2.5 |
| ARI | LAR | -5.5 | -7 | -1.5 | 47 | 49 | 2 |
| NE | LV | -3 | -3 | 0 | 42.5 | 41 | -1.5 |
| CAR | MIA | -14 | -13.5 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 47.5 | -1 |
| PHI | NYJ | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 | 42 | 41 | -1 |
| DET | TB | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 42 | -3.5 |
| BAL | TEN | 3.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 40 | 42 | 2 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 6 Spread Movement Analysis
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: +5 ?' +8.5
The movement in this game stems from the news that Deshaun Watson will likely not play. Coming out of the bye, he has yet to practice as of Thursday. Regardless if the Browns start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson or P.J. Walker, it will be difficult for the Browns’ top-ranked defense to keep this game close. The 49ers are 5-0 and are winning their games by an average of 19.8 points.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: -5.5 ?' -7
The spread stretched to a touchdown from 5.5 points early in the week. The Cardinals have been surprisingly competitive to start the year, but they just had to place starting RB James Conner on IR. Meanwhile, the Rams have gotten healthier with Cooper Kupp back for his second game of the season. In Kupp’s return from IR last week, he played 95% of the snaps and saw 12 targets.
NFL Week 6 Total Movement Analysis
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 48 ?' 44
The dip from 48 to 44 can be tied to the Vikings officially placing Justin Jefferson on IR. The Vikings can still find success through the air but will have to rely on their first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison to step up. The Bears have allowed the second most passing TDs this season but the offense has shown signs of life the last couple of weeks averaging 34 ppg.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 45.5 ?' 42
The home/road splits for Jared Goff have been well documented, but that has not stopped Detroit from starting the year 2 – 0 on the road. The drop in total can likely be attributed to injuries on the offensive side for both teams. Mike Evans returned to practice on Thursday in a limited fashion but it is still undecided whether the Bucs will have him available on Sunday due to a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Lions top-drafted rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta both did not practice on Thursday.
Transform your betting strategy with Automated Line Tracking across all major markets and sports >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts