NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Week 6 of the NFL season is fast approaching, and we get started with an AFC West Division Battle as the 4-1 Kansas City Chiefs play host to the 1-4 Denver Broncos.
Also, for the third straight week, we are lucky enough to watch some live football as we eat our bacon and eggs as the Ravens and Titans travel across the pond to London.
As always, we keep tabs on all the NFL Lines, dissecting any significant move that may have happened early in the week.
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NFL Week 6 Line Movement
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
Spread
Total
We have seen early movement on both the spread and the total. The 49ers opened as 3.0-point favorites and quickly jumped up to 5.0-point favorites after humiliating the Dallas Cowboys on national TV.
This was already one of the lower totals on the board for week 6, as these two teams have the best defenses statistically in the league. San Francisco and Cleveland rank No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed per game, respectively. So there is no surprise we have seen this drop. Plus, the weather in Cleveland on Sunday does not look the greatest. The forecast shows a high temperature of 56°F with a chance of rain and winds of 15-25 MPH.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (London)
Spread
DraftKings open this lineup with the Ravens as 4.0-point favorites as they head across the pond and take on the Titans. Monday morning, there was quite a bit of action on the Titans as this line bounced back and forth between 3.0 and 3.5, eventually settling on 3.5.
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Spread
We may be seeing a bit of recency bias here. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bears on Thursday night, while the Falcons squeaked out a last-second victory against the Texans.
DraftKings opened this line with the Falcons as 1.5-point home favorites, and by Monday morning, the Falcons have been bet up to 2.5-point favorites. Washington does get the rest advantage by coming off a Thursday night game, but Atlanta also has the benefit of playing back-to-back home games.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Total
Near the conclusion of the Vikings/Chiefs games, DraftKings set the total for Vikings/Bears at 49.0. By 10 a.m. ET Monday, the total was down to 46.5. This may have to do with the status of Justin Jefferson. The Vikings’ star receiver left the game against the Chiefs with a hamstring injury and never returned. Jefferson will undergo further testing on Monday, which should clarify his status for this week’s game.
Weather is expected to affect many outdoor games this weekend. Early forecasts show low temperatures, high winds and a 60% chance of rain in Chicago on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans
Spread
The Houston Texans are receiving some early love for the second week in a row. Last week, we saw the Falcons open as 2.5-point favorites, and the line completely flipped with the Texans as 1.0-point favorites. Later in the week, there was some backing to where the Falcons became the home favorite again.
Here we are again with the Saints opening as 2.5-point favorites, and as of Monday morning, this line dropped a point and a half.
The Texans are heading in the right direction with rookie C.J. Stroud, but they still are a few pieces away from competing or beating a veteran team like the Saints. This line move may be an overreaction, and we may see this line move back into the Saints’ favor later in the week.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
- NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview & Predictions: Packers vs. Raiders (Week 5)
- NFL Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay Picks: Packers vs. Raiders (Week 5)
- NFL Week 6 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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