NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Giants vs. Jaguars (2022)
In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update. Here is my pick for Giants vs. Jaguars.
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Giants vs. Jaguars
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
Check out our Giants at Jaguars matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: TIAA Bank Field
- TV: FOX
Giants at Jaguars: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Jaguars -3
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Moneyline: Jaguars -165, Giants +140
Giants at Jaguars: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19
- Spread: Jaguars – 35% bets, 49% money
- Over/Under: Under – 47% bets, 74% money
- Moneyline: Giants – 50% bets, 75% money
Giants at Jaguars: Injuries
Giants: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Cordale Flott | CB | Calf | DNP |
| Kenny Golladay | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Jason Pinnock | CB | Ankle | DNP |
| Kadarius Toney | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Oshane Ximines | OLB | Quad | DNP |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | Shoulder | LP |
| Jon Feliciano | C | Groin | LP |
| Azeez Ojulari | LB | Calf | LP |
| Andrew Thomas | OT | Elbow | LP |
Giants: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Darrian Beavers | ILB | IR |
| D.J. Davidson | DL | IR |
| Tony Jefferson | S | IR |
| Collin Johnson | WR | IR |
| Shane Lemieux | G | IR |
| Marcus McKethan | OL | IR |
| Aaron Robinson | CB | IR |
| Sterling Shepard | WR | IR |
| Elerson Smith | OLB | IR |
| Rodarius Williams | CB | IR |
| Nick Gates | C | PUP |
| Matt Peart | T | PUP |
Jaguars: Week 6 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | Knee | DNP |
| Shaquill Griffin | CB | Back | DNP |
| Foley Fatukasi | DE | Quadricep | LP |
| DaVon Hamilton | NT | Foot | LP |
| Marvin Jones | WR | Hamstring | LP |
| Foye Oluokun | OLB | Calf | LP |
Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Ben Bartch | OL | IR |
| K’Lavon Chaisson | OLB | IR |
| Jordan Smith | OLB | IR |
Giants at Jaguars: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Giants Trends
- 2022 Giants: 5-1 ATS (60.5% ROI)
- QB Daniel Jones: 13-6 ATS (32.4% ROI) on road
- QB Daniel Jones: 21-13 ATS (18.9% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 12-4 ATS (45.1% ROI) as road underdog
Jaguars Trends
- 2022 Jaguars: 2-4 ATS (26.2% ROI for faders)
- QB Trevor Lawrence: 7-16 ATS (32.7% ROI for faders)
Giants at Jaguars: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Giants Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.053 | 8 | -0.047 | 9 | 1 |
| Total SR | 43.8% | 18 | 41.3% | 6 | -12 |
| Total DVOA | 5.5% | 13 | -2.1% | 10 | -3 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.092 | 11 | -0.03 | 9 | -2 |
| Dropback SR | 46.0% | 17 | 44.1% | 11 | -6 |
| Pass DVOA | 16.1% | 12 | 4.8% | 13 | 1 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 10.5% | 31 | 4.5% | 30 | -1 |
| Rush EPA | -0.002 | 9 | -0.078 | 17 | 8 |
| Rush SR | 40.7% | 18 | 36.2% | 6 | -12 |
| Rush DVOA | 4.3% | 11 | -11.8% | 9 | -2 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.37 | 17 | 4.00 | 5 | -12 |
| Yards per Play | 5.1 | 21 | 5.2 | 8 | -13 |
| Points per Game | 21.2 | 18 | 19 | 9 | -9 |
Jaguars Offense vs. Giants Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.052 | 9 | 0.053 | 22 | 13 |
| Total SR | 47.3% | 6 | 45.1% | 20 | 14 |
| Total DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 9.8% | 30 | 19 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.116 | 8 | 0.059 | 14 | 6 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 4 | 46.0% | 17 | 13 |
| Pass DVOA | 25.1% | 8 | 12.0% | 20 | 12 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.5% | 9 | 6.0% | 24 | 15 |
| Rush EPA | -0.037 | 15 | 0.043 | 29 | 14 |
| Rush SR | 42.1% | 12 | 43.8% | 24 | 12 |
| Rush DVOA | -7.7% | 17 | 6.6% | 28 | 11 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 3.86 | 30 | 5.05 | 30 | 0 |
| Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.8 | 23 | 12 |
| Points per Game | 23 | 15 | 18.8 | 7 | -8 |
Giants at Jaguars: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Daniel Jones
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.099 | 11 |
| AY/A | 6.5 | 19 |
| QBR | 54.7 | 14 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.3 | 20 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -30.1
2022: Trevor Lawrence
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.095 | 12 |
| AY/A | 6.9 | 15 |
| QBR | 55 | 13 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.0 | 17 |
Career: Trevor Lawrence
- AY/A: 5.6
- QB Elo per Game: -42.9
Key Matchup: Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars Rush Defense
We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.0% rush rate), which is hard to do in today’s NFL — but I guess that’s what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.
Barkley leads the league with 119 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Jaguars defensive line and linebacking unit.
| Rank | RBs | Opp Defense | DL Rank | LBs Rank | RB-DL Edge | RB-LB Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG | JAX | 13 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
As mediocre as the Giants are on offense — 43.8% success rate (No. 18), 5.1 yards per play (No. 21) — they’ve been good running the ball, ranking No. 9 in rush EPA per play (-0.002), whereas the Jaguars defense has been average against the run (-0.078 rush EPA, No. 17).
Barkley (shoulder), LT Andrew Thomas (elbow) and C Jon Feliciano (groin) are all dealing with injuries, but they practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so they should play this weekend.
I have these two teams as about even in my power ratings. And in 2022 the difference between Jones and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been marginal and maybe nonexistent.
- Daniel Jones: 0.099 EPA + CPOE (No. 11) | 54.7 QBR (No. 14)
- Trevor Lawrence: 0.095 EPA + CPOE (No. 12) | 55 QBR (No. 13)
And I don’t see the Jaguars as having a home-field advantage of three points.
So if the Giants — really Barkley — can run the ball effectively against the Jaguars, they have a good chance to cover.
Best Line: Giants +3 (-110, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +1.25
Limit: Giants +2
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