NFL Week 6 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)
This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 6.
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Week 6 Spread Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Home Spread | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| CHI | WAS | 1 | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI | CHI |
| MIA | MIN | 1 | MIA | MIN | MIA | MIN | MIN |
| CLE | NE | -3 | NE | NE | NE | CLE | NE |
| ATL | SF | 6 | ATL | ATL | ATL | SF | SF |
| NO | CIN | 1 | CIN | CIN | CIN | NO | CIN |
| GB | NYJ | -7.5 | GB | GB | GB | GB | NYJ |
| IND | JAX | -1.5 | JAX | IND | JAX | JAX | JAX |
| PIT | TB | 8 | PIT | PIT | PIT | TB | TB |
| NYG | BAL | 5.5 | BAL | NYG | BAL | NYG | NYG |
| SEA | ARI | 2.5 | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA | SEA |
| LAR | CAR | -9 | LAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | LAR |
| KC | BUF | 1.5 | KC | KC | KC | KC | BUF |
| PHI | DAL | -5.5 | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| LAC | DEN | -6.5 | LAC | DEN | LAC | DEN | DEN |
KC +2.5 vs. BUF
The Browns missed the playoffs last year with an 8-9 record, and road underdogs who missed the postseason in the prior year are 73-46-4 ATS in Week 1 (since 2003), and I think that makes sense: The market is often too low on road teams and underdogs, and recency bias probably causes the market to undervalue non-playoff teams in Week 1. As for Panthers HC Matt Rhule, he’s 1-6 ATS and on the moneyline as a home favorite. With CBs Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome and Greedy Williams, the Browns have the cover men to slow down former QB Baker Mayfield’s new wide receivers in Carolina.
– Matthew Freedman
ATL +5.5 vs SF
While the 49ers do have the best defense in the league by EPA, some of that might have to do with schedule. Only one of their five previous opponents (Seattle) ranks above 24th in offensive EPA. Combine this with cluster injuries at defensive line and defensive back, and you can start to see scenarios where the Falcons and their 15th-ranked offense are able to move the ball effectively enough to keep things close at home. My model, which isn’t even aware of the injuries, lines this game 3, making 5.5 extremely attractive.
– Robby Greer
JAX ML vs IND +110
The Jaguars destroyed the Colts 24-0 just a month ago. What’s changed since then? Nothing. The Colts rank dead last in offensive EPA, scoring the fewest points per drive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are covering the spread by 8.6 points per game, the 2nd most in the league. There’s no need to take the spread here; the Jaguars should be favorites. I’ll take them at plus odds.
– Ben Wolbransky
WAS @ CHI +1
This is a matchup of two struggling teams on both sides of the ball. The main difference between the two is that the Bears’ rebuild was obvious heading into the season. Meanwhile, the Commanders signed Carson Wentz to be competitive this year, and the wheels are starting to fall off, especially after Rivera threw the QB under the bus earlier this week. The Bears’ offense finally started to show some signs of life last week after Fields’ best performance of the season, finishing with a 118.8 QB rating. Wentz has six interceptions on the season, trailing only Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford.
– Dylan Santora
LAR -9.5 vs CAR
While it’s true that the Rams have been underwhelming to kick off the 2022 season, the Carolina Panthers are in complete disarray, firing HC Matt Rhule after just 5 weeks. The Panthers’ offense was already one of the worst in the league, putting up the fewest yards in the NFL and ranking 5th worst in points scored per possession, and they will be playing this Sunday with PJ Walker under center in place of the injured Baker Mayfield. I expect for the Rams’ defense to dominate this matchup, generating turnovers and setting up their offense in favorable field possession. Look for the Rams’ offense to get right against one of the worst teams in the NFL, who might also be without star CB Jaycee Horn due to injury.
– Austin MacMillan
Week 6 Total Leans for Each Game
| Home Team | Away Team | Over/Under | Fitzmaurice | Freedman | Wolbransky | Santora | MacMillan |
| CHI | WAS | 39.5 | Over | Over | Under | Under | Under |
| MIA | MIN | 46 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| CLE | NE | 42 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| ATL | SF | 42 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| NO | CIN | 44 | Over | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| GB | NYJ | 44.5 | Under | Over | Over | Under | Under |
| IND | JAX | 41 | Over | Under | Under | Under | Over |
| PIT | TB | 43.5 | Over | Under | Under | Over | Under |
| NYG | BAL | 43.5 | Under | Under | Over | Under | Under |
| SEA | ARI | 50.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| LAR | CAR | 42 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| KC | BUF | 53.5 | Under | Over | Under | Under | Over |
| PHI | DAL | 43.5 | Under | Under | Over | Over | Over |
| LAC | DEN | 46.5 | Under | Over | Under | Over | Under |
NYJ @ GB Over 45.5
Since week 4 (when Zach Wilson came back), the Packers and the Jets rank 12th and 13th, respectively, in offensive EPA. Both teams are averaging game totals of 50 in that same time span. This is a middle-of-the-road line for two slightly above-average offenses.
– Ben Wolbransky
DAL @ PHI Over 42.0
This matchup pits the undefeated Eagles against the 4-1 Cowboys, who are undefeated with Cooper Rush as the starter. Both defenses have played extremely well, each averaging 13.25 points allowed over the last four weeks. That said, the offenses are clicking, and I think they have a slight edge this week. Particularly, the Eagles’ offense that is averaging well over 400 yards of offense and 27 points per game. After a 3-point dud opening night, the Cowboys haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in the last four weeks.
– Dylan Santora
ARI @ SEA Over 50.5
Seattle’s offense has been a pleasant surprise in 2022, as the Seahawks rank 1st in the league in rushing yards per attempt, 3rd in the league in net yards per pass attempt, and 5th in the league in points scored per possession, where 45% of their offensive drives are converted to points. Their offensive success should continue in Week 6, as Arizona’s defense surrenders the 3rd most points per possession in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Cardinals should be able to exploit the weak Seattle defense however they choose to, as Seattle ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in both passing and rushing yards allowed per attempt, allowing the most points per possession of any team in the NFL. The final score will comfortably surpass the point total as these two poverty defenses struggle to contain the opposing offense.
– Austin MacMillan
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