Navigate

NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

by |

This week's installment of “Futures Bets to Consider” features two plays on season-long awards in the MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year markets.

I'm recommending a shot on Brock Purdy to take home the MVP trophy at the end of the season. Although the odds have shortened significantly since the preseason, I still find +700 to be a great price for potentially the most efficient QB in the NFL on the league's most dominant team.

For OROY, I'm recommending Bijan Robinson, who has gained some value in this market due to hot starts from some other rookies around the league. Robinson will only get more work in this run-heavy Falcons offense as the season progresses, so I think this is the perfect time to buy his OROY ticket if you didn't do it before the season.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Week 6: Best Futures Bets

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)

Brock Purdy To Win MVP (+700)

The debate about whether Purdy is a good QB or just a product of the Kyle Shanahan system is over in my mind. Purdy has performed at an elite level in 2023 despite spending the offseason recovering from an elbow injury. Purdy has led the 49ers to a perfect 5-0 start, with a 4-1 ATS record that would also be perfect if not for a late Sean McVay field goal to get the Rams a cover in Week 2. He leads the NFL in QBR (83.6), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.79) and passing success rate (59%). Purdy ranks second in completion % (72.1%) and yards per completion (13.0). He is also one of only two QBs not to throw an interception this year, with a perfect TD:INT ratio of 9:0.

Team success is an important component of the MVP award, and there's no reason to believe that this 49ers team won't qualify for a top-two seed in the NFC. We've also seen a Shanahan-coached QB win this award, with Matt Ryan winning the MVP with Shanahan as his OC in Atlanta in 2016 in a season that could profile very similarly to Purdy's this year. While it's true that we've missed the best of the number at this point, I'd rather buy it now before it dips any further because I don't see Purdy or this 49ers team slowing down any time soon.

Bijan Robinson To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+500)

Hot starts from other rookies like C.J. Stroud and Puka Nacua have created some value for Robinson, whose number at BetMGM is actually longer than it was at the beginning of the season.

While Stroud has had an incredible start to his career, setting the NFL record for consecutive passes without throwing an interception as a rookie, I think he'll have an increasingly more difficult time as teams gather more film on him in this Texans offense. We started to see that in his most recent game at Atlanta.

Nacua also got off to a blazing start, setting another NFL record for receptions within a player's first three games, but we just saw Cooper Kupp garner a team-high 12 targets, eight receptions and 118 yards in his return from the IR.

Meanwhile, Robinson has worked to become the lead back for the Falcons, out-touching the incumbent Tyler Allgeier in three of the past four weeks. He already has two 100-yard rushing games to his name, and he's caught at least four passes in all but one of Atlanta's games. His workload will only increase over the course of the season, making him even more of a catalyst in this Atlanta offense that runs the ball at a top-10 rate. He has helped to raise both the floor and the ceiling of this Falcons team that figures to be in contention for the NFC South and an NFC playoff spot at the end of the season.

It also doesn't hurt that Robinson is the embodiment of a human joystick, with his insane juke moves and one-handed catches going viral on social media. I think this is a great price to buy the preseason OROY favorite, as his production figures only to go up over the course of the season, while others like Stroud and Nacua will almost certainly regress as the season matures.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App