NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Steelers (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Dolphins vs. Steelers.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Dolphins vs. Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Check out our Steelers at Dolphins matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: NBC
Steelers at Dolphins: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Dolphins -7
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -335, Steelers +270
Steelers at Dolphins: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Dolphins – 56% bets, 74% money
- Over/Under: Over – 32% bets, 56% money
- Moneyline: Steelers – 46% bets, 77% money
Steelers at Dolphins: Injuries
Steelers: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Larry Ogunjobi | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Steven Sims | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Mason Cole | OL | Foot, Ankle | LP |
| James Daniels | OL | Ankle | LP |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | Knee | LP |
| Myles Jack | LB | Ankle | LP |
| Cam Sutton | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | CB | Hamstring | LP |
| Chris Wormley | DL | Ankle | LP |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | Concussion | FP |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | Concussion | FP |
| Levi Wallace | CB | Concussion | FP |
Steelers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Calvin Austin III | WR | IR |
| Karl Joseph | S | IR |
| Damontae Kazee | S | IR |
| DeMarvin Leal | DE | IR |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | IR |
| Anthony Miller | WR | IR |
| Carlins Platel | DB | IR |
| T.J. Watt | LB | IR |
Dolphins: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe | DNP |
| Keion Crossen | DB | Knee | DNP |
| Melvin Ingram | OLB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | DNP |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Back | DNP |
| Christian Wilkins | DE | Hand | DNP |
| Jerome Baker | ILB | Hip | LP |
| Xavien Howard | CB | Not Injury Related – Vet Rest | LP |
| Kader Kohou | CB | Oblique | LP |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Knee | LP |
| Zach Sieler | DE | Hand | LP |
| Durham Smythe | TE | Hamstring | LP |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | R. Thumb | LP |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Shoulder | LP |
| Elijah Campbell | DB | Foot | FP |
| Tanner Conner | TE | Knee | FP |
| Greg Little | OT | Achilles | FP |
Dolphins: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Cethan Carter | TE | IR |
| Trey Flowers | LB | IR |
| Austin Jackson | OL | IR |
| John Lovett | FB | IR |
| Nik Needham | CB | IR |
| Adam Shaheen | TE | IR |
| Trill Williams | CB | IR |
| Byron Jones | CB | PUP |
Steelers at Dolphins: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Steelers Trends
- 2022 Steelers: 2-3-1 ATS (12.4% ROI for faders)
- HC Mike Tomlin: 47-25-3 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
- HC Mike Tomlin: 39-36 ML (34.9% ROI) as underdog
Dolphins Trends
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-3 ATS (-4.1% ROI)
- 2022 Dolphins: 3-0 ATS (91.8% ROI) in QB Tua Tagovailoa’s three full starts
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-3 ATS (47.3% ROI) at home
Steelers at Dolphins: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Steelers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.069 | 25 | 0.068 | 28 | 3 |
| Total SR | 42.5% | 22 | 46.6% | 26 | 4 |
| Total DVOA | -8.1% | 24 | 8.3% | 25 | 1 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.07 | 27 | 0.184 | 29 | 2 |
| Dropback SR | 43.5% | 22 | 51.7% | 29 | 7 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 20 | 23.4% | 31 | 11 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.7% | 11 | 6.5% | 18 | 7 |
| Rush EPA | -0.068 | 22 | -0.139 | 6 | -16 |
| Rush SR | 40.5% | 19 | 37.6% | 9 | -10 |
| Rush DVOA | -21.4% | 31 | -13.4% | 7 | -24 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.10 | 26 | 3.78 | 4 | -22 |
| Yards per Play | 4.8 | 29 | 5.9 | 25 | -4 |
| Points per Game | 16.2 | 30 | 25.8 | 27 | -3 |
Dolphins Offense vs. Steelers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.048 | 12 | 0.053 | 22 | 10 |
| Total SR | 46.2% | 11 | 44.8% | 19 | 8 |
| Total DVOA | 12.7% | 6 | 0.5% | 15 | 9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.111 | 9 | 0.077 | 16 | 7 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 9 | 47.8% | 24 | 15 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.8% | 5 | 8.1% | 17 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 7.4% | 19 | 6.1% | 23 | 4 |
| Rush EPA | -0.079 | 23 | 0.011 | 27 | 4 |
| Rush SR | 41.3% | 14 | 39.6% | 13 | -1 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.6% | 15 | -10.1% | 10 | -5 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.07 | 28 | 4.11 | 7 | -21 |
| Yards per Play | 6.1 | 5 | 5.7 | 20 | 15 |
| Points per Game | 21.8 | 17 | 24.3 | 23 | 6 |
Steelers at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Kenny Pickett
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| AY/A | 4.3 | 34 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.2 | 28 |
Career: Kenny Pickett
- AY/A: 4.3
- QB Elo per Game: 1.9
2022: Tua Tagovailoa
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.188 | 2 |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 1 |
| QBR | 80 | 1 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.7 | 14 |
Career: Tua Tagovailoa
- AY/A: 6.8
- QB Elo per Game: -5.0
Key Matchup: Dolphins Pass Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense
Come on. QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and is ready to return to action, so I think this line is way off, and I believe that I’ve shown remarkable restraint in getting my projection down to “only†Dolphins -7.75.
