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NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

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Call me The Cooler. Call me Mr. Freeze. Give me the icy moniker of your choosing, because I am on a cold streak.

My player prop recommendations went 3-6 last week — a second consecutive losing week that dropped me to .500 on player props for the season.

I need to do better. You aren’t here for juice-losing picks. You’re here for picks that will win you money.

This is a juicy slate, and I feel good about this week’s selections, so let’s get back on the right track.

First, a quick recap of Week 5 …

The wins: Russell Wilson under 224.5 passing yards, D’Andre Swift over 63.5 rushing yards, DeAndre Hopkins over 49.5 receiving yards

The losses: Brock Purdy under 245.5 passing yards, Bijan Robinson over 77.5 rushing yards, Jayle Warren under 29.5 rushing yards, Dalton Kincaid over 27.5 receiving yards, Robert Woods over 41.5 receiving yards, Chris Olave over 62.5 receiving yards

  • Last week: 3-6
  • Season record: 21-21

Here are my favorite selections for Week 6 …

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NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Friday morning.

Gardner Minshew OVER 230.5 passing yards

Revenge game! Minshew faces his old team, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags’ defense has been better against the run (fifth in DVOA) than the pass (13th in DVOA). Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most passing yards and the 10th-most yards per attempt. In 25 career starts, Minshew has averaged 252 passing yards per game.

Joshua Dobbs UNDER 219.5 passing yards

Credit Dobbs for stepping in and being a passable starting quarterback for the Cardinals while Kyler Murray recovers from a torn ACL. But this yardage total is giving him too much credit. Dobbs ranks 27th in yards per attempt and 25th in adjusted completion rate. The Rams’ pass defense has been unexpectedly competent this season, limiting opponents to 206.8 passing yards per game and 6.3 yards per attempt. The Rams have the league’s eighth-lowest opponent passer rating and fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate.

Matthew Stafford OVER 279.5 passing yards

Just as he did in his peak years with the lions, Stafford is raining hellfire upon opponents. He’s averaging 40.6 pass attempts and 290.2 passing yards per game. And to think he’s only had Cooper Kupp for one of his first five games. Now, Stafford can leverage the dynamic duo of Kupp and rookie phenom Puka Nacua. Stafford gets a tasty Week 6 matchup against the Cardinals, who helped Bengals QB Joe Burrow get back on the right track last week after a disappointing first month. The Cardinals are giving up 251.4 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the league. Arizona’s opponent passer rating of 100.5 is seventh-worst in the league.

Zach Wilson UNDER 196.5 passing yards

Wilson has averaged 192.8 passing yards in his four starts this season, and he’s topped 200 yards only once. This week, he faces an Eagles defense that has given up the sixth-most passing yards, but that’s been more about high passing volume against the Eagles than opponents’ passing efficiency. Philadelphia’s opponents have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game but are averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt. Wilson is averaging 32 pass attempts per start and hasn’t thrown 40 passes in a game this season. And of course, the main reason to bet the under here is simple: Wilson is not a good NFL quarterback.

Bijan Robinson OVER 69.5 rushing yards

I’m continuing to bet the over on Bijan’s rushing yardage total every week because I believe he has Hall of Fame talent. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has stubbornly held Bijan to 14 or fewer rushing attempts in 4-of-5 games this season, but I think Bijan can clear this yardage total even if he doesn’t get the 16-20 carries that he should be getting. Bijan faces a below-average Washington run defense. As noted by my colleague Derek Brown in The Primer, the Commanders have allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate while having the fifth-worst stuff rate and fourth-highest yards before contact allowed.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 69.5 rushing yards

McCaffrey is averaging 102 rushing yards per game. He’s averaging 19.8 carries and has logged at least 18 carries in every game. The 49ers will be in Cleveland on Sunday to face the Browns, whose run defense has been good but not great. Cleveland has faced only 69 rushing attempts by RBs this year and have allowed 3.9 yards per carry. The forecast is calling for wind and rain in Cleveland for this game, which would seem to favor a run-heavy game script. So does the Vegas line, which has the 49ers as 10-point favorites against the Browns, who will be without starting QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder).

