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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2023)

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As we predicted in our Week 5 article, NFL Underdogs bounced back last week as six Underdogs won outright with our first batch of bye weeks.

An early look at the board for Week 6 reveals mostly spreads within a touchdown, while a couple of games have a whopping 13-14 point spreads thanks to the Giants and Panthers. Let's take a closer look into these games and see if we can continue our Underdog success in Week 6.

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NFL Week 6: Top Underdog Bets

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (+2.5)

In Week 5, we saw the Bears finally explode for 40 points and show what this offense can be with newcomer DJ Moore. He nearly had four TDs, and we saw Justin Fields have another four TD game himself. Did this Bears offense finally turn the corner? I’m not entirely sold on them, but I like what I saw from Fields, as he looked more confident on Thursday night. I also liked what I saw from OC Luke Getsy, as he’s trying to get Justin Fields the ball in open space more than he did in September, where he kept Fields in the pocket as a passer.

On the other side, this Vikings team keeps trending down. Now, they have lost star Justin Jefferson to injured reserve (IR), and all hope seems lost in Minnesota. Now 1-4 without their best player, I can see this team being less motivated for the rest of the year. One thing I won’t do is back this team as a favorite without Justin Jefferson on the field. This defense has not been able to stop anybody, and now they’ll need to figure out how to slow down Fields and this Chicago offense on the road at Soldier Field.

Chicago’s run defense has been pretty solid, while the Vikings’ rushing attack has been in the bottom five in the NFL. If they get one-dimensional with the passing game on the road, I just don’t trust them to get the job done without Jefferson. I see Kirk Cousins making some mistakes and taking sacks, as these receivers may have some trouble getting open. Chicago can key in on Hockenson to make this difficult for the Vikings offense.

I'm going to take the home dogs to continue their success with some extra rest from last Thursday.

Bet: Bears +2.5 vs. Vikings (-110)

Washington Commanders (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

We’re going to back another team from last Thursday, the Washington Commanders. I’m not a huge fan of Ron Rivera, but I do believe he’ll get this defense motivated to play Atlanta after a disgusting performance against Chicago last week. The defensive line needs to step up, as this is the Commanders’ best unit on the team. I believe they’ll do just that and get after Desmond Ridder on Sunday. Ridder played pretty great last week and spoiled our Texans upset, but I think this will be a stiffer test for him as the Commanders look to forget about their game last week. They’ve had 10 days to think about it and rest up, so I’d be surprised if they came out sluggish again here.

It'll be a tough road test, but I'm trusting Rivera to put together a strong defensive game plan to limit Bijan Robinson's effectiveness and confuse Ridder all afternoon. The Commanders will need to get their playmakers the ball on offense, as we saw guys like Terry McLaurin on the sideline in big situations last week, which was puzzling.

Take the Commanders with the points and outright to bounce back in Atlanta this week.

Bet: Commanders +2.5 vs. Falcons (-102)

Indianapolis Colts (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

I can’t pass up a Gardner Minshew revenge game. Despite all the excitement over Rookie Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew has been quietly playing great football during the games Richardson had to exit due to injury. He’s taking care of the football, completing 69% of his passes and has no interceptions in 83 pass attempts this year. He’s a tough player and now has the opportunity to go back to Jacksonville and show the Jaguars they should have kept him.

Besides Minshew, this Colts team is playing some good football as well, and they’re a team on the rise. As one of the worst teams in the league last year, they sit at 3-2 and have looked great since their Week 1 loss to Jacksonville, beating the Ravens and Titans and taking the Rams to overtime. This is a tough football team, and they’re only getting better.

Now, they have a two-headed rushing attack with Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor returning to form to take some pressure off Minshew. The Jaguars are coming off a huge win against the Bills, and I could see them overlooking this Colts team as they return home from London.

The Jaguars have won eight straight at home vs the Colts, but this streak ends on Sunday when Gardner Minshew returns to town.

Bet: Colts +4 vs. Jaguars (-108)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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