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NFL Week 6 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Welcome back to my Week 6 NFL Line Report at BettingPros, featuring my custom cost-per-point betting analysis. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, I encourage you to check out my Week 1 introduction. Long story short, NFL prices aren't standardized, so not all points are priced equally. I'm going to run valuations on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting board each week and chart prices to identify which scenarios are advantageous to bet the ML versus ATS (and vice-versa).

NFL Week 6 Line Report: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Significant Overnight Line Moves And Notes Since The Open

BAL moved from (-2) to (-4.5) at TEN

While the direction of this move didn’t surprise me whatsoever, the way it blew through the critical (-3) sure did. The Ravens are playing extremely well on defense, posting top-2 ranks in scoring (15.0), yards per play (3.9), and Def. EPA/Dropback (0.18) without allowing a single rushing touchdown to boot. However, the Ravens haven’t necessarily delivered on the high-flying Todd Monken offense we were promised. Baltimore is currently bottom-10 in average drive distance (27.1), scoring drive rate (30.5), and 31st in dropbacks per game (28.6). The Titans will challenge strength with strength. Their run defense just got housed by Zach Moss for (23/165/2) but they still allow only 3.6 yards per attempt and a single 20-yard rush all season. Perhaps the pendulum has swung too far toward BAL.

WAS moved from (PK) to (+2.5) at ATL

The real story heading into this one has to be the Commanders’ defense playing the movable force against Arthur Smith’s stoppable object. If not for Denver’s historically bad defensive run in 2023, Washington would absolutely garner more attention for porous play. Over the last four games, WAS has imploded to the tune of 31st in points allowed per game (36.0), Def. EPA/Play (-0.17), Scoring Drive% (64.3), Def. EPA/Dropback (-0.26), yards per reception (14.4), 20-yard completions (18), and passing TDs (10). Combine that with Desmond Ridder hitting his 98th-percentile outcome by passing for 329 yards last week and you’ve got your explanation for the move.

SEA moved from (+0.5) to (+3) at CIN

Not often will you see such a significant line move against a team that just flattened their opponent the way Seattle did to New York. However, at the very same time, Joe Burrow added nearly two air yards per target to his Week 5 output while showing enough mobility in his calf to reinvigorate Bengal backers everywhere. To me, this game really embodies just how much a team’s trajectory, and therefore our perceptions, will change throughout a season. Three points feels right on the nose and I doubt it’s going to move from there.

NFL Week 6 Cost Analysis-Based Expected Line Moves

NYG should move from (+14) to (+14.5) at BUF

Last week we used a combination of cost-per-point and intra-game disparity to peg the Giants’ line for a collapse and nailed it. Big Blue went on to lose by 15, which ironically improved their league-worst -18.2 average point differential this year. Well, as they say: second verse, same as the first. The Giants are heading to sunny Buffalo and obviously, no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. At +$56/point and a $300 differential, the (-900) Buffalo moneyline borders insanity. I believe betting momentum gets this one beyond two TDs at the close considering we still aren’t even sure if Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones will play.

NFL Week 6 Favorites with Value on the Moneyline vs. ATS

NFL Week 6 Underdogs with Value ATS vs. On the Moneyline

  • CHI (+2.5) vs MIN
  • LAC (+2) vs DAL
  • HOU (+1.5) vs NO

Week 6 Best Bet: San Francisco -6.5 (-110) at Cleveland to win 1 unit. Record YTD (2-1-1, +0.9u)

This line started moving once Deshaun Watson missed practice off the bye so you may have to act fast. But just so I don’t leave you hanging, I’m clearing this play to SF (-7).  I’ll admit that Cleveland’s defense deserves all the love it’s getting in analytical circles. They’re top-3 in essentially every critical defensive metric, including the overall lead in yards per game, yards per play, and Def. EPA/Play. That said, they’ve yet to face a single healthy and/or functional offense and that’s about to change. This 49er offense combines the best skill group in the NFL with its most effective playcalling, paving the way to the league’s best point +19.8-point differential.

Now we’re finding out Browns’ QB Deshuan Watson missed Wednesday’s practice, which is never a good sign following a bye. For some perspective on how bad rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson played in Week 4, it was the 6th worst game by EPA/attempt (-0.65) out of 717 games played (min +10 attempts) since 2022.  If Watson indeed misses the game, this line’s closing north of (-10).

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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