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 48.5 rushing yards

I refuse to believe that the 25-year-old Stevenson has gone from good to bad in a span of nine months. He was a 1,000-yard runner last year but has averaged only 37.6 rushing yards through New England’s first five games. The Patriots’ offense has been bad, but the running-game woes are fixable. PFF has New England graded 21st in run blocking, which is below average but not awful. I think Stevenson has a good chance to get going this week against a mediocre run defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA and gave up a season-high 76 rushing yards to plodding Packers RB A.J. Dillon last week. The Raiders are allowing 104 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry to RBs.

Kyren Williams UNDER 66.5 rushing yards

Williams has failed to clear this number in 4-of-5 games this season. He had a 25-carry game against the Colts in Week 4, but Williams has had 15 or fewer carries in each of his other four games. He’s averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt this season. Williams faces an Arizona run defense that isn’t very good (26th in DVOA), but Arizona is even worse against the pass (30th in DVOA), so a pass-heavy game script for the Rams is a distinct possibility.

James Cook OVER 56.5 rushing yards

Cook’s rushing yardage total is set at bargain level after a disappointing Week 5 in which he had five carries against the Jaguars for minus-4 yards. Going into that game, Cook had been averaging 14 carries and 74 rushing yards per game. He has a get-right matchup this week against the Giants, whose tackling this season has been comically bad. The Giants are giving up 135.8 rushing yards per game to RBs (second-most in the league behind only the Broncos) and 5.3 yards per attempt. The Bills are massive 15.5-point home favorites in this game, so a run-friendly game script is a near lock.

Zack Moss UNDER 45.5 rushing yards

Last week, in Jonathan Taylor’s first game back from a four-week stay on injured reserve, Moss surprised us with a monster 23-165-2 rushing day against the Titans, while Taylor had a meager 6-18-0 rushing. But Colts head coach Shane Steichen has said Taylor will get more work this week, and the Colts face an underrated Jaguars run defense that ranks fifth in DVOA and is allowing 60.2 rushing yards per game to RBs.

Drake London OVER 44.5 receiving yards

Opponents’ top receivers have been destroying the Commanders this year, and it’s London’s turn to go to town against Washington this week. Chicago’s D.J. Moore shredded the Commanders for 230 yards and three TDs last week. A.J. Brown ripped the Commanders for 175 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4. Stefon Diggs had 111 yards against Washington in Week 3. The talented London isn’t getting as many targets as he should, but he’s averaged 7.5 targets over his last four games and hasn’t seen fewer than six targets in a game over that span. A half-dozen targets should be enough for London to clear this low bar against a truly shabby pass defense.

Jordan Addison OVER 51.5 receiving yards

The rookie has cleared this number in 4-of-5 games, and that was with start WR Justin Jefferson healthy. With Jefferson out, Addison figures to be a focal point of the Minnesota passing game. A wet, windy forecast for Chicago on Sunday is a mild concern, but the matchup is pristine. The Bears rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and are yielding 9.3 yards per target to WRs.

Tyler Higbee UNDER 34.5 receiving yards

With Cooper Kupp back from injured reserve, Higbee slides to fourth or fifth in the Rams’ pecking order for targets behind Kupp, Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell and perhaps RB Kyren Williams. Higbee saw only three targets last week in Kupp’s return and finished with 2-20-0. This week, Higbee faces the Cardinals, who have allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. There’s no reason for opponents to target TEs against Arizona when the Cardinals have so much trouble covering WRs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 73.5 receiving yards

St. Brown will be back in the lineup for Detroit after missing Week 5 with an abdominal injury. Expect him to be especially busy since rookie TE Sam LaPorta is dealing with a calf injury and probably won’t be 100%. St. Brown is averaging 82.8 receiving yards per game and has a juicy matchup against Buccaneers rookie slot corner Christian Izien, an undrafted free agent.

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