NFL Week 6 Predictions & Best Bets: Chiefs vs. Bills (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 6 matchup: Chiefs vs. Bills.
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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chiefs vs. Bills
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Check out our Bills at Chiefs matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
Bills at Chiefs: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 54
- Moneyline: Bills -145, Chiefs +125
Bills at Chiefs: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Chiefs – 66% bets, 69% money
- Over/Under: Under – 15% bets, 42% money
- Moneyline: Bills – 36% bets, 53% money
Bills at Chiefs: Injuries
Bills: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | DNP |
| Rodger Saffold | G | Vet Rest | DNP |
| Taiwan Jones | RB | Knee | DNP |
| Christian Benford | CB | Hand | LP |
| DaQuan Jones | DE | Hip | LP |
| Dawson Knox | TE | Foot/Hamstring | LP |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Hamstring | LP |
| Jordan Poyer | FS | Ribs | LP |
| Kaiir Elam | CB | Foot | LP |
| Mitch Morse | C | Elbow | LP |
| Tremaine Edmunds | MLB | Hamstring | LP |
| Von Miller | OLB | Ret Rest | LP |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | FP |
| Ed Oliver | DT | Ankle | FP |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | Concussion | FP |
Bills: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | IR |
| Tommy Doyle | T | IR |
| Micah Hyde | S | IR |
| Marquez Stevenson | WR | IR |
| Ike Boettger | G | PUP |
| Tre’Davious White | CB | PUP |
| Andre Smith | LB | Suspended |
Chiefs: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Bryan Cook | SAF | Concussion | DNP |
| Rashad Fenton | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Chris Lammons | DB | Hip | DNP |
| Tershawn Wharton | DE | Knee | DNP |
| Harrison Butker | K | Left Ankle | LP |
| Frank Clark | DE | Illness | LP |
| Michael Danna | DE | Calf | LP |
| Travis Kelce | TE | Hip/Back | FP |
| Nick Bolton | LB | Quad | FP |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | Heel | FP |
| Skyy Moore | WR | Ankle | FP |
| Trey Smith | G | Pectoral | FP |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Hamstring/Quad | FP |
Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | IR-Return |
| Blake Bell | TE | IR |
| Justyn Ross | WR | IR |
| Lucas Niang | OL | PUP |
| Jerrion Ealy | WR/RB | Suspended |
| Willie Gay | LB | Suspended |
Bills at Chiefs: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Bills Trends
- 2022 Bills: 3-2 ATS (13.9% ROI)
- QB Josh Allen: 19-10-2 ATS (24.3% ROI)
Chiefs Trends
- 2022 Chiefs: 2-3 ATS (16.4% ROI for faders)
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 6-2 ML (89.3% ROI) as underdog
- QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-17-1 ATS (6.1% ROI for faders) at home
- HC Andy Reid: 3-1 ATS (45.3% ROI) vs. Josh Allen
Bills at Chiefs: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.18 | 2 | 0.038 | 17 | 15 |
| Total SR | 50.2% | 2 | 46.2% | 23 | 21 |
| Total DVOA | 14.9% | 7 | 3.3% | 15 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.327 | 1 | 0.086 | 19 | 18 |
| Dropback SR | 54.9% | 1 | 47.4% | 21 | 20 |
| Pass DVOA | 40.6% | 3 | 11.5% | 19 | 16 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 8 | 7.8% | 10 | 2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.206 | 28 | -0.076 | 14 | -14 |
| Rush SR | 37.8% | 24 | 43.4% | 20 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -24.2% | 30 | -12.6% | 8 | -22 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.95 | 28 | 4.37 | 13 | -15 |
| Yards per Play | 6.7 | 1 | 5.3 | 11 | 10 |
| Points per Game | 30.4 | 2 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
Chiefs Offense vs. Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.212 | 1 | -0.144 | 2 | 1 |
| Total SR | 50.6% | 1 | 42.6% | 11 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 18.6% | 3 | -21.8% | 2 | -1 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.322 | 2 | -0.154 | 2 | 0 |
| Dropback SR | 54.8% | 2 | 45.4% | 17 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 37.3% | 4 | -21.5% | 6 | 2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.8% | 9 | 8.6% | 7 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | 0.004 | 9 | -0.126 | 9 | 0 |
| Rush SR | 42.7% | 13 | 36.9% | 9 | -4 |
| Rush DVOA | -8.1% | 19 | -22.3% | 3 | -16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.39 | 18 | 3.32 | 1 | -17 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 4.4 | 2 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 31.8 | 1 | 12.2 | 1 | 0 |
Bills at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Josh Allen
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.196 | 1 |
| AY/A | 8.8 | 3 |
| QBR | 78.5 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 6.3 | 1 |
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.2
- QB Elo per Game: 67.6
2022: Patrick Mahomes
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.193 | 2 |
| AY/A | 8.5 | 4 |
| QBR | 78.5 | 2 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 4.8 | 2 |
Career: Patrick Mahomes
- AY/A: 8.7
- QB Elo per Game: 117.9
Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills Pass Defense
TE Travis Kelce is one of my Week 6 fantasy favorites, and I think he’s the key to this game for the Chiefs.
With a rebuilt wide receiver unit, Kelce has predictably been the top pass catcher for the Chiefs, ranking No. 1 on the team with 42 targets and 33-347-7 receiving. Instead of pushing the ball downfield this year, QB Patrick Mahomes has taken what the defense has given him, meticulously moving the ball with a ruthless efficiency — and it’s hard to argue with the results, as the Chiefs rank No. 1 in offensive EPA per play (0.212) and total SR (50.6%) as well as points per game (31.8).
And Kelce has been a big driver of the Chiefs’ “break them by bending them†offensive approach. With his pass-catching dominance, he’s basically a middle-of-the-field cheat code — and I think he could go off against the Bills secondary.
As good as the Bills defense is, it has been perfectly content this year to allow opposing offenses to move down the field play by play via the passing game — and that’s a major strength of the Chiefs.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Dropback SR | 54.8% | 2 | 45.4% | 17 | 15 |
If the Bills invite Mahomes to target receivers on non-contested short and intermediate routes, he’ll do it all game long — and that means a lot of Kelce.
At least it meant that last year, when Kelce had 14-153-2 receiving on 19 targets against the Bills in two games.
And the Bills pass defense isn’t even close to full strength. In the past, No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP) has sometimes matched up with Kelce, but he won’t be active for this game as he continues to work his way back from injury.
On top of that, FS Micah Hyde (neck, IR) is out and SS Jordan Poyer (ribs), CB Christian Benford (hand) and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are uncertain after missing Week 5.
With Kelce operating against an injured pass defense, I think the Chiefs will pull off the upset.
Best Line: Chiefs +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chiefs +1 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Chiefs -1
Limit: Chiefs +1
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