NFL Week 6 Predictions & Best Bets: Patriots vs. Browns (2022)
We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here’s a closer look at the NFL Week 6 matchup: Patriots vs. Browns.
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NFL Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Patriots vs. Browns
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
Check out our Patriots at Browns matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
- TV: CBS
Patriots at Browns: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Browns -3
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Moneyline: Browns -150, Patriots +126
Patriots at Browns: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12
- Spread: Browns – 37% bets, 50% money
- Over/Under: Over – 75% bets, 84% money
- Moneyline: Browns – 40% bets, 60% money
Patriots at Browns: Injuries
Patriots: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| David Andrews | C | Back | LP |
| Lawrence Guy | DE | Shoulder | LP |
| Damien Harris | RB | Hamstring | LP |
| Jonathan Jones | CB | Ankle | LP |
| Mac Jones | QB | Ankle | LP |
| Raekwon McMillan | MLB | Thumb | LP |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Knee | LP |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| DaMarcus Mitchell | DE | Concussion | LP |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Ankle | LP |
Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Yodny Cajuste | OL | IR |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | IR |
| Ty Montgomery | RB | IR |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | IR |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | IR |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | IR |
| Quinn Nordin | K | NFI |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | NFI |
| Malcolm Perry | WR | Retired |
| James White | RB | Retired |
Browns: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Joel Bitonio | G | Elbow | DNP |
| Jadeveon Clowney | DE | Ankle, Knee, Elbow | DNP |
| Amari Cooper | WR | Not Injury Related – Rest | DNP |
| Ronnie Harrison | DB | Illness | DNP |
| Denzel Ward | CB | Concussion | DNP |
| Taven Bryan | DT | Hamstring | LP |
| Myles Garrett | DE | Shoulder, Biceps, Hand | LP |
| Perrion Winfrey | DT | Ankle | LP |
| Demetric Felton | RB | Wrist | FP |
Browns: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Deion Jones | MLB | IR-Return |
| Greedy Williams | CB | IR-Return |
| Dawson Deaton | G | IR |
| Jerome Ford | RB | IR |
| Jakeem Grant Sr. | WR | IR |
| Nick Harris | C | IR |
| Jesse James | TE | IR |
| Chris Odom | DE | IR |
| Anthony Walker Jr. | LB | IR |
| Stephen Weatherly | DE | IR |
| Isaiah Weston | WR | IR |
| Chase Winovich | DE | IR |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Suspended |
Patriots at Browns: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Patriots Trends
- 2022 Patriots: 2-2-1 ATS (-3% ROI)
- HC Bill Belichick: 6-2 ATS (46.2% ROI) in #RevengeGame vs. Browns
- HC Bill Belichick: 26-13-2 ATS (29.6% ROI) as road underdog
Browns Trends
- 2022 Browns: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
- HC Kevin Stefanski: 8-16 ATS (28.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
Patriots at Browns: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Patriots Offense vs. Browns Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.014 | 15 | 0.123 | 30 | 15 |
| Total SR | 47.5% | 7 | 44.7% | 18 | 11 |
| Total DVOA | -4.5% | 22 | 13.9% | 30 | 8 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.019 | 23 | 0.078 | 15 | -8 |
| Dropback SR | 47.9% | 11 | 43.4% | 10 | -1 |
| Pass DVOA | -2.9% | 26 | 8.6% | 16 | -10 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.3% | 21 | 5.8% | 22 | 1 |
| Rush EPA | 0.055 | 2 | 0.191 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 6 | 46.7% | 29 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 20.5% | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 5.32 | 32 | 29 |
| Yards per Play | 5.8 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 16 |
| Points per Game | 20.6 | 19 | 25 | 23 | 4 |
Browns Offense vs. Patriots Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.129 | 3 | -0.047 | 9 | 6 |
| Total SR | 46.9% | 10 | 45.2% | 20 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 16.3% | 4 | -3.6% | 9 | 5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.103 | 10 | -0.11 | 9 | -1 |
| Dropback SR | 46.8% | 17 | 41.9% | 6 | -11 |
| Pass DVOA | 23.7% | 10 | -11.5% | 8 | -2 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 3.9% | 4 | 8.2% | 9 | 5 |
| Rush EPA | 0.157 | 1 | 0.048 | 27 | 26 |
| Rush SR | 47.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 30 | 25 |
| Rush DVOA | 15.4% | 1 | 6.7% | 28 | 27 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.90 | 6 | 4.65 | 21 | 15 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 12 | 5.5 | 14 | 2 |
| Points per Game | 26.6 | 6 | 19.6 | 12 | 6 |
Patriots at Browns: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Bailey Zappe
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | N/A | N/A |
| AY/A | N/A | N/A |
| QBR | N/A | N/A |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -3.4 | 39 |
Career: Bailey Zappe
- AY/A: 7.8
- QB Elo per Game: -28.4
2022: Jacoby Brissett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.12 | 8 |
| AY/A | 6.4 | 19 |
| QBR | 65.9 | 6 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.2 | 19 |
Career: Jacoby Brissett
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -29.9
Key Matchup: RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Browns Defense
In a game with two teams that want to run the ball, the Browns have the worse rush defense — and that’s because they have the league’s worst rush defense.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are top-six in most run efficiency metrics.
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| Rush EPA | 0.055 | 2 | 0.191 | 32 | 30 |
| Rush SR | 47.0% | 6 | 46.7% | 29 | 23 |
| Rush DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 20.5% | 32 | 21 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 5.07 | 3 | 5.32 | 32 | 29 |
RB Damien Harris (hamstring) — despite “practicing†limitedly on Wednesday — is highly unlikely to play this weekend …
… but his absence probably won’t matter given that the Patriots still have RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has been the leader in the backfield for the past month with a 55% snap rate in each game.
In that time, Stevenson is 60-347-1 rushing and also a nice 11-69-0 receiving on 14 targets. A three-down back, Stevenson is likely to see consistent checkdowns from third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe — and the Browns are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (35.1%).
On the ground and through the air, Stevenson could dominate the Browns.
Last week, Stevenson went off with 175 yards on 25 carries and two targets with a 90% snap rate, and in his six career games with at least 15 opportunities (carries plus targets) he has averaged 110.7 yards and 0.83 touchdowns.
With Stevenson carrying the Patriots, they should be able to slow down the game and keep the score close.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (-114, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Patriots +1.75
Limit: Patriots +3 (-120)
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