NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here are our top player prop bet picks for Sunday’s slate of NFL action.
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NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Sunday
Kyler Murray OVER 261.5 passing yards (-115)
Murray leads the league in pass attempts (215) and completions (141). He’s averaging only 248.2 passing yards per game, down from 270.5 last year, because he’s slipped from 7.9 yards per attempt in 2021 to 5.7 this year. That number is bound to come up, and it’s a good bet Murray will exceed 5.7 yards per attempt this week against a porous Seattle pass defense that has given up 8.8 yards per attempt this year. Cardinals RB James Conner is dealing with a rib injury and might not play, which could thwart Arizona’s attempt to run the ball effectively and force Murray to throw 40-plus times.
Breece Hall OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Hall’s usage continues to increase. He played 66% of the Jets’ offensive snaps and had 17 carries in Week 4. Hall had a 69% snap share and had 18 carries in Week 5. Expect another week of heavy usage against a run-funnel Green Bay defense. Opponents are running the ball on 50% of their offensive snaps against the Packers, who are giving up 112.4 rushing yards per game.
Diontae Johnson UNDER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Johnson is still adjusting to a post-Roethlisberger landscape. In five games with either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett at quarterback, Johnson is averaging 9.5 yards per catch and 5.3 yards per target — down from 10.9 and 6.9 last season with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. I’m very interested in betting unders involving Johnson these days because rookie RB George Pickens looks like a budding superstar for the Steelers and seems destined to surpass Johnson as Pittsburgh’s top receiver. Johnson also has a difficult matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense allowing 6.7 yards per target to wide receivers. He’s likely to run most of his routes against Tampa CB Jamel Dean, who, as my colleague Derek Brown notes in this week’s installment of The Primer, is allowing a 44% catch rate and a 44.6 passer rating on throws into his coverage.
Saquon Barkley Over 3.5 Receptions (+100)
Saquon Barkley has been Big Blue’s entire offense. The electrifying back is second in rushing yards per game. However, his receiving chops should be on full display this weekend.
First, according to the Betting Pros consensus line, the Giants are 5.5-point underdogs. Therefore, the game script should be negative for Big Blue, leading to passing more often.
Second, Barkley is Big Blue’s headliner in the passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Barkley leads the Giants in routes (125), targets (23) and receptions (18). Barkley’s role has led to at least four targets in four of five games this year. He also had more than 3.5 receptions in New York’s only loss this year.
The matchup is great, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens have faced the second-most pass attempts to running backs per game (8.8) this year. As a result, Baltimore’s allowed an average of 7.2 receptions per game to running backs in 2022. Finally, five running backs have had at least four receptions against the Ravens in a game this year. So, Barkley should be the next to clear that bar, and FantasyPros projects him for 4.3 receptions.
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