NFL Week 6 Predictions & Best Bets: Packers vs. Jets (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 6 matchup: Packers vs. Jets.
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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Packers vs. Jets
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Check out our Jets at Packers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: Lambeau Field
- TV: FOX
Jets at Packers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Packers -7
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Moneyline: Packers -335, Jets +260
Jets at Packers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Jets – 55% bets, 64% money
- Over/Under: Under – 22% bets, 23% money
- Moneyline: Jets – 14% bets, 26% money
Jets at Packers: Injuries
Jets: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jermaine Johnson II | DE | Ankle | DNP |
| Duane Brown | OT | Shoulder | LP |
| Carl Lawson | OLB | Ankle | LP |
| C.J. Mosley | ILB | Hip | LP |
| Quincy Williams | ILB | Ankle | LP |
Jets: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Nick Bawden | FB | IR |
| Mekhi Becton | T | IR |
| Vinny Curry | DL | IR |
| George Fant | T | IR |
| Max Mitchell | OL | IR |
| Greg Senat | OL | NFI |
Packers: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Tipa Galeai | LB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | Right Thumb | DNP |
| Christian Watson | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| David Bakhtiari | OT | Knee | LP |
| Elgton Jenkins | G | Knee | LP |
| Devonte Wyatt | DT | Quadricep | LP |
Packers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Krys Barnes | LB | IR |
| Sammy Watkins | WR | IR |
| Caleb Jones | T | NFI |
| Kylin Hill | RB | PUP |
Jets at Packers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jets Trends
- 2022 Jets: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI)
- HC Robert Saleh: 8-13 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) as underdog
Packers Trends
- 2022 Packers: 2-3 ATS (14.6% ROI for faders)
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 40-21-1 ATS (28.2% ROI) off loss
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 66-35-3 ATS (26.5% ROI) at home
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 97-66-3 ATS (16.1% ROI) as favorite
Jets at Packers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jets Offense vs. Packers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.034 | 23 | 0.034 | 16 | -7 |
| Total SR | 41.1% | 25 | 46.8% | 26 | 1 |
| Total DVOA | -3.5% | 21 | 7.1% | 23 | 2 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.037 | 24 | 0.019 | 10 | -14 |
| Dropback SR | 42.8% | 23 | 43.9% | 13 | -10 |
| Pass DVOA | 1.6% | 19 | 2.2% | 11 | -8 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.6% | 16 | 8.2% | 8 | -8 |
| Rush EPA | -0.026 | 17 | 0.052 | 28 | 11 |
| Rush SR | 37.4% | 27 | 50.4% | 32 | 5 |
| Rush DVOA | -0.7% | 14 | 12.4% | 30 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.27 | 21 | 5.26 | 31 | 10 |
| Yards per Play | 5.2 | 21 | 5.5 | 14 | -7 |
| Points per Game | 23.2 | 11 | 19.2 | 11 | 0 |
Packers Offense vs. Jets Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.02 | 14 | 0.043 | 19 | 5 |
| Total SR | 48.3% | 5 | 46.1% | 22 | 17 |
| Total DVOA | 13.4% | 8 | 5.4% | 21 | 13 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.039 | 18 | 0.109 | 23 | 5 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 11 | 46.2% | 18 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.9% | 13 | 13.9% | 23 | 10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 13 | 7.1% | 11 | -2 |
| Rush EPA | -0.006 | 10 | -0.051 | 18 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 48.9% | 2 | 45.8% | 25 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 12.4% | 3 | -4.7% | 19 | 16 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.23 | 2 | 4.35 | 10 | 8 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 12 | 5.2 | 9 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 19.4 | 22 | 23.6 | 18 | -4 |
Jets at Packers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Zach Wilson
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | N/A | N/A |
| AY/A | N/A | N/A |
| QBR | N/A | N/A |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.3 | 36 |
Career: Zach Wilson
- AY/A: 5.5
- QB Elo per Game: -120.9
2022: Aaron Rodgers
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.089 | 12 |
| AY/A | 7 | 14 |
| QBR | 44.6 | 20 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.8 | 5 |
Career: Aaron Rodgers
- AY/A: 8.4
- QB Elo per Game: 81.7
Key Matchup: Packers Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
QB Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for the Jets in his two starts this year (6.9 AY/A) — but this is a comedown spot for the Jets and a bounceback spot for the Packers, who have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
| Rank | Quarterback | Offense | Opp Defense | Defense Rank | Secondary Rank | QB-Def Edge | QB-Sec Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | GB | 8 | 4 | -18 | -22 |
And that same edge is extended against his pass catchers …
| Rank | WRs & TEs | Opp Secondary | Secondary Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | NYJ | GB | 4 | -14 |
… and also his offensive line, which is down three tackles: Mekhi Becton (knee, IR), George Fant (knee, IR) and Max Mitchell (knee, IR).
| Rank | Offensive Line | Opp DL | DL Rank | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | NYJ | GB | 6 | -22 |
Under steady pressure from EDGEs Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, Wilson seems likely to regress toward his 2021 form this week.
Best Line: Packers -7 (-115, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection: Packers -9
Limit: Packers -7 (-120)
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