NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis (2024)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| JAX | CHI | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 43 | 44.5 | 1.5 |
| IND | TEN | +1 | -2.5 | 3.5 | 42 | 43 | 1 |
| WAS | BAL | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0 | 51 | 51.5 | 0.5 |
| CLE | PHI | -9 | -9.5 | 0.5 | 44 | 42.5 | -1.5 |
| AZ | GB | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 49.5 | 47.5 | -2 |
| HOU | NE | +7 | +7 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 0 |
| TB | NO | -2.5 | 3.5 | -6 | 45.5 | 41.5 | -4 |
| PIT | LV | +3 | +3 | 0 | 36.5 | 36.5 | 0 |
| LAC | DEN | +2.5 | +3 | 0.5 | 36 | 36 | 0 |
| DET | DAL | +3.5 | +3 | 0.5 | 52 | 52 | 0 |
| ATL | CAR | +5.5 | +6 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 47 | -1.5 |
| CIN | NYG | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
| BUF | NYJ | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0 | 42 | 41 | -1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 6 Spread Movement Analysis
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: +1 ?' -2.5
This line is one of two that jumped the fence this week. A lot of that movement has to do with injuries to several skill position players for the Colts. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has already been declared active, but running back Jonathan Taylor is questionable (ankle) and wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is doubtful with a back injury.
Indianapolis now has three losses this season by six or fewer points. Tennessee is coming off a bye week after its first win of the season. Even though the Titans are 1-8 straight up (SU) in their last nine games against division rivals, there is a great chance this line gets to -3 given all the injuries the Colts are dealing with.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: -2.5 ?' +3.5
New Orleans’ injuries are not as widespread as Indianapolis’, but the major one is to its quarterback, as Derek Carr is expected to miss multiple games with an oblique injury. Given that the Saints played on Monday night last week, several sportsbooks had lookahead lines of -2.5, but the line quickly jumped the fence and continued to balloon once Carr was ruled out.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was outgained 550-333 in an overtime loss on Thursday night in Week 5 to Atlanta, but the Falcons still only had a 7% win probability at the end of regulation despite dominating the stat sheet.
Even without the injury to Carr, the spread was likely to move in Tampa Bay’s favor anyway given that it has won three of its last four games at the Superdome.
NFL Week 6 Total Movement Analysis
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens: 51 ?' 51.5
The line movement on this total from beginning to end may only be a half-point difference, but that does not tell the whole story about how bettors have weighed in on this game all week. The total initially made stops at 52 and 52.5 before under backers weighed in and drove the line back down to the original number of 51. However, given that the total ticked back up a half-point to 51.5, that suggests we should not see this game kick off with a total lower than 51.
There is no secret why the total is the second-highest of any game on the Week 6 slate, as rookie Jayden Daniels ranks in the top three in the NFL in Total QBR, completion percentage and yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson ranks fifth in Total QBR, third in TD:INT ratio, second in yards per dropback and second in passing and rushing yards combined. However, it also brings into play the trend that unders in games with a total of 50+ points are 16-4 over the last two seasons.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 48.5 ?' 47
This line is down 1.5 points from its opening number but has teetered back and forth between higher and lower numbers all week. The first move was to the over, as the total went from 48.5 to 49 from Sunday night into Monday morning. However, from there, the line plummeted to 46, which is where over backers weighed in again, driving it back to 47.5. The total matched a week-long low at 46 a second time, but over backers continued to pounce at that low number, bringing it back to 47, where we stand currently.
The love for the under is surprising, given Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off a 500-yard passing day and Carolina has allowed its most points through five games in franchise history (165).
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.