In my first set of Week 7 projections, I had this number WAY higher — I don’t even want to say how high, because it will make you question my entire process — but I’m high on the Dolphins because I am buying Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins have had a top-10 pass offense this year, and that’s with QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson playing most of the past three weeks.
| Metric | Offense | Rank |
| Dropback EPA | 0.111 | 9 |
| Dropback SR | 48.6% | 9 |
| Pass DVOA | 32.8% | 5 |
Nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson — but they’re not Tagovailoa, who has been a legitimate top-tier quarterback this year.
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.188 | 2 |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 1 |
| QBR | 80 | 1 |
Granted, he has had limited action — but so have Bridgewater and Thompson, and in a head-to-head comparison Tagovailoa massively outshines them.
| Statistic | Tua Tagovailoa |
Bridgewater & Thompson
|
| Attempts | 115 | 106 |
| Completion Rate | 69.6% | 59.4% |
| AY/A | 9.2 | 6.2 |
| TD Rate | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| INT Rate | 2.6% | 3.8% |
| Sack Rate | 5.0% | 7.8% |
It’s not just that HC Mike McDaniel has a good offensive system, although he certainly does — and that has contributed to Tagovailoa’s third-year progress.
And it’s not just that whoever throws the ball for the Dolphins has the benefit of throwing to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (and I guess also TE Mike Gesicki).
Tagovailoa has clearly outperformed his backups and played at a high level in 2022 — and that’s not surprising given everything we know about him to this point.
Tagovailoa was the No. 1 quarterback in his recruitment class. He won a come-from-behind off-the-bench championship at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was one of the best college quarterbacks we’ve ever seen. He was selected No. 5 overall — and he fell that far only because of a catastrophic and career-threatening hip injury. And then he had an understandably uneven adjustment to the NFL in his first two seasons as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator incompetence and rollover in Miami.
Based on that information, we should probably take Tagovailoa’s 2022 production at close to face value: He’s playing like a good quarterback because he’s probably a good quarterback — far better than his backups — and his absence in Weeks 4-6 highlights just how much his presence in Weeks 1-3 meant to the team.
| Stat | Weeks 1-3 | Weeks 4-6 |
| Points per Game | 27.7 | 16.0 |
| Win-Loss Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| ATS Record | 3-0 | 0-3 |
Relative to his backups, Tagovailoa (I now think) is worth quite a bit to the spread — far more than whatever is implied in my conservative projection of Dolphins -7.75 — so I expect the Dolphins to outperform expectations, especially against a Steelers pass defense that is injured.
Last week, the Steelers were without four starters in their secondary: CBs Cameron Sutton (hamstring), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and Levi Wallace (concussion) and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee).
Even if all those guys return, they won’t be at full health — and that’s not taking into account the absence of All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR) and possible absence of DT Larry Ogunjobi (knee), who missed practice on Wednesday.
Against a Steelers pass defense that is mediocre at best …
| Metric | Defense | Rank |
| Dropback EPA | 0.077 | 16 |
| Dropback SR | 47.8% | 24 |
| Pass DVOA | 8.1% | 17 |
… the Dolphins should be able to move the ball through the air, especially at home.
Best Line: Dolphins -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Dolphins -7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -7.75
Limit: Dolphins -7
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