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NFL Week 6 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Another positive 2-1 week is in the books. The only loss came at the hands, and apparently much healthier calf, of Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Without Tee Higgins, Burrow leaned on Ja'Marr Chase, targeting him an absurd 19 times for 15 catches, 192 yards and three touchdowns!

We've been focused on backing the under, but this week, we're changing it up a bit and like two games to go over the total on Sunday.

Let's get to the picks.

Week 6 Totals Picks

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars - O/U 44.5

First place in the AFC South is on the line in this game. These two teams met back in Week 1, with the Jaguars spoiling the debut of Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson 31-21 thanks to a balanced Jacksonville attack. Richardson will miss the rematch due to a shoulder injury that has landed him on injured reserve. That means backup Gardner Minshew gets the start for the Colts. The sixth-round pick out of Washington State began his career with the Jags, so this is a little bit of a revenge game for the signal caller.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are riding high after knocking off Buffalo in London, England, last week. Jacksonville has put up at least 23 points in each of their three wins, and I like them to win again on Sunday, sweeping the season series and taking sole possession of first in the division. Travis Etienne finally broke out against Buffalo with 136 yards and two touchdowns, and I expect him to carry that momentum into this week’s game. While this matchup probably won’t go well over the number, backing the over is the better play here.

The Pick: Over 44.5 (-105)

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - O/U 42.5

Is this the year the Lions finally get to the Super Bowl? Probably not, thanks to the fact they’ll have to deal with Philadelphia or San Francisco (or both) to get there. However, the NFC North is theirs to lose, as they already own a two-game lead over Green Bay and won their first head-to-head matchup with the Packers in Week 4. Detroit travels to Tampa this week and should get their top receiver, Amon Ra St. Brown, back after the stud wideout missed last week’s 42-24 win over Carolina. This offense is rolling, and the Bucs defense is not good enough to stop it.

Tampa Bay is coming off an early bye week and should be able to move the ball even if their No. 1 receiver, Mike Evans, doesn’t suit up. The nine-year veteran is nursing a hamstring injury and was not at practice Wednesday. If Evans is unable to go, Chris Godwin is more than capable of stepping up into the role of top target for Baker Mayfield. The quarterback is coming off his best game of the season, throwing three touchdowns and just one pick in a 26-9 thrashing of New Orleans. This game should be more of an up-and-down-the-field affair.

The Pick: Over 42.5 (-112)

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans - O/U 41.5

We can’t go a week without backing at least one under! These two teams have gone under the total in three of their last four meetings. The total in Titans’ games has gone under in eight of their last 10. Baltimore has also gone under in seven of their last 10. The Ravens are coming off a frustrating 17-10 loss to Pittsburgh with three turnovers, while the Titans dropped a close one to Indianapolis, 23-16.

Titans superstar running back Derrick Henry has started showing signs of slowing down. Gone are the days of 30+ carries and 200+ yards, with only one game over 80 yards rushing this season. DeAndre Hopkins was supposed to come in and relieve some of the pressure off of the Titans’ running game, and he finally did that last week. Unfortunately, he’ll be facing a Baltimore defense that, while it isn’t the 2000 Ravens with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company, is still second in the league in points allowed at 15 per game. Expect this to be a physical, ground-and-pound type game that ends up under the total.

The Pick: Under 41.5 (-115)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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