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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week, DJ Moore finished with 230 receiving yards and three touchdowns, George Kittle scored three touchdowns, and the New Orleans Saints shut out the New England Patriots 34-0. These were just a few of the longshot bets that cashed around the league. What should we expect this week?

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 6 of the NFL season.

Best NFL Week 6 Longshot Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins 41-50 Points (+475)

Other than their 70-point performance back in Week 3, the Dolphins haven't scored more than 40 points in a game this season. This week, they take on a Carolina Panthers' defense that just allowed 42 points to the Detroit Lions.

De'Von Achane is going to miss this game, but the Dolphins still have Raheem Mostert. He will get a chance this week against a defense allowing 140.8 rushing yards per game. The passing attack is well-documented, and though the Panthers are allowing just 204.4 passing yards per game, the Dolphins are matchup-proof.

Finally, Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense turn the ball over entirely too much. Last week, they turned the ball over three times and the Lions had no problem cashing in. If the turnovers continue Sunday, the Dolphins' offense is going to put up their second-highest point total of the season.

K.J. Osborn 100+ Receiving Yards (+750)

Justin Jefferson is out, which means that K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are going to see a huge increase in their target shares. Osborn is expected to take over Jefferson's role, and while he is no Jefferson, he is going to be the first read on a lot of plays. 

The Vikings throw the ball on nearly two-thirds of all offensive plays. Of their 380.4 yards per game, 299.6 of them are through the air. Last week, Jefferson's absence immediately led to more targets for Osborn. He ended the game with a season-high nine, and that was with Jefferson playing some of the game.

Now, with a whole week to plan for Osborn to be the No. 1 wide receiver, we expect him to see double-digit targets in Week 6. The best news for Osborn and every other receiver on this offense is they're playing the Chicago Bears. The Bears' defense is allowing 295.2 passing yards per game. Osborn may not be the only receiver who tops 100 yards on Sunday.

Washington Commanders/Houston Texans/Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline Parlay (+840)

For our last play, we're going with an underdog parlay. The Commanders were embarrassed at home last Thursday night. They've now lost three games in a row, but with extra time to prepare for Atlanta this week, we like them to get the road victory. The Falcons were blown out two weeks in a row before their last-second win over the Houston Texans last week. The explosiveness of the Commanders' offense will be too much for Atlanta.

C.J. Stroud orchestrated a phenomenal game-winning drive last week. The only problem was there was still time left on the clock after he threw the go-ahead touchdown pass. The Texans lost, and now they're home underdogs against the Saints who just demolished the Patriots. However, the Texans are in every game, and until last week, the Saints had allowed their opponents to stay in games as well. The Saints' defense has played great, but they've also faced some of the worst offenses in football. If the Texans play how they did in Week 3 and 4, they could win this game by double-digits.

Finally, we're adding the Chargers. This is a team that could be 4-0. Their two losses are by a combined four points, and they went 2-1 without Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is back this week, and that is going to be trouble for the Cowboys' aggressive pass rush. The Chargers are one of the best offensive teams in football and the Cowboys' defense has padded their stats against some of the worst offenses in the league. In a high-scoring game, the team coming off the bye gets the win.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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